KY-03: Yarmuth retiring

[WV222]

https://twitter.com/repjohnyarmuth/status/1447973858527563778?s=21

Yarmuth retiring. He is the lone Democrat in the Kentucky delegation.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if this makes the GOP more likely to crack Louisville.

[Matty]

Safe D

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Yeah this probably means Louisville's getting cracked. I wish Charles Booker was running for this seat instead. KY-Sen is Safe R.

[I’m not Stu]

Is it legal under state law to crack Louisville?

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Yeah this probably means Louisville's getting cracked. I wish Charles Booker was running for this seat instead. KY-Sen is Safe R.

I hope he doesn’t get any ideas to switch. We don’t need another socialist squad member.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1447978372836077575

[TML]

Is it legal under state law to crack Louisville?

It might not be. There's a reason why even the most prominent Republican statewide officeholder in KY is not in favor of such a move.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/MorganMcGarvey/status/1447976201277083649

State senate Democratic leader.

[SnowLabrador]

R+1. Louisville is 100% getting cracked.

[Del Tachi]

Louisville will not get cracked and Democrats will hold this seat.

[Mr.Phips]

Perhaps Yarmuth knows his district is getting cracked.

[Mr.Phips]

Louisville will not get cracked and Democrats will hold this seat.

It is either safe Dem (not cracked) or safe R (cracked).  No in between here.

[lfromnj]

Louisville will not get cracked and Democrats will hold this seat.

It is either safe Dem (not cracked) or safe R (cracked).  No in between here.

Swing cracked is a small option. I would say 80% not cracked. 10% cracked ,10% safe R.  Think its very unlikely based on the minority leader jumping in that fast.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, no way the minority leader jumps into the race if the seat were to be ripped to shreds.

[politicallefty]

I'm more concerned about what this says in terms of his confidence for Democrats to hold the House. He's the Chairman of the Budget Committee.

[GALeftist]

I think this makes the seat being cracked marginally more likely, but then again, Yarmuth seems to have informed McGarvey about this ahead of time, so I think the more likely explanation is that he just wants to retire and/or thinks a R House is likely in 2022. Agree with the CW that Louisville is unlikely to be cracked.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm more concerned about what this says in terms of his confidence for Democrats to hold the House. He's the Chairman of the Budget Committee.

It can’t mathematically be done.

[Vosem]

Kentucky law says you have to draw a seat within Jefferson County. I'm not sure what the most-Republican version of that seat looks like, or whether it's even possible to draw a Trump-voting CD in JeffCo (I imagine not, though by sinking the black parts with rural areas you can probably get a much redder seat than the one that currently exists).

The seat can't be cracked unless they change state law, which Beshear won't let them do. (Had Bevin won, it probably would have been cracked). But they can certainly unpack it to some extent.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm more concerned about what this says in terms of his confidence for Democrats to hold the House. He's the Chairman of the Budget Committee.

It can’t mathematically be done.

I mean, this is just blatantly inaccurate, especially if Democrats draw the lines far more aggressively than Republicans (especially in CA, IL, NY, MI, PA).

It’s not likely that Democrats hold the House but it’s certainly not 'mathematically impossible' and arguably not even considerably less likely than Democrats holding the Senate.

[Lognog]

He's 73 and probably knows he won't be around long enough to see dems fully in power. Just because a representative retires at an appropriate age doesn't mean his seat is gone for ever. There are steep legal challenges in the constitution for Republicans to crack this. Considering the senate minority leader is running for the seat, I would think its safe. I trust him over red atlas doomers

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I'm more concerned about what this says in terms of his confidence for Democrats to hold the House. He's the Chairman of the Budget Committee.

It can’t mathematically be done.

I mean, this is just blatantly inaccurate, especially if Democrats draw the lines far more aggressively than Republicans (especially in CA, IL, NY, MI, PA).

It’s not likely that Democrats hold the House but it’s certainly not 'mathematically impossible' and arguably not even considerably less likely than Democrats holding the Senate.

Based on what our redistricting commission has been churning out recently, Democrats would be pretty lucky to have a 7D-6R majority in a neutral midterm, let alone in a midterm that will presumably be favorable for the GOP.

[Vosem]

I'm more concerned about what this says in terms of his confidence for Democrats to hold the House. He's the Chairman of the Budget Committee.

It can’t mathematically be done.

I mean, this is just blatantly inaccurate, especially if Democrats draw the lines far more aggressively than Republicans (especially in CA, IL, NY, MI, PA).

It’s not likely that Democrats hold the House but it’s certainly not 'mathematically impossible' and arguably not even considerably less likely than Democrats holding the Senate.

MI looks overwhelmingly likely to be a fresh Republican set of maps and it's really difficult to imagine  a new PA map that's not more favorable to Republicans. CA should be mostly status quo, and the seat getting cut is almost certainly Lowenthal's. (Garcia could be screwed by redistricting, but then again so could Levin). NY and IL will see harder gerrymanders but that adds up to way fewer seats than FL/GA/TX/NC and the like: the new maps are more Republican-favorable than the 2020 cycle's were.

"Mathematically impossible" is a strong phrase, but the House is probably already notionally Republican on the 2022 maps, so the scenario where Democrats keep the House is probably one where there's a swing to them and they perform better than they did in 2020. That's not very likely.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder if this makes the GOP more likely to crack Louisville.

They can't, the Kentucky constitution has rules on whole counties that require that the vast majority of Louisville stay together. They could try extracting some Democratic areas from the district (changing which parts of Jefferson County are in a different district), but it would still be a pretty solidly Biden seat so there's not much point.

[lfromnj]

I wonder if this makes the GOP more likely to crack Louisville.

They can't, the Kentucky constitution has rules on whole counties that require that the vast majority of Louisville to stay together. They could try extracting some Democratic areas from the district but it would still be a pretty solidly Biden seat so there's not much point.

Thats state legislative . Congressional is merely statuory iirc.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kentucky law says you have to draw a seat within Jefferson County. I'm not sure what the most-Republican version of that seat looks like, or whether it's even possible to draw a Trump-voting CD in JeffCo (I imagine not, though by sinking the black parts with rural areas you can probably get a much redder seat than the one that currently exists).

The seat can't be cracked unless they change state law, which Beshear won't let them do. (Had Bevin won, it probably would have been cracked). But they can certainly unpack it to some extent.

Can Beshear actually block it with only a majority needed for a veto override? It's probably not happening though since the support isn't there amongst legislative leaders regardless. I think the key issue is no Republican incumbents want a significant portion of Louisville in their district.