2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Non Swing Voter]

Seen basically no discussion about California since the new census release.  This really seems like a state where Democrats could pick up a few seats.  I'm assuming Dem areas grew faster than GOP areas and the GOP already has a lot of marginal seats to defend.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seen basically no discussion about California since the new census release.  This really seems like a state where Democrats could pick up a few seats.  I'm assuming Dem areas grew faster than GOP areas and the GOP already has a lot of marginal seats to defend.

There are a lot of Dem seats in L.A. County which are short of people and adjacent to other underpopulated Dem districts.

It's hard to talk about California because no one knows what the commission will do. I remember 10 years ago how unpredictable it all felt especially because the geography permits so many combinations.

I'd hope that the commission is somewhat lean Democratic at least.  You'd assume that in a state as Dem and liberal as California that even if you just get random people on a commission they'd have a Dem bias.

[Non Swing Voter]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Calvert may or may not get 47, plus it looks like a chocobo if you squint.







For the curious:

Partisan leans, 2016-2020 composite


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 50.95% D    43.35% R   

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 52.21% D    47.79% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 51.02% D    48.98% R   

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

How do we make this map happen?

[Non Swing Voter]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering. 

[Non Swing Voter]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering. 

Is that what we're expecting or does CA have some type of independent commission as well?

It has a commission but one that is probably D favored. So we won’t see ugly gerrymanders but a 47-5 map or so is not out of the question.

I would love to believe this, but do we really think it will be that good?  I mean that's almost as close to a max Dem gerrymander as you can get (which people here say is 49-3).

[Non Swing Voter]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering.  

Is that what we're expecting or does CA have some type of independent commission as well?

It has a commission but one that is probably D favored. So we won’t see ugly gerrymanders but a 47-5 map or so is not out of the question.

I would love to believe this, but do we really think it will be that good?  I mean that's almost as close to a max Dem gerrymander as you can get (which people here say is 49-3).

well I'll start by saying you need a minimum of 4 GOP seats without doing ugly spirals (1, 4, 23, 42), a legislative map would probably move to eliminate two of those, but with a commission it's practically impossible, especially since going after say 4 or 42 would endanger neighboring seats. Now with those 4 out of the way, we face a bunch of issues, namely seats like CA-07 and CA-10 which need to expand into surrounding red turf, and if we get through that without making a Trump seat, we end up with the tricky area of SoCal, if the choice is made to pull the 50th out of Riverside, yes it'd make the 50th bluer, but where would it go? It can't really go south since the southern seats are all squeezed between 50 and the Mexican border, so you turn north, where surprise, surprise, there turns out to be a sizably Republican (though less so now than in 2020) chunk of towns collectively known as south OC. Democrats got very lucky that this area got split in 2012, it seems unlikely they can have that happen again and get the favorable 50th configuration. So imo the 5th GOP seat comes from SoCal, though as I showed we could very well get 6 or 7 GOP seats, you absolutely need 4 though, the ugly gerrymanders required to eliminate LaMalfa or McCarthy are not happening, and as you see in Calamity and leecannon's maps, eliminating Calvert and McClintock is particularly ugly and very unlikely. best you can hope for is 4 Trump seats, though realistically it's more like 6-8 probably. It should be noted this is still very D favorable (as is CA geography), Trump won 34% of the vote in CA in 2020, I challenge someone to draw me a clean map where he wins 34% of the seats (18 seats). Geography hurts Democrats in many states (WI and MI come to mind), but it is their friend in CA.

Interesting.  So which Republicans do you think are most at risk of being screwed over?  The Orange County ones?

[Non Swing Voter]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering.  

Is that what we're expecting or does CA have some type of independent commission as well?

It has a commission but one that is probably D favored. So we won’t see ugly gerrymanders but a 47-5 map or so is not out of the question.

I would love to believe this, but do we really think it will be that good?  I mean that's almost as close to a max Dem gerrymander as you can get (which people here say is 49-3).

well I'll start by saying you need a minimum of 4 GOP seats without doing ugly spirals (1, 4, 23, 42), a legislative map would probably move to eliminate two of those, but with a commission it's practically impossible, especially since going after say 4 or 42 would endanger neighboring seats. Now with those 4 out of the way, we face a bunch of issues, namely seats like CA-07 and CA-10 which need to expand into surrounding red turf, and if we get through that without making a Trump seat, we end up with the tricky area of SoCal, if the choice is made to pull the 50th out of Riverside, yes it'd make the 50th bluer, but where would it go? It can't really go south since the southern seats are all squeezed between 50 and the Mexican border, so you turn north, where surprise, surprise, there turns out to be a sizably Republican (though less so now than in 2020) chunk of towns collectively known as south OC. Democrats got very lucky that this area got split in 2012, it seems unlikely they can have that happen again and get the favorable 50th configuration. So imo the 5th GOP seat comes from SoCal, though as I showed we could very well get 6 or 7 GOP seats, you absolutely need 4 though, the ugly gerrymanders required to eliminate LaMalfa or McCarthy are not happening, and as you see in Calamity and leecannon's maps, eliminating Calvert and McClintock is particularly ugly and very unlikely. best you can hope for is 4 Trump seats, though realistically it's more like 6-8 probably. It should be noted this is still very D favorable (as is CA geography), Trump won 34% of the vote in CA in 2020, I challenge someone to draw me a clean map where he wins 34% of the seats (18 seats). Geography hurts Democrats in many states (WI and MI come to mind), but it is their friend in CA.

Interesting.  So which Republicans do you think are most at risk of being screwed over?  The Orange County ones?

Garcia and Steel.

Not Young Kim?

[Non Swing Voter]

So what is the net effect of this?  Seems unclear but based on everyone's comments it sounds like the GOP might end up losing 1-2 net seats in a neutral election year.