Who will win in Illinois?

[ill ind]

  It all comes down to turnout.  In 2014 only 18% showed up for the primary vs 24% back in 2010.  Primary turnouts in other states have matched Illinois, being very poor--less than in 2010.  If this trend holds and general election turnout in 2014 is deflated from that in 2010 (50.53%), it will come down to who can get their constituency to the polls.

[ill ind]

  Muon also has a good point about the Cook County Races.  In 2010 there was a 'progressive' wave with Toni Preckwinkle running for her first term as County Board Chair and Forest Claypool running as an independent for County Assessor against machine slated Joe Berrios.  There were some pretty heavy races going, with commercials and a whole lo0t of mud going on.  This time around, the Democratic incumbents are all unopposed.  That has to really hurt Quinn.

  Not much to drive up turnout in the congressionals either.  10 and 11 are competitive, but they drew 60,000 and 2,000 votes respecively in 2012 in a county where 2 million voted, so they will have minimal impact.  1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 are all pretty boring Congressional races.


Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  Some mention has been made about third party candidates in the Illinois Election and the effect that had 4 years ago.  Even though the ballot will not be certified until Friday, based on the hearing officers' documents concerning the objections, it appears that the Libertarian Party ticket will be on the ballot, but that the Green and Constitution Parties' slates have failed to get on.
  Libertarians have gotten some fairly impressive results in polling this year so we will see.  There will be a protest option out there.
  I am amazed at the amount of time,effort and money the two major parties put into trying to keep any independents off the Illinois ballot this year.  I shouldn't be as there is a whole cottage law practice built around ballot challenges in this state

Ill_Ind