How many counties will JB Pritzker win outside of Chicagoland when he runs for reelection?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois has 102 counties in total.

Recent Democratic showings:

1998: 43 total (42 outside Chicagoland)
2002: 36 total (35 outside Chicagoland)
2006: 31 total (28 outside Chicagoland)
2010: 4 total (3 outside Chicagoland)
2014: 1 total (0 outside Chicagoland) - Democrat won only Cook
2018: 16 total (10 outside Chicagoland)

Given JB’s unpopularity compared to that of Quinn and Blago in the past, I think JB stands a great chance of being swept downstate like Quinn was in 2014. Especially add that to the fact that JB has almost gone out of his way to show his disdain for the rest of the state, especially pre-pandemic, and that his executive orders regarding the pandemic were not well received in the non-Chicago portion of the state (even though I personally approve of them).

The easiest two counties for him will be St. Clair County (East St. Louis) and Champaign County (Champaign). Of the counties he won last time, the toughest hold is probably Fulton, a blue-collar ancestrally Democratic county that broke big for Trump.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

Based on what I’ve seen in my area I assume the positive side of that approval rating is concentrated in Chicagoland. Given that a large majority of the state’s population lives in or near Chicago, I’m not insinuating that he’s unpopular statewide. I’m saying he is unpopular in every part of the state except for Chicago and the suburbs. I suppose I didn’t really spell that out in my original post.