Clinton vs. Bush map

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Was about to post this, but checked the entire thread to make sure. Drats.

[eric82oslo]

Hillary will win the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV [is it part of that region as well?]) without much of a problem. That right there should be enough to get her past 270.

You do know Colorado is not a Hillary state, right?
It will be a battle for her to win the state.

That's right. According to my projections, Colorado is only the 35th strongest state for Hillary right now, just ahead of Texas at 36th. Hillary is down 4.75% in Colorado, compared to being down 5% in Texas. This might all be temporary though and a result of Democrats having had a generally bad and difficult year in the state, except for the legalization of pot that is.

See this post for a deeper analysis: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169131.msg4032630#msg4032630

Even behind Arizona, Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Georgia, Louisiana, Kentucky and North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She will pick possibly Hickenlooper or Warner to help her win, not Brown, an ultra liberal.

[Beezer]

Hillary will win the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV [is it part of that region as well?]) without much of a problem. That right there should be enough to get her past 270.

You do know Colorado is not a Hillary state, right?
It will be a battle for her to win the state.

What exactly is a Hillary state? You think young voters and Hispanics will abandon the Dems over the next couple of years?

To be perfectly honest I don't put much if any stock into polls or projections based on those right now (particularly ones that make Arkansas more Democratic than Colorado). Colorado has been trending Democratic for over a decade now so I think it'll take a pretty decent national lead for the GOP to carry CO (certainly larger than any of the majorities they've had since GHW Bush).

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Hillary will win the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV [is it part of that region as well?]) without much of a problem. That right there should be enough to get her past 270.

You do know Colorado is not a Hillary state, right?
It will be a battle for her to win the state.

What exactly is a Hillary state? You think young voters and Hispanics will abandon the Dems over the next couple of years?

To be perfectly honest I don't put much if any stock into polls right now. Colorao has been trending Democratic for over a decade now so I think it'll take a pretty decent national lead for the GOP to carry CO (certainly larger than any of the majorities they've had since GHW Bush).

For your response on Hispanics, no one expects the GOP to win the Hispanic vote, but Republicans do have candidates that could get could a sizeable portion of  the Hispanic vote,like W Bush did, so candidates like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio(Rubio is also much younger than Hillary), and with a vice presidential candidate like Martinez, that helps alot. Also, as for young people, I could see Rubio gaining many against Hillary.
   Oh, and Rubio and Martinez being Hispanic don't have as much to it as their positions on immigration, and   Martinez's being moderate and Rubio now starting to talk about income inequality.
(for example, Ted Cruz would not do well with Hispanics )

[Beezer]

Bush ran as a compassionate conservative, promising immigration reform. Will the 2016 GOP candidate (won't be Rubio anyway) do the same? I somehow doubt it.

[Potus]

Hillary will win the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV [is it part of that region as well?]) without much of a problem. That right there should be enough to get her past 270.

You do know Colorado is not a Hillary state, right?
It will be a battle for her to win the state.

What exactly is a Hillary state? You think young voters and Hispanics will abandon the Dems over the next couple of years?

To be perfectly honest I don't put much if any stock into polls or projections based on those right now (particularly ones that make Arkansas more Democratic than Colorado). Colorado has been trending Democratic for over a decade now so I think it'll take a pretty decent national lead for the GOP to carry CO (certainly larger than any of the majorities they've had since GHW Bush).

On young voters, the GOP is moving towards the civil liberties, privacy bunch. You just saw the passage of a resolution at the party meeting condemning the NSA. That's actually a big deal to young voters. People in my school who are entirely apolitical are keenly aware of the "NSA" and they're strongly opposed to it. Hillary has a very hawkish mentality and won't bend on that, more than likely. Even if the GOP nominee supports Obama-style reforms to the program, there will still be issues with young voters for Hillary.

Young voters don't feel that obligation to vote 60+ year olds do. If they don't like either one, they just don't show up. Obamacare is also causing some pretty severe issues among young people for the Dems. An optimistic, visionary leader for the GOP ticket with some ability to articulate it would not have an issue increasing the GOP's numbers among young voters.

Cuccinelli, hardly a strong electable leader, won the the youth vote in VAGov. If the GOP are the fresh faces and the Dems are same old same old(especially with Hillary at the helm), you'll see numbers swing toward the GOP and turnout to fall.

