Clinton vs. Bush map

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

No Republican will carry NM except in an enormous landslide.

Or unless its popular Republican governor is selected as a running-mate.  As a general rule, you're probably right, though.  But there are exceptions -and this could be one.  

Agreed.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

A last hurrah for the old order, especially if immigration reform legislation passes both houses, Obamacare continues to disappoint, and ordinary Americans continue to not feel the economic recovery:

Bush/Martinez: 274
Clinton/Brown: 264

And the popular vote margin would be about as tight.  
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In short, everything has to fall into place for this to happen -and Bush is the only likely Republican nominee (if he chooses to run) who can pull out a win given these circumstances.  

I could see the popular vote going to Hillary here.
Good map, BTW.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Actually, it is a feasible map for a candidate like Jeb Bush  and Marco Rubio under the right circumstances.
(only with Martinez as VP however)

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Hillary will win the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV [is it part of that region as well?]) without much of a problem. That right there should be enough to get her past 270.

You do know Colorado is not a Hillary state, right?
It will be a battle for her to win the state.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Hillary will win the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV [is it part of that region as well?]) without much of a problem. That right there should be enough to get her past 270.

You do know Colorado is not a Hillary state, right?
It will be a battle for her to win the state.

What exactly is a Hillary state? You think young voters and Hispanics will abandon the Dems over the next couple of years?

To be perfectly honest I don't put much if any stock into polls right now. Colorao has been trending Democratic for over a decade now so I think it'll take a pretty decent national lead for the GOP to carry CO (certainly larger than any of the majorities they've had since GHW Bush).

For your response on Hispanics, no one expects the GOP to win the Hispanic vote, but Republicans do have candidates that could get could a sizeable portion of  the Hispanic vote,like W Bush did, so candidates like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio(Rubio is also much younger than Hillary), and with a vice presidential candidate like Martinez, that helps alot. Also, as for young people, I could see Rubio gaining many against Hillary.
   Oh, and Rubio and Martinez being Hispanic don't have as much to it as their positions on immigration, and   Martinez's being moderate and Rubio now starting to talk about income inequality.
(for example, Ted Cruz would not do well with Hispanics )

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Bush ran as a compassionate conservative, promising immigration reform. Will the 2016 GOP candidate (won't be Rubio anyway) do the same? I somehow doubt it.

Rubio will  be supported by the establishment if Walker, Bush, and Thune don't run. So yes, Rubio actually has a solid chance. But onto Walker, he seems to be moderate on the immigration issue, but I don't think it would be enough.
And I doubt Hispanics would like Thune.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Anyway, I don't know about African Americans, I think they are way too solidly D.... And not just because of Obama.
That's why Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia  scare me more than Florida or Colorado.
But yeah, nice writeup about the NSA, the question is whether Republicans actually push the anti NSA message forward.
One thing about civil liberties is that even a majority of young Republicans support legalization of same sex marriage.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

A smart Republican Hispanic outreach would look like this:

-Education Reform
-Immigration Reform
-Talking to Catholics better
-Take a Rubio-style approach to the "opportunity" talking point
-Take a Ryan-style approach to poverty, like the WSJ op ed
-Actually spend some time talking to them.

We could hit 40% at some point in the not too distant future.

Totally agreed. Basically, do everything different than Romney.
Also, we did reach 40% of Hispanics with Bush in 2004.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

It's gonna take more than a couple of editorials to win over Hispanics. Numerous surveys have shown that they are staunch liberals when it comes to economics and the role of government and that many couldn't care less about social issues. Just arguing that poverty is bad and that we shouldn't close our eyes to it along with a couple of photos ops in a soup kitchen will simply not suffice.

Agreed, which is why we should carefully watch Rubio's next two years, and see what he does.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Oh, and to avoid derailing this thread anyway, let's talk about this here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=185761.0

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I still think he won't even run.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Only a Republican that caters to Hispanics could win New Mexico.