2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 175233 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,169
« Reply #225 on: October 15, 2020, 04:15:46 PM »
Todays update has been a bit of a letdown.  Yesterday we got about 3 million votes added.  Only 1.5 million so far today.  Hopefully more states report.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #226 on: October 15, 2020, 04:55:24 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on October 15, 2020, 04:22:18 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 15, 2020, 04:15:46 PM
Todays update has been a bit of a letdown.  Yesterday we got about 3 million votes added.  Only 1.5 million so far today.  Hopefully more states report.

It's fine? The day's not over. There will be big numbers from CA, TX, NC, GA...

I thought the TX numbers were already entered today.  Tonight's numbers won't be available til tomorrow was my understanding.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #227 on: October 15, 2020, 04:55:57 PM »
Quote from: DINGO Joe on October 15, 2020, 04:46:28 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 15, 2020, 04:15:46 PM
Todays update has been a bit of a letdown.  Yesterday we got about 3 million votes added.  Only 1.5 million so far today.  Hopefully more states report.

The guy does have a day job.  It's not a real-time display anyway.  I'm sure when you look at it tomorrow morning it'll be over 20 million and by the start of next week over 25 million.

I thought he has scrapers that are pulling the data automatically, but maybe I misread something.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,169
« Reply #228 on: October 15, 2020, 06:46:10 PM »


yeah something is going on in Texas.  Beto-mentum?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #229 on: October 15, 2020, 07:40:44 PM »
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #230 on: October 15, 2020, 08:27:55 PM »
Who thinks we can hit 35 million votes by the end of next week?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #231 on: October 15, 2020, 08:33:07 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on October 15, 2020, 08:30:42 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 15, 2020, 08:27:55 PM
Who thinks we can hit 35 million votes by the end of next week?

It's possible. More states are starting early voting next week, including Florida. And mail ballots are starting to come in from CO, WA and UT.

I think if tomorrow ends at around 21 million that will be a good sign.  I think the increased early voting + mail ballots starting to come back in some of the bigger states could get us some 4 or 5 million days next week.  Here in Virginia extra early voting locations are starting to open up.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #232 on: October 15, 2020, 09:19:56 PM »
Quote from: DINGO Joe on October 15, 2020, 08:41:49 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 15, 2020, 08:27:55 PM
Who thinks we can hit 35 million votes by the end of next week?

I'd expect 40 million possible more as virtually every state will be reporting something by that point.

cool so our thinking is

35 million = low

40 million = on pace

45+ million = huge

?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #233 on: October 15, 2020, 09:22:32 PM »
Quote from: Flabuckeye on October 15, 2020, 09:17:28 PM
There is only one early voting site per county in Ohio.  All of Cleveland to one site. Ridiculous.
Same in Cincy and Columbus. Thank you to Republicans in the governors mansion and controlling the legislature. 

On another front anyone have any intel why Miami Dade’s numbers didn’t move at all today?

I think that the Secretary of State of Ohio has the option to allow more but is choosing not to. 

I also read that the Mayor of Miami Dade is waiting til as late as possible to open voting in the county for sending out balloting/early voting, which is why Miami's numbers have been slower than other big counties. 

It's really pathetic that Republicans can't just try to govern and instead try to game the system to win.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #234 on: October 15, 2020, 09:23:40 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 15, 2020, 09:19:35 PM
Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

Thought the goal was 600k? 

At any rate it looks like they are on track to blow well past both numbers unless Republicans start voting early in big numbers to keep up with expected Democratic turnout.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #235 on: October 15, 2020, 09:43:08 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on October 15, 2020, 09:26:51 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 15, 2020, 09:19:35 PM
Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

don't dems need at least a 20 point lead going into election day to win?

Right now it's 50-30-20 (Dems, Rep, Ind).  The independents are probably skewing towards Democrats in terms of their actual vote, so right now Democrats probably do have a 20 point lead. 
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #236 on: October 16, 2020, 01:52:51 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 16, 2020, 09:15:30 AM
Pennsylvania Dems certainly are energized:



The fact that this doesn't even include most of the Philly suburbs seems promising.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #237 on: October 16, 2020, 02:33:42 PM »
Quote from: kph14 on October 16, 2020, 02:29:39 PM
North Carolina surpasses 1 million votes cast



wow almost half a million voted the first day of in person voting?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #238 on: October 16, 2020, 02:48:48 PM »
Quote from: Cosmopolitanism Will Win on October 16, 2020, 02:35:49 PM
Quote from: kph14 on October 16, 2020, 02:29:39 PM
North Carolina surpasses 1 million votes cast



Do we have the partisan breakdown?

At 900k it was: 49D, 21R, 29I

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #239 on: October 16, 2020, 03:12:01 PM »
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #240 on: October 16, 2020, 03:38:55 PM »
Beto is going to be governor of Texas at some point isn't he?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #241 on: October 16, 2020, 04:44:10 PM »
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #242 on: October 16, 2020, 04:46:03 PM »
All of the images on tv and voting statistics seem to suggest that minority voters are much more engaged than 2016.  Who would have thought that 4 years of racist vitriol being spewed out of the President's mouth would inspire higher minority turnout.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #243 on: October 16, 2020, 04:58:14 PM »
Maine numbers don't look good for Susan Collins, I'd say they're "concerning" maybe even "very concerning"

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/ME.html
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #244 on: October 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.



Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #245 on: October 16, 2020, 05:09:01 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:05:30 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 16, 2020, 05:03:03 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 16, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Not sure if anyone has posted this, but Ralston has started talking about the NV ballots so far. This is a state where the early vote is a somewhat good indicator of how things will go.



Anyone know where we were in Nevada at this point in 2016?  Those look like really good numbers for Democrats so far.

It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, since early voting was (AFAIK) mostly in-person in 2016, and only absentee voting has happened so far this year (I think in-person starts tomorrow), but here's the data from Week 1 of 2016:

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

Thanks.  The change from R to D is still stunning. 
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #246 on: October 16, 2020, 06:13:21 PM »
Is it possible early vote totals could be wildly larger than expected?  Like could we hit 100 million by Election Day?  I was worried but things are really picking up now.  The total number per day has increased each day progressively.  I think we are over 5 million for the day today.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #247 on: October 16, 2020, 06:25:15 PM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut



Anyone have an idea how the Harris vote is likely to split this year?  I'm assuming it will trend Biden at least a little bit....
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #248 on: October 16, 2020, 06:29:55 PM »
Quote from: Biden +3 in Texas on October 16, 2020, 06:27:46 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 16, 2020, 06:26:57 PM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 16, 2020, 06:15:06 PM
Harris County is an absolute juggernaut



RIP Wesley Hunt
Go deeper, RIP Dan Crenshaw

Really?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169
« Reply #249 on: October 16, 2020, 07:34:49 PM »
I really feel like Biden should start investing more in Texas.  It's clearly trending toward Democrats and the early turnout numbers don't lie.  Hillary did lose it by 9 points but Romney lost Michigan by about 10 in 2012 before Trump won it just barely.
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