Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[politicallefty]

Unfortunately, I think it will fail.

Constitutional Amendments SHOULD have to reach a higher threshold than just 50%.  Frankly, I think more bad ideas get voted in through such referenda than through the acts of the worst legislatures.

It's worse than just implementing a 60% threshold (as much as I may disagree with that in and of itself). It also requires a set number of signatures from every single county in the state, compared with half under the current setup. I think the part that makes it particularly insidious though is that it also removes the cure period. Under the current system, organizers have 10 days to get the necessary signatures if they fell short after submitting them to the state. In other words, if organizers gathered a million signatures from across the state and missed the requisite target in one county by just a single signature, they would have to start over from scratch (and almost certainly not in the same year).

I'm not sure how this will end up. However, it seems like abortion rights groups are rightly treating this as a life or death issue. With a likely abortion rights initiative on the ballot this November, a 60% threshold would make it far more difficult to pass. (The signature collection provisions wouldn't go into effect until next year.) From what I've read, this initiative is also about preventing a new redistricting amendment from passing.

[politicallefty]

It would be quite ironic if the abortion amendment broke 60% Yes in November. Michigan's amendment didn't even hit that threshold, but the silent majority may have been awoken.

[politicallefty]

All polls will close tomorrow at 7:30 Eastern. We should expect the first results shortly thereafter, though they will likely be heavy in early vote.

[politicallefty]

Looks like the final margin will be 57-43. FWIW, the following counties voted No by a wider margin than the state did:
-Athens
-Cuyahoga
-Delaware (barely)
-Franklin
-Hamilton
-Lake
-Lorain
-Lucas
-Mahoning (barely)
-Montgomery
-Portage (barely)
-Summit

Erie and Trumbull pretty much exactly tracked the statewide margin, while Wood voted No by a slightly smaller margin than the state. I know it's far from a perfect comparison, but I feel like this is a potential indicator of what counties Sherrod would need to win.

Also I'm surprised Warren voted No by more than Butler did. Butler is slightly less white, but Warren is way richer and more college-educated.

If you compare the counties relative to the state as a whole, the map is nearly identical to the 2020 presidential map. Four counties flipped sides in relation to the state as a whole. Only one county flipped from left of the state as a whole to the right (though by a very small margin): Wood. The three that flipped in the other direction, interestingly, are all part of OH-14. Trumbull and Portage flipped from right of the state as a whole to just to the left by small margins. I think the most noteworthy shift is Lake, which went from Trump+14 to No+18 (one of only six counties in that state that swung over 30% on the overall margin compared to the state's 22% shift). Lake County didn't even vote to the left of the state when Obama was on the ballot. (The rightward shift of a suburban county like Lake is part of what has kept Ohio out of reach for Democrats in recent years) That seems significant to me, though I can't say what it means apart from the suburbs clearly being in revolt on issues such as these. At the very least, it does show a path for Sherrod Brown.

[politicallefty]

I did a little digging and pulled up the marriage amendment from 2004. Only one county voted against (Athens), but I was interested to see the counties that voted to the left of the statewide vote, in order (only including counties that voted >40% No):

-Athens
-Franklin
-Cuyahoga
-Hamilton
-Portage
-Lucas
-Lake
-Summit
-Montgomery
-Lorain
-Wood
-Geauga

(Ashtabula and Medina voted to the left of the state, but voted over 60% Yes.)

Apart from Delaware County, maybe a lot less has changed than we might think. At the least, it's clear that the counties above are the more socially liberal counties of Ohio.

[politicallefty]

I did a little digging and pulled up the marriage amendment from 2004. Only one county voted against (Athens), but I was interested to see the counties that voted to the left of the statewide vote, in order (only including counties that voted >40% No):

-Athens
-Franklin
-Cuyahoga
-Hamilton
-Portage
-Lucas
-Lake
-Summit
-Montgomery
-Lorain
-Wood
-Geauga

(Ashtabula and Medina voted to the left of the state, but voted over 60% Yes.)

Apart from Delaware County, maybe a lot less has changed than we might think. At the least, it's clear that the counties above are the more socially liberal counties of Ohio.

Forgot Mahoning, too

On the marriage amendment, Mahoning (62.9% Yes) was to the right of the state (61.7% Yes). Trumbull was closer, just very slightly to the right of the state then. Both do seem to track close to the statewide margin on social issues though.

[politicallefty]

... is Ohio going to count any more ballots? It's been over a week and I thought there was something like tens of thousands of possible late mail ballots to count?

According to the SoS (click the Ballots Cast tab), there are about 20k outstanding absentee/mail ballots and 38k provisionals. Apparently, the state accepts mail ballots up to four days after Election Day so long as they were postmarked no later than the day before the election.

[politicallefty]

I was surprised Jefferson, Belmont, and Monroe Counties voted "YES". These have historically been the most Democratic counties in Appalachian Ohio, and with such a large margin of victory for the pro-choice side and such a huge swing towards the pro-choice side in Appalachian Ohio, I would have expected these counties to vote "NO". These counties voted for Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, Brown in 2006, Obama in 2008, and Brown in 2012.

If you look at the swings starting in 2000, those counties pretty much followed the same trajectory as West Virginia and some of the bordering counties in Western PA (particularly SWPA). Brown won a larger victory in 2018 than in 2012 and they all swung against him. They've been moving rightward with no signs of letting up on the trend.

Remember though that this wasn't a straight-up abortion vote like the one in November will be.