Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

538 has a poll average tracker so we can ignore RCP:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/

Do they ban trash polls? 

Will they ignore Trafalgar?

[Non Swing Voter]

It's really hard to square the CA recall numbers in Orange County with the idea that Youngkin is close enough in NoVA to make this a real race.

Yeah.  Basically this.

Youngkin is from NoVa (Fairfax) but he's not particularly appealing to NoVa voters that signals any result better than how the GOP is performing in UMC suburbs nationally (i.e., terrible).

[Non Swing Voter]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

If you adjust for Griffith running unopposed, the margin is similar to Biden/Trump, but slightly better for the GOP. The improvement is solely the result of Biden keeping VA-01 close (4 point loss) while Wittman crushed his opponent (a twitter progressive with a muslim name). All races besides 01/09 had extremely close margins to the presidential.

Wexton did poorly compared to Biden, too. No one noticed though since she still won by double digits.

That's because she's significantly more liberal than the district.  She's my congresswoman.  She basically runs like she's in one of the other 2 NOVA districts even though this one is a bit less liberal.  Not too liberal to win easily though.

Or because there’s still a big bloc of voters that still haven’t shifted their voting habits downballot yet. She isn’t much more liberal than Biden is. It’s normal for there to be a lag in voting patterns. You can see this in Democrats doing better than Biden in many rural Midwestern House seats, or in Republicans doing a lot better than Trump in newly blue suburban seats in California, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia.

Perhaps on paper, but her focus is much more on cultural stuff and she's not afraid to emphasize things like gun control, transgender rights.  If you listen to her main issues it's extremely liberal on social issues, more nuanced on fiscal stuff.  She's basically playing to people like me (which I guess makes sense given that I live in her district) but not really extending an olive branch to middle of the road voters in the district (other than on taxes).  I'd expect her to take a hit on this a bit, though not enough to lose the district other than in a giant red wave year (not gonna happen this time). 

[Non Swing Voter]

Going forward, the Loudoun portion of the current VA 10 will probably be more reliable than the Fairfax portion for Democrats.

Perhaps.  It's had more demographic change than the Fairfax portion.  The Fairfax portion was explicitly carved out to gerrymander Barbara Comstock a district and essentially has all of the wealthy (formerly GOP leaning) areas in it.  That's why Wexton has to tread lightly on taxes.  She winning or coming close to winning essentially all of those rich precincts but if Dems did a huge tax increase she'd probably have to rely a lot more on Loudoun, which is where she's from anyways. 

It will be interesting to see how this part of Fairfax is redistricted.  I am guessing most of it does not remain with Loudoun.  Maybe the McLean and Great Falls portions but that's probably it. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Why are we pretending that VA-10 is even theoretically competitive? It’s not.

Who is saying it's competitive?  It's not competitive.  It's just the least Democratic of the 3 NOVA districts and the constituency is a lot different than the other two.

[Non Swing Voter]

Would note for the record though that a number of blue avatars here argued Barbara Comstock was safe after Trump got elected or that she was highly competitive...  that NOVA only swung because of him, etc. etc.  some of those posts have since been deleted.

[Non Swing Voter]

At what point can Cook's "analysis" be considered "disinformation"? 

Didn't they also say Dems would pick up house seats in 2020?  Among other huge misses.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1441374272602218496

Because of course.

Here we go again.  Dems are going to lose a state that Biden won by 10 points.  Of course this is happening. 

It might be time just to give up. Maybe all these people who said va only voted dem because of trump were right.

I'm sorry, was Trump on the ballot in 2008, 2012, 2013, 2018?  Most of the people making that argument also predicted a 5-10 point recall margin in CA.  If and when they make a correct prediction I'll factor in what they say about the VA race.

[Non Swing Voter]

Going forward, the Loudoun portion of the current VA 10 will probably be more reliable than the Fairfax portion for Democrats.

Perhaps.  It's had more demographic change than the Fairfax portion.  The Fairfax portion was explicitly carved out to gerrymander Barbara Comstock a district and essentially has all of the wealthy (formerly GOP leaning) areas in it.  That's why Wexton has to tread lightly on taxes.  She winning or coming close to winning essentially all of those rich precincts but if Dems did a huge tax increase she'd probably have to rely a lot more on Loudoun, which is where she's from anyways.  

It will be interesting to see how this part of Fairfax is redistricted.  I am guessing most of it does not remain with Loudoun.  Maybe the McLean and Great Falls portions but that's probably it.  

The vibe is like Great Falls is far different from where I live or most of fairfax!

Even the southwestern portion of Fairfax has a very different vibe. Va 10 in its current drawing could theoretically be competitive locally but it should not be a prime target for the GOP.

Yes, Fairfax is a massive and diverse county (politically, geographically, and population wise).  But I mean how many people even live in an area like Great Falls?  The population centers are going to be much more skewed to places like Reston, Herndon, Tysons.  But I will be interested in seeing how McLean, Vienna, and Great Falls vote.  Dems don't need to win Great Falls to win Fairfax but if they are splitting precincts like that then you have a 70-30 blowout a la Trump.  If Youngkin is holding his own and winning Great Falls 60-40 then it's more indicative of a 62-38 kind of race.  I don't see that happening though.  I think he probably wins those mega rich precincts like 52-48 or it's an even split.  I expect these areas to vote a bit more Republican in local elections due to $$$Taxes$$$. 

So we are probably looking at T Mac getting 65-68 in Fairfax.  That's not nearly good enough for Youngkin to win unless turnout is super low.  But early voting doesn't indicate that will happen.

