2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

basically 15 million votes cast.  I think we are approaching 3 million votes a day now.  I wonder if we can get to 5 million a day nationally at some point?

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1316490663907786753

200k in two days in one county.

[Non Swing Voter]

Comparison for reference:

https://twitter.com/jaspscherer/status/1316474608283983880

[Non Swing Voter]

Am I reading this correctly, 20% of all registered Democrats in Florida have ALREADY votes?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Dem lead at 417K

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1316503969812840451

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1316488931668615169

43% turnout already in one of the most democratic areas of the state...

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1316553809511018496

[Non Swing Voter]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

[Non Swing Voter]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

Probably, but everything is so scrambled this year you really can't go off past comparisons that much.

what kind of margin does Biden need out of Maricopa to win statewide?

[Non Swing Voter]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

Probably, but everything is so scrambled this year you really can't go off past comparisons that much.

what kind of margin does Biden need out of Maricopa to win statewide?

Well, Trump won Maricopa by 45,000 votes last time and he won the state by 90,000, so.....

Alright so he's going to want to be up like 100k there I guess.

[Non Swing Voter]

Over 16 million votes in! 

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

I forget what it was this morning but I want to say close to 13 million.  So about 3 million votes today?

[Non Swing Voter]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

Yes. The largest lead Ds ever had in AZ early vote return in 2016 was about 7k. If AZ Ds maintain a lead, that will be a good sign.


https://mobile.twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1311763867903553536

If that happens in AZ and if early voting numbers are good in WI, MI (as people seem to think), then Biden's easiest path to 270 is probably -> MI + WI + AZ + NE-2 + Hillary states.

I feel really in the dark about PA right now but that would probably be the next most important state to add on.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1316773808808882178

[Non Swing Voter]

6 states over 1 million votes locked in:

Florida
California
Texas
Michigan
Virginia
New Jersey

[Non Swing Voter]

holy crap, Texas is already up to 18.3% of its TOTAL 2016 vote after 2 days of early voting and it seems like the numbers are steady (though not quite as big) today!

[Non Swing Voter]

OK here is what I think the early vote might be pointing to so far.  Trump might be doing slightly better in the upper midwest than the polls indicate.  On the flip side, the polls might not be capturing all of Biden's vote in the south.  TX/GA/FL/NC might be a little bit better for Biden than people currently think.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Florida’s early voting will give us a really good sense of how the state is shaping up. There’s over 5 million mail ballot requests in the state which will almost all be returned probably, and if a few million more vote early, it won’t matter how Republican the Election Day vote is if the vast majority of votes will already have been cast.

Some of those might convert to early voters.  There was just a news report of people in Texas bringing their unused absentee ballots to the early voting station to vote in person instead.

[Non Swing Voter]

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

Right.  Worst case scenario, it means nothing.  Best case, Trump should plan to move.

[Non Swing Voter]

Constantly vacillating between thinking the massive Democratic enthusiasm in early voting is a great sign for November and thinking that it doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know because of the expected partisan disparity in vote method. Whatever the case, nothing looks bad for Democrats so far and that is good in itself.

Right.  Worst case scenario, it means nothing.  Best case, Trump should plan to move.

Also bear in mind that these are locked-In votes (for either party).  A major scandal for either candidate, even in the week before the election, can't change them. 

Yeah, this time in 2016 Hillary had a lead too, but less than 2 million votes locked in.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1316805288792453120

Any Nevada experts that can weigh in?

[Non Swing Voter]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

I think Virginia is going to go for Biden by a wider margin than that.  Trump is absolutely tanking in Northern Virginia, which is 1/3 of the state.  I don't think Trump can withstand a 30+ point deficit in NoVa will still keeping the are to single digits. 

No prediction for Michigan?  They have a ton of vote in.

[Non Swing Voter]

If I made a call based on the data I am seeing
Florida +2-3 Biden
Texas +2 Trump
NC +2 Biden. Of course there isn't as big of a sample compared to Florida, Va, Iowa and Ga yet.
Va +9 Biden
Iowa +1 Biden --- There's a 100,000 democrat lead. This is something we've haven't seen since 2008-2012.
Nevada- really early guess is +3 Biden
Arizona +2-3 Biden -I am using a site that has 317k votes in with a 46k democratic lead. Looking at trends and considering 2018. https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns\
Ga-No party break down but based on the racial breakdown I'll guess tie to +1 for Trump.
Wis - no party break down but I'll guess +4 for Biden.
Pa - +2 to + 4 for Biden

The last few are low accuracy guesses.

I'd strongly caution against interpreting any of the early voting data we have so far as anything other than showing there is high interest and will be high turnout. Polls are going to be a much better indicator pre-election than early voting data, especially because of the partisan lean in early voting/election day in-person voting this year.

Yeah but given that Republicans are trying to suppress turnout and Democrats are trying to promote high turnout, it seems that the parties, who probably have a lot better data than we have access to, agree that high turnout benefits democrats and this indicates turnout is probably going to be high. 

[Non Swing Voter]

I wish the U.S. Elections Project would keep a tally of votes by day.  It seems like we are getting about 3 million a day now.  It would be nice to see how that trends over the next few weeks.  Some states appear to be plateauing while others open up, but I'd still expect the numbers per day to go up for a while.

[Non Swing Voter]

The Secretary of State for TN just released the numbers for the first day of early voting. 273,325!

Jesus, that's like 11% of 2016's total turnout.

Yes, its really shocking considering that TN is not a swing state.

Do we know where in the state these numbers are coming from?