I think those polls (at least the Texas poll) were reflective of what everyone was seeing at that time, Republicans included. The consensus was a double-digit seat gain for Democrats nationwide, not a double-digit seat loss. The presidential polling in Texas was also showing a dead heat too. Also keep in mind how close the dam was to bursting in Texas in 2018 (six Republican-won seats were won by less than 5%).
As for this poll, it's no cause for alarm. It's a Republican internal from three weeks ago and the laws of political gravity sometimes take a bit to assert themselves. If the polling looks like anything close to this in September, then I'll light my hair on fire.
