2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1320167190386122754?s=21

NYC in the House!!!

100k + on Day One from the City alone...

Maybe it's because of Harris County, TX but I'm not really impressed with NY's numbers given its population.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone remember Election Day in 2017 when Virginia politicos were saying Northam was up *so much* in the early morning, and then by noon it got really close and could go any way, and everyone was freaking out?

Then Northam won by almost 10 points?

This next week is going to feel like an extended version of that freak out.

As someone who drove in the rain in northern virginia to vote in 2017, I can confirm the liberal freakouts.

[Non Swing Voter]

The thing I will say about freakouts is that sometimes people should pay attention.  A few people, not just me, were worried about low turnout in Philly in 2016 and a public transit strike going on there t the time.  Everyone on the board thought the idea of Pennsylvania going to Trump was ridiculous, and here we are.  

The FL thing is ridiculous though.  Everyone should just focus on the Dem turnout and not the GOP turnout.  GOP always turns out.  But Dems are turning out too and that's all they need.  I feel like we keep saying this and people keep freaking out about the horserace anyways.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, for those freaking out at FL Dem vs. GOP turnout, these are the numbers by day:

Net change (Dem minus GOP vote)

31,984
20,306
5,646
24,267
52,872
40,223
37,575
32,787
23,472
3,925
12,929
22,575
19,486
20,123
18,763
11,164
2,807
2,780
5,729
-18,094
-34,912
-37,049
-23,278

The last 4 days GOP voters have cut into the DEM lead but it's not like they're posting a huge advantage each day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, for those freaking out at FL Dem vs. GOP turnout, these are the numbers by day:

Net change (Dem minus GOP vote)

31,984
20,306
5,646
24,267
52,872
40,223
37,575
32,787
23,472
3,925
12,929
22,575
19,486
20,123
18,763
11,164
2,807
2,780
5,729
-18,094
-34,912
-37,049
-23,278

The last 4 days GOP voters have cut into the DEM lead but it's not like they're posting a huge advantage each day.

Didn't Republicans win the early vote totals last time anyways?

I think so, historically the GOP tends to do well in the FL early vote.

I thought Hillary won the early vote in 2016 (and partisan makeup as well).  But not by a huge margin, whereas Trump won the day of vote by like 250,000.

That said, with the sheer volume of early votes up so much now, I don't think Trump can feel safe if he's "only" down a couple of hundred thousand early votes.  It seems doubtful that he's going to net 250,000 votes on Election Day if so many people vote beforehand.  Possibly but less likely.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why's everyone keep posting simple-minded "Democrats are doomed" takes from this Dave guy who has <1000 followers and doesn't offer much evidence for his takes?

He must be a poster...

[Non Swing Voter]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1320201271392018432

The Numbers look similar but here is the reality
If independent voters are breaking against Trump the comparison with 2016 is kind of pointless

And this year a higher proportion are going to vote early, so the GOP can't expect as big a turnout on Election Day to save them. 

[Non Swing Voter]

McSally is done too, don't forget.  Good riddance.

[Non Swing Voter]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

Oh they will close the gap. Just it will nowhere be near the 16/18 GOP leads, and 18 was still a D+4/5 win in Maricopa despite the GOP advantage. A small GOP EV lead or tie seems to comport with high single digit maricopa lead for Biden  in polls

Then it sounds like Trump is for sure the underdog in Arizona.

[Non Swing Voter]

If AZ is blue then Biden has a 97% chance of winning the election according to 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

and click Arizona twice.

Arizona + Michigan + Wisconsin + Nebraska 2nd safewall.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320219458254884864

So does this mean that the rest of them have been accepted and that there are very few rejections in PA?  I remember hearing people saying that as many as 200k PA ballots could get rejected due to the naked ballot issue.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

1) Again. Great job with this, really useful information.  Thank you!

2) Do you have a target for what Democrats should be aiming for by the end of early voting in terms of turnout?  I am thinking somewhere in the range of 65-70% turnout by the end of early voting would be great.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

So Dems are going to get a 600k mail in ballot lead after all, lol

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

So Dems are going to get a 600k mail in ballot lead after all, lol

Was the talking point that Dems needed a 600k lead in mail in ballots or a 600k lead in all of early voting, in-person and mail combined?

Yes, the talking point moved so many times who knows what it was originally.  Please move to the Flabuckeye model for anything useful.