With Bush specifically, I actually see our margins increasing with Hispanics and African Americans in 2016. His incredible talent with education reform and support for smart immigration policy makes him very acceptable to Hispanics and more acceptable to African Americans.

I also think you'll see lower minority turnout in 2016 if Hillary is the nominee. The Clinton Campaign will lose a single primary and everyone will panic, she'll lean on Bill like she did in 08 and he'll push the campaign toward "Bubba" voters. I also don't think she'll have the powers to charm those voting blocs like the President did in 08 and 2012.

The South is staying red. Period.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Bush ran as a compassionate conservative, promising immigration reform. Will the 2016 GOP candidate (won't be Rubio anyway) do the same? I somehow doubt it.

Rubio will  be supported by the establishment if Walker, Bush, and Thune don't run. So yes, Rubio actually has a solid chance. But onto Walker, he seems to be moderate on the immigration issue, but I don't think it would be enough.
And I doubt Hispanics would like Thune.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Anyway, I don't know about African Americans, I think they are way too solidly D.... And not just because of Obama.
That's why Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia  scare me more than Florida or Colorado.
But yeah, nice writeup about the NSA, the question is whether Republicans actually push the anti NSA message forward.
One thing about civil liberties is that even a majority of young Republicans support legalization of same sex marriage.

[Potus]

A smart Republican Hispanic outreach would look like this:

-Education Reform
-Immigration Reform
-Talking to Catholics better
-Take a Rubio-style approach to the "opportunity" talking point
-Take a Ryan-style approach to poverty, like the WSJ op ed
-Actually spend some time talking to them.

We could hit 40% at some point in the not too distant future.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

A smart Republican Hispanic outreach would look like this:

-Education Reform
-Immigration Reform
-Talking to Catholics better
-Take a Rubio-style approach to the "opportunity" talking point
-Take a Ryan-style approach to poverty, like the WSJ op ed
-Actually spend some time talking to them.

We could hit 40% at some point in the not too distant future.

Totally agreed. Basically, do everything different than Romney.
Also, we did reach 40% of Hispanics with Bush in 2004.

[Beezer]

It's gonna take more than a couple of editorials to win over Hispanics. Numerous surveys have shown that they are staunch liberals when it comes to economics and the role of government and that many couldn't care less about social issues. Just arguing that poverty is bad and that we shouldn't close our eyes to it along with a couple of photos ops in a soup kitchen will simply not suffice.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Hillary will win the Mountain West (CO, NM, NV [is it part of that region as well?]) without much of a problem. That right there should be enough to get her past 270.

You do know Colorado is not a Hillary state, right?
It will be a battle for her to win the state.

What exactly is a Hillary state? You think young voters and Hispanics will abandon the Dems over the next couple of years?

To be perfectly honest I don't put much if any stock into polls or projections based on those right now (particularly ones that make Arkansas more Democratic than Colorado). Colorado has been trending Democratic for over a decade now so I think it'll take a pretty decent national lead for the GOP to carry CO (certainly larger than any of the majorities they've had since GHW Bush).

On young voters, the GOP is moving towards the civil liberties, privacy bunch. You just saw the passage of a resolution at the party meeting condemning the NSA. That's actually a big deal to young voters. People in my school who are entirely apolitical are keenly aware of the "NSA" and they're strongly opposed to it. Hillary has a very hawkish mentality and won't bend on that, more than likely. Even if the GOP nominee supports Obama-style reforms to the program, there will still be issues with young voters for Hillary.

Young voters don't feel that obligation to vote 60+ year olds do. If they don't like either one, they just don't show up. Obamacare is also causing some pretty severe issues among young people for the Dems. An optimistic, visionary leader for the GOP ticket with some ability to articulate it would not have an issue increasing the GOP's numbers among young voters.

Cuccinelli, hardly a strong electable leader, won the the youth vote in VAGov. If the GOP are the fresh faces and the Dems are same old same old(especially with Hillary at the helm), you'll see numbers swing toward the GOP and turnout to fall.

With Bush specifically, I actually see our margins increasing with Hispanics and African Americans in 2016. His incredible talent with education reform and support for smart immigration policy makes him very acceptable to Hispanics and more acceptable to African Americans.

