Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

For non hacks, even if Virginia were a "solid blue state" like New Jersey, it clearly has red areas and swing areas and you can glean a lot of info based on how they vote.  The 2017 election made clear that Republicans were tanking in the suburbs, and especially educated suburbs.  To think how it votes in 2021 says nothing about the next election is ridiculous.  It tells you info on how regions are voting and you can put it into context that it's a year out and things could change.  Especially since both parties appear to be nominating bland white guys who aren't super controversial and bring their own baggage into the race.

New Jersey also has red and swing areas. Even though Murphy may be heavily favored, I think it's still somewhat worth watching.

And Virginia and New Jersey didn't even vote that far apart at the presidential level. The gap between them was much smaller than the gap between Virginia and, say, Maryland or Massachusetts.

Yes.  I just am partial to watching Virginia for obvious reasons - though if the GOP kept NJ close I think that would indicate a catastrophic year for Dems as Phil Murphy doesn't even seem to be doing a bad job.  And for that matter, Virginia is about as far from the national popular vote as North Carolina is the other way.  But I'm sure no-one would disagree that a NC election can tell us about the national picture.

The point is even states that lean one way can tell us things, despite MT Treasurer's unsubstantiated assertions to the contrary here.  An obvious example of this is Scott Brown's off year election to the senate in Massachusetts, a profoundly bluer state than Virginia.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why isn't anyone polling the VA Gov. race, now that the candidates are set in stone ?

The Dems still have an alibi primary, but no other than McAuliffe will win there ...

I'd even like a Trafalgar poll from there.

Because it's May?  And it's not a Presidential election?

[Non Swing Voter]

There is a lot of disourse and debate on Twitter whether Yohngkin will carry Fairfax or Loudoun counties or not.

Well andectoally, people are still wearing masks in public inside in Nova. So I do rate both counties as Safe Tmac.

You're trolling right?

[Non Swing Voter]

You are right, I should know better than to promote unsubstantiated "Virginia is an unrepresentative blue state" claims which are a mere product of my fantasy and clearly not based in any actual data/voting patterns. If Republicans can’t even make Virginia genuinely competitive, how will they ever rebound in PA, WI, NV, AZ, or MI? Or keep it within single digits against the Fink?

Then again, I still mix up Arlington and Fairfax, so what do I know?

You should ponder that question.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is the Democrats' campaign really just boiling down to Orange Man Bad? It's bad enough that he's completely dominated national discourse since June 2015, but he's not even president anymore. He's basically Grampa Simpson yelling at a cloud. At least in a state-level race, not everything needs to come back to him.

Why wouldn't it?  Trump still dominates the GOP and Trump is probably the least liked politician among the Virginia electorate.  It would be political malpractice for Democrats to not talk about Trump in every ad.  It might cost them a bit in rural parts of the state but those parts are completely irrelevant to the math of getting elected in Virginia which is all about NOVA, Richmond, and Virginia Beach.

[Non Swing Voter]

Because literally no one in Virginia can tell the difference between the two candidates for that office (Lt. Governor).  they haven't distinguished themselves.  their ads are the usual, I support women and abortion and hate guns, and love healthcare... ok ... I have no idea who I will vote for.  I wish MT Treasurer (in touch voter with extensive knowledge of Arlington/Fairfax demographics) could help me out. 

On Gov. I am going to vote for Terry because he's the most likely to beat Trumpkin.  Though I do like Foy and her ads.  If she ran for Lt. Gov. I would definitely vote for her....

For AG I'm voting for Herring because the other dude is clearly way too inexperienced for the job in my opinion.  It looks like he is barely out of law school and as far as I can tell he's mostly worked in politics.

For Lt. Gov. I'll probably just leave it blank.

[Non Swing Voter]

Because literally no one in Virginia can tell the difference between the two candidates for that office (Lt. Governor).  they haven't distinguished themselves.  their ads are the usual, I support women and abortion and hate guns, and love healthcare... ok ... I have no idea who I will vote for.  I wish MT Treasurer (in touch voter with extensive knowledge of Arlington/Fairfax demographics) could help me out. 

On Gov. I am going to vote for Terry because he's the most likely to beat Trumpkin.  Though I do like Foy and her ads.  If she ran for Lt. Gov. I would definitely vote for her....

For AG I'm voting for Herring because the other dude is clearly way too inexperienced for the job in my opinion.  It looks like he is barely out of law school and as far as I can tell he's mostly worked in politics.

For Lt. Gov. I'll probably just leave it blank.

