The following list is those who (currently) qualify for the first GOP debate, being held on August 6th on FOX.
--------in------------
1 Jeb Bush 13.8
2 Rubio 12.2
3 Walker 11.2
4 Carson 9.0
5 Rand Paul 8.8
6 Huckabee 8.8
7 Cruz 7.8
8 Christie 5.0
9 Trump 4.0
10 Perry 2.4
--------out------------
11 Kasich 2.0
12 Santorum 2.0
13 Fiorina 1.4
14 Pataki 1.0
15 Jindal 0.8
16 Graham 0.8
unpolled (and therefore also out): Gilmore, King, Erlich, and anyone else
based on last 5 national polls:
CNN 5/29 - 5/31
ABC/Washington Post 5/28 - 5/31
Quinnipiac 5/19 - 5/26
FOX 5/9 - 5/12
NBC/WSJ 4/26 - 4/30
(Assumes all that are polled are official candidates)
FOX doesn't actually detail which polls they accept, just that they must be "nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques" so I am assuming same list as CNN (which is all the non-partisan live phone polls)
BTW, if one of the current top 10 weren't running then both Kasich and Santorum would be in as FOX will allow for ties for 10th place. CNN has a complex tie breaker thing that I didn't bother with.
Carly Fiornia and Trump should be switched - Fiorina is a far more serious candidate.
Agreed. I'd also rather see Kasich in there instead of Carson, since I don't think Carson will fare well in the debates. But Carson is well above the line and actually led a national GOP poll last week. I just have a hard time seeing someone with no political experience get nominated.
