2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

states with over 50% of 2016 turnout already:

Washington
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Texas
New Jersey
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Vermont

Getting close:

Florida (49.8%)

[Non Swing Voter]

states with over 50% of 2016 turnout already:

Washington
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Texas
New Jersey
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Vermont

Getting close:

Florida (49.8%)

He hasn’t updated AZ which is at around 52-53% of 2016

I suspect a bunch of other states are significantly higher too.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

Democrats at 42.7% turnout

If it can go up about 3% a day that would be over 70% by Election Day...

[Non Swing Voter]

States ranked by early vote turnout RELATIVE to what their own total turnout was in 2016

1. Montana - 40.1%
2. Colorado - 38.7
3. Vermont - 38.4%
4. New Jersey - 37.4%
5. North Carolina - 36.9%
6. Texas - 36.7%
7. Washington - 35.7%
8. Georgia - 33.5%
9. Florida - 32.7%
10. Maine - 32.4%
11. New Mexico - 30.4%
12. Oregon - 30.4%
13. Minnesota - 29.9%
14. Iowa - 29.9%
15. Virginia - 29.2%

Source: I did the math

I did this to see which states were being lowballed with their "turnout of their 2016 vote" number due to having high turnout and vice versa. Texas obviously drops from #1 here since they were bottom 5 in 2016 turnout, but the state is still impressively high. The first 4 states are entirely mail-ballot states.

I am confused by this.  What is the percentage of?

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is everybody so obsessed with Florida? It has no senate race on the ballot, there is no chance of flipping one of the state houses, and it will likely only vote for Dems if they don't need it.

Florida is probably one of the states where early vote is more telling.  We know that Democrats need to keep parity with Republicans there to have a great shot of winning.  So we can see how they are turning out each day.  They are probably targeting 80%+ turnout and we can see the number tick up each day.  The numbers are also coming in a lot more than the other big prize, Pennsylvania, which is tallying ballots very slowly.

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA


5,210,532 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,262,736 (43.4%)
Republican: 1,873,912 (36.0%)
NPA/Other: 1,073,884 (20.6%)

Dem lead decreases to 388,824

~504,920 ballots were processed today

Here's the thing.  1/2 a million ballots are being processed a day now and Republicans are only cutting into the lead like 30-40k a day.  Not all that impressive.  Democrats are turning out too and people here are reading too much into the horserace.  Should just look at the percentage turnout of Dems.

[Non Swing Voter]

This link allows you to see on a precinct level, absentee ballots in Virginia

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/absentee-ballots-precinct-nov-2020/

even though ti says potential votes, it's probably pretty close to actual votes because most people are just showing up, getting their ballot and voting all at once. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

Seems like we've been on schedule for 2 nights in a row

So the Nevada freak out starts now?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/BrianDMcBride/status/1319788990162210816?s=19

Is this real? If youth turnout is sustained like this, I would assume the election is over. Are we sure this isn't fake?

those numbers track with the elections project numbers which come from the secretary of state's sites largely.  So yes.  But everyone's turnout is up so 18-29 year olds are still only like 10% of the vote so far.  Although, each day their share of the ballots is trending up.

[Non Swing Voter]

The early results that look the most unexpectedly promising to me continues to be North Carolina. 

First. In 2016, the electorate was 20% black.  So far it's 21% black but 9% are "multiple/other/unknown" so I'd assume some of the unknown would go into that bucket.  So I'm hopeful that black turnout will be up over 2016. 

Second. The Charlotte and Raleigh areas have some of the highest turnout so far and I'm guessing there are a lot more registered voters than 2016. 

The Biden Harris ticket seems like the perfect fit for a state like North Carolina.  They can hopefully bring together AA's and suburban voters and elevate their turnout.  Given the trends in the state that might be enough.

[Non Swing Voter]

Morning data file from the Florida DOE.   Statewide Democrats inching closer to their 2016 EV Turnout number.  Gains from yesterday

Dem-   43.2% (+3.4)
Rep-    36.7% (+4.1)
NPA-    27.4% (+2.8 )



Looking at County specifics-

Larger counties chugging along (go Palm Beach & Pinellas).  However, look at mid-size counties, doing quite well but that is to be expected given they are mostly retirement counties and have the time to vote mid-week.  I expect Larger counties to make a run this weekend (more working class & hopefully souls to the polls)



Note:  Democrats in 3 of Florida's 68 counties have already surpassed '16 EV Turnout.   This includes the relatively large Pasco County- Suburb of Tampa....hmmmmm.  

Democrats in many more counties will surpass EV numbers today.