[Non Swing Voter]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

That sounds like a 66-34 T-Mac win in Fairfax, which is definitely not sufficient for Youngkin if he wants to win statewide. 

Oakton is about 34k people, Great Falls is like 17k.  Youngkin could win both, but obviously that's a tiny fraction of Fairfax, and he probably won't win by a big margin.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac's negative vaccine commercials finally dropped.  Basically plays the whole tape of the appalling sh** Youngkin said about getting exceptions.  Perfect timing too as early voting will start kicking into higher gear soon, especially in NOVA where this isn't gonna play well for Trumpkin. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Dude, Cook is way too overrated here.  Yeah the media uses them but isn't one of the many reasons why the media was so far off in their estimates of 2020, saying Dems would pickup house seats when they lost some.  Cook has this tendency to shift races whatever way the wind is blowing and puts way too much stuff in the tossup category IMO.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is going to trigger some folks here.

Terry McAuliffe says $3.5T reconciliation price tag is 'too high'

National politics seeped into Tuesday night’s Virginia governor debate, with the candidates weighing in on the reconciliation price tag, the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and a potential 2024 presidential run for former President Donald Trump.

Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe said he thought $3.5 trillion was “too high” for the Democrats‘ reconciliation bill.

“They got to stop their little chitty-chat up there, and it is time for them to pass it. Let’s get this infrastructure bill passed for America,” McAuliffe said, slamming lawmakers for this week’s chaotic back-and-forth on how to get President Joe Biden’s infrastructure package through Congress.

Virginia is a blue state now, but blue state Republicans like Youngkin are trying to run a Hogan-type campaign, that is why Hogan endorsed Youngkin and I can expect Baker and Christie and Pataki to do the same, that is why Youngkin is zoning in on NOVA because a lot of Loudoun/Fairfax voters like Hogan and Pataki-type candidates, Youngkin reminds them of that "moderate" Republican....

McAuliffe is a center-left Democrat, so he is saying that, but the VA legislature will probably pass their own infrastructure bill in 2022

This should be a local campaign, no national politics

Except he's really not.  Youngkin is a lifetime NRA member.  He is pro life.  He is anti mask mandate, anti any kind of vaccine mandate.  He's completely out of touch with where Virginia voters are, particularly in Fairfax/Loudoun, which is why he will lose.  He is no Hogan.  He's more akin to Marco Rubio, another empty suit "moderate" who will do or say anything to get elected.  But unfortunately for Trumpkin, he's not running in an R+3 state, he's running in a D+9 state.

[Non Swing Voter]

Cannot wait til this stupid race is over and I don't have to see 3-4 Youngkin ads an hour on every channel. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1445506471081299980?s=20

This is definitely the behavior of someone who thinks he has a chance of winning.

Exactly.  He knows he's losing.  He knows his base is unmotivated.  He's just desperately trying to throw stuff at the wall now to see what sticks.  But yeah the polls showing a 2 point race are really believable because ... something something Biden approval.

[Non Swing Voter]

The HOD map is skewed GOP though because the NOVA districts by and large are way more populated than SW VA districts.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

Polling and early numbers aren't showing that at all.

Check out my signature line for past predictions...

[Non Swing Voter]

Gary Pan has been running for years and hasn't made progress.  While I agree that that district will be very telling on margins, it's unlikely to flip and for Youngkin to win, he probably actually needs to flip or come close in a district like that.  I believe that district is basically McLean and Great Falls.  No way Youngkin wins McLean but perhaps he could win Great Falls as that area is probably a bit less diverse and a bit less connected to DC.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, I'd assume both Youngkin and McCauliffe live in that NOVA district, or right around it as McCauliffe is from McLean and Youngkin is from Great Falls... 

[Non Swing Voter]

If you were Youngkin you really want to see more crossover from 2020 in these polls. Maybe they have something internally but being down 3 in a Biden +2 sample isn't really confidence inspiring. This electorate even with a Dem dropoff is unlikely to be below Biden +7-8.

Correct, and major dem dropoff is highly unlikely given that the Dem electorate in Virginia is MUCH more educated than the GOP electorate.  It's probably one of the most polarized electorates in terms of education in the country.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hot take: polarized Virginia electorate votes how it normally does and T-Mac wins by high single digits despite this nonsense polling.  Most of the people trumpeting Youngkin's chances here are the same ones who actually believed the Recall vote would be close rather than the CA electorate voting how it normally does. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/lizchar/status/1448019083891552261

Youngkin's campaign is like a well-oiled machine.  His hand is on the pulse of what Virginia voters care about.

[Non Swing Voter]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Not really.  You cannot compare a gov. election early and mail turnout with Presidential election early and mail turnout (during the height of a pandemic).  It's obviously apples to oranges.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/lizchar/status/1448019083891552261

Youngkin's campaign is like a well-oiled machine.  His hand is on the pulse of what Virginia voters care about.

which is so funny considering in an objective sense, vaccine mandates would do the opposite, and actually push more people to get vaccinated, and enjoy Christmas gatherings even more. does Youngkin want people to get covid for the holidays or something?

I don't think he wants them to get covid, in my opinion I think he's just indifferent to people dying as long as he can get fame and notoriety and he thinks going full dipsh** is the way to do it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Not really.  You cannot compare a gov. election early and mail turnout with Presidential election early and mail turnout (during the height of a pandemic).  It's obviously apples to oranges.

Early voting is still pitiful. I wouldn't be too surprised if Youngkin wins at this point.

🙄