2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1313947284623831040

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like Miami has finally started reporting.  43k cast so far.  22k from democrats.  10k from republicans.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like Miami has finally started reporting.  43k cast so far.  22k from democrats.  10k from republicans.

Is that good?

2 to 1 margin in Dade would be great for Biden if it held, however the early vote is skewing Dem so I'd like to see that margin grow before Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

Yeah but at least you could say that's a battleground state and it's important to vote.  Nobody is actually fearful Trump will win Virginia, people are just turning out in outrageous numbers early to give Trump the middle finger.

[Non Swing Voter]

While I am happy with the turnout so far, I feel like the trend is slowing down a bit.  Maybe I'm overanalyzing, but I was expecting 1 million ballots a day by now approaching 2 million a day by Monday.  Turnout is still high but I expected it to explode a bit more given how many states are now open for voting.

[Non Swing Voter]

While I am happy with the turnout so far, I feel like the trend is slowing down a bit.  Maybe I'm overanalyzing, but I was expecting 1 million ballots a day by now approaching 2 million a day by Monday.  Turnout is still high but I expected it to explode a bit more given how many states are now open for voting.

Some people may vote in person. There is also the issue of how much can mail can be delivered and processed

True but it's plateauing a bit in states where early voting is already prevalent, like Virginia.  I guess it might pick up again as we get closer to the election though.

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

If they do, it's proof that karma exists

I think Karma was proven to exist the day Trump got covid...

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

do we still think Democrats have an advantage in WI given the turnout in Dane and Milwaukee so far?

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

do we still think Democrats have an advantage in WI given the turnout in Dane and Milwaukee so far?

Yup Dems are returning their ballots in a higher rate with stronger turnout from Dane and other blue counties

Great.  If Biden can put away this state I think that would be a big big deal.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am going to guess that If the democrats have at least a 20% lead in early-in person/mail votes in Florida once it totals over 5 million, they'll likely be able to win the state. It would be unimaginable to think that republicans can catch up with the other half of the vote on election day. There's over 5.5 million votes out too so it is possible we will get there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

So in other words you think Dems need a 1 million vote lead before Election Day to guarantee victory?

[Non Swing Voter]

could this backfire because the Democrats have been turning them in quickly whereas the GOP has a lot of outstanding ballots?

It wouldn't be the first or even second time recently that WI Republicans have kneecapped themselves in an attempt to suppress the Democrat's chances of winning.

The state party and others have been amazing this cycle at getting information out to the public. If this holds at the Supreme Court, which I imagine it will, there will be a big push in the last 1-2 weeks for folks to not mail in their ballots, but drop them off.

I feel like Republicans are playing the voter suppression game under the assumption that the GOP is still the party of 20 years ago when UMC college educated people voted for them.  I don't know that these tactics are going to work now that they're the party of Trump.  Lets be honest, a lot of his supporters are screw ups who enjoy his rallies but aren't exactly on top of election laws and timelines.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

up to 6.6 millions votes!

[Non Swing Voter]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

LOL regarding the ridiculous Virginia turnout, that's just pure hatred of Trump fueling it.

Wisconsin too.

What the heck is going on in South Dakota?  There's nothing competitive anywhere on the ballot from president to state legislature. 

someone said it's due to both a gambling and weed ballot initiative.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1314333732522913793

Dem enthusiasm high. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Early voting options are really making it hard for Republicans to suppress the vote this time.

[Non Swing Voter]

Early voting options are really making it hard for Republicans to suppress the vote this time.

I'm really really happy that PA in particular not only implemented vote by mail but basically early voting as well this time around.

Wish they were better at reporting their numbers though...

[Non Swing Voter]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

updated Florida numbers.

Dems up 310k now.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wow big update, numbers up to almost 8 million now!

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Non Swing Voter]

I think we are at the point where we start getting 2 million or more new votes a day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Maybe Virginia comes close to 100%?  It's a growing state (so more registered voters than 2016) and it's seeing heavy turnout already and Fairfax hasn't really opened yet.  Right now it's at 22.3% turnout. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1314664637267349505

[Non Swing Voter]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

[Non Swing Voter]

PA numbers picking up, but still very low compared to other states.  But the partisan gap is enormous.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

198k D
42k R

3:1. That electoral makeup is reminiscent of MN in 2018.

Whats your analysis?  MN was a democratic blowout in 2018 right?