If Hillary is the Democrats' nominee....

[bedstuy]

It's kind of silly to predict because we don't know the candidate she would face.  But, most of the rumored GOP candidates are walking jokes, a mix of cuckoo brains and cretins.   

Hard to imagine Hillary losing to:  Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Rick Santorum.

Bland, bring nothing to the table, race is Hillary's to lose:  Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, John Thune, Mitt Romney.

Hillary ought to win, but it might get interesting: Chris Christie.

Within there, I think the range of likelihood is like 12.5% for Christie - 1.5% for Rick Perry.  Maybe I'm overrating Hillary, but she's a known commodity.  She'll have a stronger organization than whatever Republican emerges and her ideological positions occupy the middle ground.  None of the Republicans really appeal to those persuadable voters, aside from Christie who has his own corruption problems. 

[bedstuy]

I'd give a slight edge to Republicans.

Parties always lose support after enough time in the White House. Hillary will not be able to distance herself from an increasingly unpopular President Obama. Her decades in public life mean she has a fairly high floor, but that she is also a poor agent for change. Demographic trends favor Democrats in the long term, but not quickly enough to have an impact here.

She's likely to be the Democrat's McCain, a respected figure who polled well initially, but got the nomination in the wrong cycle.

The big unknown is the significance of the first female President. We just don't know if there are enough Republicans or conservative-leaning independents who believe that milestone is worth a third term of Democrats in the White House.

Despite Obama's current unpopularity, I'm sure it's going to be more like 1988. Hillary will probably win, but she'll be defeated in 2020 by a moderate republican.

Depends on what you mean by 1988.

George HW Bush lost about ten percent of the vote Reagan got in 1984.

A ten percent loss from Obama's 2012 numbers will probably result in a Republican President.

This is such horrible logic.