I mean the tea leaves seem pretty clear to me. Ayala is aligned with Northam and House Democratic leadership and other establishment elements, and was endorsed by them. She endorsed Biden in the 2020 primary. Rasoul is aligned with Warren/Sanders Democrats, and was endorsed by the Sunrise Movement and so forth. He endorsed Warren in 2020. Guzman endorsed Sanders but she dropped out, so Rasoul takes over that lane.

And those are the frontrunners, with a pretty clear ideological divide. Besides that, McClellan has support in Hampton Roads but Northam having beef with her would seem to block her out of the establishment lane. Perryman has a lot of inexplicable endorsements in Fairfax County but I don't think he's broken out of the pack at all. Levine has a lot of money but I've literally door knocked a lot in his district and only one person mentioned his name. Warren has no money or support and is irrelevant.

So like, I could be wrong, but it seems like a pretty clear choice between the two wings of the party. And then with that you also look at the representational aspects. Is it bad if the Dems nominate an all-male slate for the 3rd time in a row, with Rasoul? Is it a dire mistake if the Dems nominate an all-NOVA ticket of McAuliffe/Ayala/Herring?

That's what you have to work with. Platform/positions is not very relevant, they're all Dems and can all break Senate ties just as easily.

Thank you for that clarification.  If that's the case then they are doing a bad job with messaging because I really had no idea who was on the Bernie side versus the Biden side.  If that's the case though, I'll definitely be voting for Ayala. 

And no I don't think it's a dire mistake to nominate an all NOVA ticket.  All Dems need to do is juice turnout in NOVA and perform as usual among minority voters downstate.  They might not win by a Biden margin but they'll win. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Trumpkin's ads are still so bad.  All I take from it: "I'm tall, white, and love Jesus.  We need a new day in Virginia."

Where does he think he's running, South Carolina?

[Non Swing Voter]

It's really too bad b/c Caroll Foy would've been a good pick if not for McAuliffe. Oh well.

Also LOL @ Fairfax

She should have run for Lt. Gov.  I think T-Mac and her would have made a good ticket.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself. 

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

[Non Swing Voter]

With McAuliffe successfully consolidating Democratic support in a multi-candidate primary & Dem turnout nearly-matching the 2017 primary, this clearly looks like the makings of a 3% Lean D win.

maybe not 3%, but I don't get why it is so unreasonable to expect it in the 5-7 range.

youngkin is a lot more appealing to the state than trump was.

It is a solid blue state at this point.

He's really not though.  His entire campaign is about pitching himself as an "outsider" (i.e., like Trump) and he talks about his "faith" in an obviously *wink* *wink* I hate abortion and gays kind of way.  He's just as unappealing as Trump with 1/10 the charisma.  That said, it could be in the 5-7 range just because it's an off year so you never know.  But I expect it to be closer to 10.

[Non Swing Voter]

Glorious night

Why? besides perhaps higher than expected turnout (although still lower than 2017 and factoring in population growth of the state), the man widely expected to win, won.

Congrats on a boring mundate white dude who was already governor...yet again becoming governor.

Also, I guess none of you are bothered by him channeling his inner trump here?

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1402086987000074242

The only thing Trumpy about this post is you trying to equate the Florida recount with Trump's obvious post election lies and temper tantrums.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am seeing a lot of takes on twitter that Loudoun County will be won by Youngkin.

Youngkin would have to win by at least 10 statewide in order to carry Loudoun and that is only because Youngkin can only improve so much on Trump in the west and far west and I can not see rural African American's in the east and south side swining to Youngkin.

The range of the election statewide is between Youngkin + 10 to Tmac +7. Most likely outcome is Tmac by 1 to 3%.

95% Youngkin loses Loudoun.

Of course Youngkin will lose Loudoun.  Loudoun is democratic because of demographic changes as opposed to moderate whites (though there's some of that going on too).  Youngkin's best strategy is to pretend to not be conservative and try to cut into the margin in Fairfax. A lot more to be gained and more swing voters but likely not nearly enough to actually win statewide even if he pulled off the juggling act that Gillespie failed to.  He's basically just a more successful, better looking version of Gillespie.

[Non Swing Voter]

Kind of amazing that Ayala won all of the population centers in Virginia including the entire urban crescent and it still wasn't a blowout.  This is a good reminder that margins matter.  Did Biden flip a lot of areas in 2020?  No but he cut Trump's margins a few points here and there in some working class areas and expanded his margins in suburbs.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lt. Gov. map is pretty interesting.  It really shows that Northern Virginia is now able to completely determine democratic primaries.  Jones easily won the VB area and Richmond was essentially a tie.  But it was still a near blowout because of Northern Virginia.  Herring also seemed to heavily outperform in educated areas.  Basically demographic groups performed exactly how you'd expect and you can see how the state is trending.

