2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Non Swing Voter]

Meanwhile AP still hasn't given Biden Michigan.

Chances are Trump will only win NC and possibly GA out of everything left.

I'm hoping for a North Carolina win for Biden & Cunningham, even if its less than 500 votes.

Unfortunately, NC looks like the least likely state for Biden at this point (other than Alaska). 

I am a lil hopeful of Georgia though.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1324104075038711808?s=20

None of that is accurate.  Most are early ballots that were dropped off.

Second, the PA margin is 320k and there are more than that outstanding.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1324148708754313217

It's nice to see people of all cultures and backgrounds coming together to say F&&& OFF to Trump.

[Non Swing Voter]

Van Jones is such a Debbie Downer. Is he ever satisfied?

been watching CNN for a few years and can confirm that no, he isn't.

[Non Swing Voter]

Nicole Wallace said that the Biden team and Trump team are actually talking about White House transition.

It’s over, and it looks like in the end he might actually go away somewhat willingly.

Source???

Yeah gonna need a source for something like that.  Too unbelievable to be real unless they know he's gonna lose in Georgia.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324152903364304896

Biden +4.3 is not good to be clear, but it does indicate that states like Arizona and Georgia (and even North Carolina) are moving left faster than the nation at large. This would be good news for the 2024 nominee.

(Nevada + Arizona + Georgia + North Carolina + Minnesota = 275)*
*census will change totals slightly

Notice the common thing about all those states (except maybe MN) = all are fast growing, many gaining electoral votes too (and MN is keeping up its population more than other midwest states).  The GOP is shrinking.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump's margin is down to 200,000.

PA is getting there.
Has anyone worked the numbers recently with the new data.
If we continue to see the same rate of closing-the-gap (assume), where will PA be?

I did it a little while ago with some estimates that seemed reasonable to me and my math was that Biden wins the state by 125,000 votes when all votes are counted.

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump's margin is down to 200,000.

PA is getting there.
Has anyone worked the numbers recently with the new data.
If we continue to see the same rate of closing-the-gap (assume), where will PA be?

I did it a little while ago with some estimates that seemed reasonable to me and my math was that Biden wins the state by 125,000 votes when all votes are counted.

Wow. Really?
By that much?

There's a pretty significant chunk of votes out.  You have to remember that most of these are Democrats even in Republican counties.  I've seen a number of counties flip from red to blue as soon as the early vote gets inputted.  

[Non Swing Voter]

So what are the differences that accounted for Republicans winning Ohio in a blowout and losing Wisconsin and Michigan?

Ohio shifted left as well. Trump had a 9 point cushion there.  He had no room for loss in MI/WI.

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden's on track to win Pennsylvania.

He's far exceeding Hillary in the Philly area.  Even if he just MATCHED Hillary's Philly numbers (he'll do better) he'd net another 140k votes.  Not even counting the remaining suburban vote out there (lots).  Plus Pittsburgh.  Plus he's winning the mail in vote in the scattered red counties throughout the state that haven't reported.

I'd be extremely surprised at this point if Biden did NOT win PA.

[Non Swing Voter]

PredictIt giving Biden better odds in PA than AZ.

some uncertainty in AZ.

It's really no contest in PA in my mind at this point.

Biden is consistently getting 80% of the vote in mail ins and there's a ton left and a ton left in Philly in particular.

[Non Swing Voter]

Folks can probably stop panicking about AZ and NV since GA is looking all but gone for Trump at this point with where the outstanding ballots are coming from.

do you know how many are outstanding?

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I agree with this analysis and it also tells me that the GOP could get destroyed in 2022 when it faces an educated electorate and a lot fewer Trump fanatics.

[Non Swing Voter]

Anyone know when Philly numbers are coming in?  I'm not worried about what they'll say but I want the bedwetters to be distracted so they stop wetting the thread.

[Non Swing Voter]

Do we know anything about the makeup of these Arizona votes being reported late?

sounds like 325,000 from Maricopa and 200,000 from assorted other counties now.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

[/b]

As a black person, I actually find your post to be offensive and untrue. Call me an SJW, but you'll never know what it's like to be black. Just. Stop. Biden is winning, so clearly this "SJW nonsense" must be working.

If that's the case, why did Democrats get clobbered on Long Island?

Because Long Island sucks.  

[Non Swing Voter]

do we know exactly how many ballots are left in each Arizona county right now?  I guess I could extrapolate from the percentages above but would be easier if there was a site that already did this.

(also, I don't think this matters because it's pretty clear Biden is going to win Pennsylvania)

[Non Swing Voter]

It's kind of amazing all the lengths Trump has gone to:

1) Getting Kanye on the ballot

2) Slowing down the post office

3) Suing to stop vote counting

4) Massive misinformation campaign in South Florida

Wouldn't the more direct route to re-election have been to deal with the pandemic responsibly?  

[Non Swing Voter]

Stu's getting a little cranky.

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1324199866923425793

He's not alone

[Non Swing Voter]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

Bumping this forward because I don't think it was seen.

biden was leading in 524 last time i checked. there's a roughly equal number of counties on both sides that will likely flip once outstanding votes come in, so it should stay in the 520-530 range

The counties Biden flipped are generally much larger suburban ones though.  So he's definitely improving on popular vote numbers overall.

[Non Swing Voter]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

It's fascinating to me that Trump is on track to lose (and lose the popular vote fairly substantially) yet Democrats are doing terrible down ballot, not even winning easy pickups like this one.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324222579675193344

[Non Swing Voter]

Should I be encouraged or discouraged by these Georgia numbers?

It is going to be a nail biter.  within the recount margin (0.5%) no matter who wins.

[Non Swing Voter]

It is fairly obvious that Biden is going to win PA guys...

look at all the counties at 100% reporting.  With the exception of some rural counties where Trump has marginally improved, Biden has improved on Hillary's numbers, sometimes as much as 10%.  

[Non Swing Voter]

These protestors are being very terrible right now. Being a poll worker is stressful enough. Having to worry about protestors outside is just undesirable.
Why can't these people get a life and go home. Stop harassing hard-working men and women critical to our elections going smoothly.

If this is your reaction to 'peaceful protests' by perhaps 100 people who don't seem to be doing much other than standing their and yelling slogans, can I ask what your reaction has been to 4-5 months of rioting, looting and anarchy, murders of countless citizens and police, $2 billion estimated damage and countless public property destroyed and defaced.

All done by a group of people who pretend they care about black people, otherwise known as 'BLM'?

Nice try.  Those Trump enthusiasts are there for one reason only, to intimidate people counting votes.  They are trying to quickly count ballots in a pandemic and these thugs are shouting at the top of their lungs while they're trying to do their jobs.  

Then you guys wonder why Trumpers are considered deplorables by mainstream society.