Yeah not even sure what the 600k was exactly, was mostly just joking.  We should just monitor Flabuckeye's model from now on.

[Non Swing Voter]

BTW - anyone know what's going on in Pennsylvania?  They seem to be lagging big time with reporting.  The real numbers have to be much much higher than what's currently being posted.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems at 47.1% turnout in Florida at the moment.  Hopefully this gets to 50% by tomorrow.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is it not possible?

Yes, please explain why it's not possible (preferably with something more substantive than "I don't believe it.")

Dems voting 99-1 for their candidate, that has never happened.
Plus it is unlikely that independents will break toward anybody by more than 10 percent margin.

1) A national pandemic has never been bungled so poorly either.

2) The people who vote early, particularly by mail, are disproportionally likely to think that the pandemic is risky to their health.

3) Biden was selected by primary voters precisely because he was moderate and could appeal to independents (who notably trended to democrats in 2018 as well).

Why dont you rebut all of the pieces of evidence with your own evidence?

[Non Swing Voter]

FL early vote turnout:

Dems at 47.4% of registered Dem voters.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now elections project says 59.1 million voted.  But there are definitely states where the numbers are delayed and I wonder how many ballots are currently in the mail and not yet received.  I wonder if more like 70 million people have already voted.  The time is really dwindling for Trump to turn around his poll numbers.  He's basically hoping the polls are massively off at this point.

[Non Swing Voter]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Wow registering 30,000 in a city that size so recently seems like a massive amount.  Did Dems basically just microtarget Madison and its suburbs to win Wisconsin this year?

[Non Swing Voter]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Wow registering 30,000 in a city that size so recently seems like a massive amount.  Did Dems basically just microtarget Madison and its suburbs to win Wisconsin this year?

It's been a statewide effort that is worlds more effective than whatever HRC did in 2016.

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

[Non Swing Voter]

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

To be fair, that was coming off 8 years of a Democratic president who spent more time slightly underwater approvals-wise, and with a candidate who was the 2nd most unpopular presidential candidate in history (#1 being Trump). Point being that the Democratic base was unmotivated and Clinton was falling from one bad news cycle to the next.

Meanwhile, now an unpopular and highly controversial incumbent Republican president has fired up the Democratic Party like none other, alienated many voters who previously supported him or might have but sat out 2016, in addition to the myriad drama of 2020.

A lot of this is situational or very candidate-specific. The campaigns themselves weren't terrible. Like, Biden hasn't heavily contested Georgia or Texas but is still in the running to win one or both of them. So campaign investment or lack thereof isn't necessarily a dealbreaker.

I agree with the above.  That's why it is highly annoying that Dems just anointed her rather than running a real primary.  It would have been the same if the GOP anointed Cruz or Rubio instead of Trump.  They would have probably been weaker candidates than Trump.  Running a fair primary will bring out the best candidate.  I guess when I said "HRC campaign" what I should have really said was "HRC" herself but I wanted to be nice to her because the Comey thing was bullsh*t.

And I am definitely not a Bernie Sanders fan as people here know, but the primary process that year was objectively rubbish.

[Non Swing Voter]

After today, Dem turnout in Miami Dade is 41.8%.  Still on the lower end of Dem counties and below their 47.8% statewide average but it's definitely jumped significantly from where it was a few days ago.  The Obama rally seems to have had some impact.

Dems should just focus heavily on boosting Dem turnout there.  The I-4 corridor is looking pretty good for them right now.  I think if they can win I-4 and hold decent margins in South Florida + the gains in Duval, I don't see how Trump wins even with huge turnout in the Panhandle.

[Non Swing Voter]

Have the early vote totals influenced anyone's opinions on any states?

For me I think I'm more optimistic about North Carolina and Georgia.  Especially North Carolina.  We keep hearing about the urban and suburban areas experiencing epic growth there and the rural areas in population decline.  The raw numbers out of some of the democratic counties seem to be bearing that out.  If the urban and suburban areas trend left this election as they are suspected to this could be a double whammy against Republicans: higher margins + a lot more raw vote out of those counties.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans aren't going to catch up by Election Day in Florida.  However +2.2 wasn't great for Dems yesterday.  We need them to turn out 3% a day this week, I think that should be the target.  5 or 6 days of that gets them close to 70%. 

Right now Dems are at 48.5% turnout.