MI looks overwhelmingly likely to be a fresh Republican set of maps and it's really difficult to imagine a new PA map that's not more favorable to Republicans. CA should be mostly status quo, and the seat getting cut is almost certainly Lowenthal's. (Garcia could be screwed by redistricting, but then again so could Levin). NY and IL will see harder gerrymanders but that adds up to way fewer seats than FL/GA/TX/NC and the like: the new maps are more Republican-favorable than the 2020 cycle's were.
Where are you getting that from? Michigan will have some competitive seats, but the new map is going to effectively merge MI-02 and MI-04 into one seat. That's a net loss for Republicans on the notional. Pennsylvania is problematic for Democrats, but mostly in the margins. No one has any idea what California will look like. Texas Republicans appear to mostly be going for an incumbent protection plan. NC Republicans will overreach and get struck down. We have to wait to see Georgia and Florida for Republicans and also Illinois and NY for Democrats. A lot will depend on what Florida Republicans can get away with. On the other hand, Ohio Republicans may not be able to get away with much. It's a serious wrinkle for Republicans if the OH Supreme Court forces a fair map that results in upwards of 6-7 Democratic seats.
