2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 646032 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #75 on: November 03, 2020, 07:37:04 PM »
Orange still hasn't come in, it's not over yet.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #76 on: November 03, 2020, 07:45:13 PM »
In a lot of the counties Trump is matching his old numbers but Biden is increasing on Hillary because no third party vote essentially.  If this trend continues it's going to be really bad in states like MI/WI/PA for Trump.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #77 on: November 03, 2020, 07:59:54 PM »
Starting to freak out.  Any good news for Biden right now?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #78 on: November 03, 2020, 08:10:46 PM »
It's very clear what's happening.  The election is being decided along educational lines.  That's why Texas is trending left and Florida is stubbornly right. 

We need big numbers out of the Philly suburbs for Biden.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #79 on: November 03, 2020, 08:14:40 PM »
Quote from: Beet on November 03, 2020, 08:13:45 PM
Biden is only doing 2 points better than Hillary Clinton in Harris... it's done.

Not if turnout is way up and suck out more votes.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2020, 08:16:33 PM »
NUMBERS STARTING TO COME IN FROM PENNSYLVANIA!
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #81 on: November 03, 2020, 08:17:18 PM »
I don't think these votes are coming in the way we thought.  Look at PA, no red mirage, the votes are almost exclusively D leaning.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #82 on: November 03, 2020, 08:20:36 PM »
looks like Biden campaign was correct to go for the rustbelt strategy rather than the sunbelt....
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #83 on: November 03, 2020, 08:25:33 PM »
Quote from: gracile on November 03, 2020, 08:24:22 PM
The NC numbers so far seem to be in line with a Biden win, no?

Yes, this is the state I'm most optimistic about for Biden.  If Biden wins this then it's a realigning election where educated upper middle class suburbs are clearly aligning with Democrats nationally, not just in places like NOVA.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #84 on: November 03, 2020, 08:39:43 PM »

Yeah but isn't the vast majority of the NC total vote from the early vote?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #85 on: November 03, 2020, 08:47:27 PM »
Quote from: I will now accept my accolades on November 03, 2020, 08:40:58 PM
Wow...maybe my prediction actually will come true. Also what is happening in Allegheny?

what was your prediction?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #86 on: November 03, 2020, 08:58:49 PM »
As much as people said not to look at the early vote, I feel like the early vote made me most optimistic about NC of all the southern states and I still feel that way...
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #87 on: November 03, 2020, 09:02:08 PM »
New Mexico was a poll closing time win for Biden.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #88 on: November 03, 2020, 09:02:42 PM »
I think the Trump campaign did have a good grasp on the electorate.  They knew FL was good.

But they also threw a hissy fit about PA.  This makes me think Biden is still favored there.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #89 on: November 03, 2020, 09:05:42 PM »
Is The NY Times map screwed up?  It shows Biden having 285,000 votes in LeHigh county in PA.  That can't be right?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #90 on: November 03, 2020, 09:10:38 PM »
Can we just saw off the southern border of Georgia and let Florida float into the ocean already?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #91 on: November 03, 2020, 09:17:04 PM »
They fixed Lehigh.  I think they just added 200k to Biden's total by accident.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #92 on: November 03, 2020, 09:20:38 PM »


tell me this is real, I want to believe.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #93 on: November 03, 2020, 09:26:05 PM »
The NYTimes map now has totally different numbers for Alleghany County PA.

Did Russians hack all these systems?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #94 on: November 03, 2020, 09:30:53 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 03, 2020, 09:28:22 PM
If TX is within 2-3 pts, that makes me think that AZ/NV/NM are fine for Biden...

Biden already won NM.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #95 on: November 03, 2020, 09:32:23 PM »
My friend told me there are STILL people waiting in line to vote in Montgomery County, PA.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #96 on: November 03, 2020, 09:33:00 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on November 03, 2020, 09:32:24 PM
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on November 03, 2020, 09:30:48 PM
Hidalgo County, Texas

Biden: 59%
Trump: 40%

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 28%


Uhhh, is anyone else concerned by like the 20% swing to Trump in like exclusively Mexican-American counties?

I mean this is like Bush in 2004 levels amongst hispanics. Regardless of who wins, this is going to be the story of the night.

He literally staked his political career on hispanics being evil and they vote for him.  Don't get it.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #97 on: November 03, 2020, 09:43:03 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on November 03, 2020, 09:38:34 PM
Can someone tell me about what we currently see in Virginia.
What's up here.

I think you're seeing the same day vote.  The early vote might not be in at all, which is going to skew tremendously to Biden.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #98 on: November 03, 2020, 10:00:50 PM »
Lots of new votes coming in in Virginia.  Massive swing towards Biden and he's now leading big everywhere in NOVA.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #99 on: November 03, 2020, 10:02:03 PM »
The massive Virginia swing just now in Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax should be a reminder that this election is highly unusual and the particular batch that's counted (early, mail, vs. Election Day) is very important. 
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