NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI (user search)
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  NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI (search mode)
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Author Topic: NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI  (Read 4541 times)
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« on: September 12, 2020, 08:30:02 AM »
I was about to ask what exactly they mean by Milwaukee Suburbs. That seems very weak for a Republican and some serious erosion in support in the WOW counties, although I don't necessarily think the erosion is even (it seems like Washington County is the most stubbornly Republican of the three). It would certainly mean Waukesha is swinging against Trump, and I'm assuming Biden over 40%? If anything, it likes Biden is underpeforming in Dane County.


The NV numbers don't really concern me. The state is notoriously hard to poll and Democrats seem to always overperform their polling. I'm still waiting to hear from Jon Ralston, although I imagine he won't have much to say until early voting really ramps up.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2020, 09:10:27 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 12, 2020, 08:43:15 AM
Thats a 4 point swing in Dane County for a Biden from 2016.

Good point. I guess I was getting used to the monstrous margins in Dane from the state Supreme Court races. That's probably not realistic, but I don't trust the rural areas or even the Milwaukee suburbs. I think Biden probably does need to win the county by at least 50 points to win the state, but I'd really prefer to see him get closer to Tammy Baldwin's 2018 margin there.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2020, 01:59:16 PM »
Quote from: The Hunt for the Red October Surprise on September 12, 2020, 01:35:37 PM
Quote from: politicallefty on September 12, 2020, 08:30:02 AM
The NV numbers don't really concern me. The state is notoriously hard to poll and Democrats seem to always overperform their polling. I'm still waiting to hear from Jon Ralston, although I imagine he won't have much to say until early voting really ramps up.

Keep Calm and Trust Ralston

The non-white numbers look low for Biden in NV

As I said, too early, but:



He has spoken.
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,314
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2020, 01:42:30 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 13, 2020, 12:54:16 AM
Lots of folks are worried about that the Reid machine won't be able to work this year. Luckily the state implemented VMB and are allowing for ballot collection (aka the Culinary Union can go door to door and pick up ballots from their members). Not worried in the slightest.

YOU MEAN BALLOT HARVESTING!!!!!!!!! OMFG!!!! ISN'T THAT LIKE ORGAN HARVESTING?!!!?!?!??!?
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