I also think you'll see lower minority turnout in 2016 if Hillary is the nominee. The Clinton Campaign will lose a single primary and everyone will panic, she'll lean on Bill like she did in 08 and he'll push the campaign toward "Bubba" voters. I also don't think she'll have the powers to charm those voting blocs like the President did in 08 and 2012.

The South is staying red. Period.

This says otherwise: http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html Sure T-Mac also got a somewhat weaksauce 45%, but that's a hell of a lot better than the Cooch's 40%. Though you may be onto something with your civil liberties argument seeing as Sarvis got 15%, by far the highest of any age group.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

It's gonna take more than a couple of editorials to win over Hispanics. Numerous surveys have shown that they are staunch liberals when it comes to economics and the role of government and that many couldn't care less about social issues. Just arguing that poverty is bad and that we shouldn't close our eyes to it along with a couple of photos ops in a soup kitchen will simply not suffice.

Agreed, which is why we should carefully watch Rubio's next two years, and see what he does.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Oh, and to avoid derailing this thread anyway, let's talk about this here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=185761.0

[Beezer]

Moved to other thread.

[IceSpear]

I think people here are overestimating Jeb considerably. Even my 319-219 map I thought was a bit too generous for him.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html

Yes, polls this early are rarely ever significant. But it's pretty clear that he's not on the same level as Christie was pre-Bridgeghazi. Here's what some GOP establishment people think if Christie is not the nominee:

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That's not even to mention the huge drag Dubya will be on Jeb, whereas Bill will be a huge asset for Hillary.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I still think he won't even run.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's time for a new family to run America into the ground.

[Mr. Illini]

Didn't want to leave any toss-ups, but I couldn't decide on Ohio. Either way, Hillary takes it.

[Indy Texas]

No Republican will carry NM except in an enormous landslide.

Agreed. lol at the people who think being married to a Mexican woman and being from Texas and Florida automatically makes you outperform severely among Hispanic voters.

[Nichlemn]

No Republican will carry NM except in an enormous landslide.

Agreed. lol at the people who think being married to a Mexican woman and being from Texas and Florida automatically makes you outperform severely among Hispanic voters.

His brother did with a fairly close national victory, and it's not as if NM has had massive Hispanic growth since then. It might take a slightly larger national victory than Bush 04, but "an enormous landslide" is not a prerequisite.

[pbrower2a]

A smart Republican Hispanic outreach would look like this:

-Education Reform
-Immigration Reform
-Talking to Catholics better
-Take a Rubio-style approach to the "opportunity" talking point
-Take a Ryan-style approach to poverty, like the WSJ op ed
-Actually spend some time talking to them.

We could hit 40% at some point in the not too distant future.

Totally agreed. Basically, do everything different than Romney.
Also, we did reach 40% of Hispanics with Bush in 2004.

Until the housing market imploded, burning Hispanics (the bulk of the new entrants to the dream of home ownership) who buy into real estate at lower levels of income than any other group. Hispanics bought last, bought high, and paid the highest interest rates -- and lost the most.  They turned on the GOP everywhere but Texas (only because Texas has some of the tightest regulation on lenders and real estate in America after an analogous crash in the 1980s). Dubya made real estate a bigger, more open, and more dangerous gamble than anything offered in a casino.

Face it -- a well-run casino encourages people to lose their money slowly while feeling close to being Big Winners so that they can return at the first opportunity. It will be some time before Americans buy into real estate as the solution to all questions of economics.

2004 was before the Great Swindle imploded.

   

[⛄]

Clinton: 374
Bush: 92
tossup: 72

FL, GA and NC are true toss-ups.
MT, ND, SD, and AK will go Dem. if Schweitzer is the VP nominee.

[Indy Texas]

No Republican will carry NM except in an enormous landslide.

Agreed. lol at the people who think being married to a Mexican woman and being from Texas and Florida automatically makes you outperform severely among Hispanic voters.

His brother did with a fairly close national victory, and it's not as if NM has had massive Hispanic growth since then. It might take a slightly larger national victory than Bush 04, but "an enormous landslide" is not a prerequisite.

2004 was a different year, different candidate, different platform and a different Republican Party.

By that logic, Hillary should be able to win Louisiana because her husband did so without much difficulty.