[Non Swing Voter]

Polls in Virginia underestimate Democrats lately and the error is usually concentrated in NOVA and Richmond suburbs because you get a lot of waffly UMC moderates who act as if they're undecided and maybe think they are but then vote heavily democratic.  I think it's more pronounced in national elections than state ones (because they are afraid of being taxed) but you should probably add 3 points to each of the Dems in the poll above.  Surprised that T-Mac is underperforming others on the ticket.  Probably because Youngkin is wasting his fortune blanketing the airwaves right now.

[Non Swing Voter]

The last gubernatorial election heavily underestimated Northam and I won't be surprised if it happens again. I don't really care how polls over- or under-estimated Biden or Senators tho, those are pretty different races.

Agreed on the senators and Biden, but the fact that McAuliffe himself was heavily overestimated in 2013 when running for the same office could be relevant here.

State has changed a lot since then. 

Arlington is still not in Fairfax but NOVA is very different and rural southwest Virginia is decaying (and largely maxed out for the GOP) so any polling error is probably in favor of Youngkin.  Plus I just don't see Trumpkin bringing any special qualities or anything to the race that can cause some undetected polling error in his favor.  He literally looks like Brett Kavanaugh but with 1/10 the charisma. 

Off topic but his latest ad is terrible.  It's 50 old white guys walking one way and him (literally an old white guy) walking a different way saying he's not like every other politician. 

[Non Swing Voter]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

Yeah, that's unrealistic IMO.  Between Trump being out of office and Republicans having a much stronger candidate than the alt-right curious former Enron lobbyist they ran last time, there's every reason to expect a closer election this time. 

IMO it will be similar to the 2013 margin, the legislature will flip and so could LG.  They are sleepwalking into this and really could blow it.   

Youngkin is definitely not a much stronger candidate.  His commercials are awful.  He's running an out of touch campaign.  He's basically just a wealthier Gillespie.  Which I guess counts for something but he's definitely less savvy than Gillespie was.  He's basically running as if the electorate were South Carolina not Virginia. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do morons like Youngkin, who secretly want to get into politics/are interested in politics, make statements that can easily come back to haunt them like that? 

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do morons like Youngkin, who secretly want to get into politics/are interested in politics, make statements that can easily come back to haunt them like that? 

Because when you aren't actively politicking, there's no use in engaging in the performative hyperbolics that politicking has been reduced to (especially when interacting with somebody who has direct influence over your bottom line).

Then just say nothing, why suck up?  he knew he was going to eventually get into politics.  people don't wake up one day and say "I'm gonna run for governor."  The fact that he couldn't keep his mouth shut makes me think he has poor judgement and would do a piss poor job running the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

There is already violence happening..

The aftermath of nov 2nd will be intense and there is no reason not to expect mass violence throughout the state.  Several state national guards will have to be called in.

Literally no-one will care when Youngkin loses, not even Youngkin voters.  He doesn't inspire a cult following like Trump did.  He's as interesting as wet paint which is also a standard beige tone.

[Non Swing Voter]

Youngkin can improve in southern Virginia, true.  I was pretty surprised in 2017 when everything but NOVA was coming in and it was basically 50/50 in the returns.  I expect Youngkin might lead the rest of the state by a bit.  But for him to actually win he definitely needs to cut the margin down (perhaps substantially) in Fairfax, and focusing on garbage conservative social issues like this PE teacher who probably just wants to become this weeks right wing celebrity on FoxNews isn't going to do it. 

On the surface Youngkin looks like a good candidate (business focus, from NOVA, not a politician) but thus far he's run an absolute garbage campaign and quite frankly he's looking like a clown with all this culture war BS.  It's absolutely perplexing why he's focusing on social issues as a Republican in a state like Virginia.  My only thought is that Republicans have some kind of internal metric showing that their voters are less likely to vote than Democrats with Trump not on the ballot in an off year.  This might be a real serious issue for them because particularly in a state like Virginia their voters are far far far less educated as a group and therefore less likely to be consistent/reliable voters.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems should run a "positive" commercial touting Trump's endorsement of Youngkin.  That should be enough to win the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

Without using the words.. he is rich... what exactly is making people think youngkin is such a great candidate and an unbeatable titan?

I have been saying this for weeks.  Youngkin is completely overrated.  All he brings to the table is money and an unlikable face.

[Non Swing Voter]

Without using the words.. he is rich... what exactly is making people think youngkin is such a great candidate and an unbeatable titan?

I have been saying this for weeks.  Youngkin is completely overrated.  All he brings to the table is money and an unlikable face.

I think part of it is that people are giving the Virginia GOP credit because for once, they didn't nominate the most outwardly crazy candidate (Chase).

And all they had to do was not hold an actual primary.