Most useful info being posted on this site.  Thank you!!

[Non Swing Voter]

Can everyone stop freaking out over the daily partisan breakdown in Florida and just focus on the charts Flabuckey is posting.  Democrats were never going to maintain a 400,000 vote advantage in Florida, that's why it's a battleground state.  The key for Democrats is to get their turnout up.  The single most important number to look at is the percentage of registered democrats voting and how it moves each day.  Flabuckey is providing that info and there should be more focus on that.  Democrats just need to get their people out in Florida, period.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Dems are at 44.3% turnout among registered democrats with 10 days to go.  What more do the bedwetters here want?  The GOP is going to turn out, they always do.  It's not enough if Dems also turn out.  Dems are turning out.  Jesus, take a Xanax.

[Non Swing Voter]

You just never know with Florida

I remember during the 2012 election Mitt Romney was leading in most FL polls and on election night The Obama campaign said that they expected Romney to win Florida

But as the numbers came in on election night Obama pulled off a shocking upset and won a state that even his own campaign said he was going to lose lol

It just goes to show that we dont truly know what FL is going to do until all the votes are counted. So yes the early vote looks ok for Trump so far but things also looked even Better for Mitt Romney in 2012 and look at how that worked out him in the end......

Obama's hurricane Sandy response in NJ probably helped him in FL as well because they are so used to hurricanes and he looked like a good leader working with Christie.

[Non Swing Voter]

Notice they didn't send Obama to North Carolina today, where the black vote is even more determinative.  I think that's because the black vote is turning out big there already. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Georgia numbers

Fulton = 303k (2016 total vote = 439k)
DeKalb = 224k (2016 total vote = 318k)
Cobb = 215k (2016 total vote = 334k)
Gwinnett = 207k (2016 total vote = 331k)

[Non Swing Voter]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

[Non Swing Voter]

To take some red avatars off the ledge in FLA:

From St. Pete Polls -

We continue to poll down ballot races individually to give us a better sense of the statewide.

Trump is down in our polls by so much in Pinellas and Sarasota and Seminole, I want to know where he is picking up votes.

might be picking up votes in miami and doing very strong in rural and non metro florida to the same level as 2016.

Relying on Miami to save you as a Republican is probably not a great spot to be in.  I am doubtful that Miami hispanics are going to flip to Trump by enough of a margin to make up for even mild flips among seniors elsewhere.  Pinellas and Sarasota are populated counties.

Quite a few things to note.

The numbers that we've been seeing in St. Pete's district polls is not just much worse than in 2016, but also considerably worse than what Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott got in 2018. To offset that, Trump doesn't just need to do better in Miami-Dade, but has to significantly improve even on DeSantis/Scott numbers. And the recent poll in rural HD55 show that while he has held on better, he hasn't gained any support either.

So banking on the 25% of the country that is rural while getting crushed in the 25% that's urban and losing handily in the 50% that's suburban wasn't a good strategy for Trump?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320091877014724612?s=21

Honestly, these numbers are underwhelming for Trump IMO in light of the massive Dem VBM advantage.  It seems like the GOP is on track to get the typical 80% turnout, which might have been enough in 2016 when Dem turnout was down but probably not enough this year, especially when Indies are going to swing to Biden.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1320116323309989891

10 days before the election.  Stunning.

[Non Swing Voter]

Anyway... early voted today in Norristown, PA (Montco). PA has fake early voting where you have to request a mail in ballot in person, and then fill it out and return it right there. Waited in line for about 90 mins b/c they only bring in like 5-10 people at a time, but it was clear people were energized to vote and were willing to wait as long as it took. This is also a huge Dem area too.

That sounds promising.  Sounds similar to Fairfax.  Not enough poll workers so the line escalated more than it had to but the suburbanites were angry enough at Trump to stay in line.

[Non Swing Voter]

Maybe a bold prediction but I think we hit 100 million votes by this coming Friday...

[Non Swing Voter]

The other thing about Republican mail in ballot numbers, aside from the good points made about that Trump discouraged mail in balloting so they are people who are pre-disposed to not like Trump... is that many of them are probably voting that way because they are concerned about the pandemic, Trump's worst issue.

[Non Swing Voter]

45.5% of registered democrats in Florida have voted with 10 days to go!

[Non Swing Voter]

Wouldn’t look too deep into the campaign stops.  Trump was in Nevada this week and is going to New Hampshire tomorrow.  Neither are going his way.

yeah and what does that tell you?  he thinks he's behind in the 3 upper midwest states and needs a new path as backup.