Ohio redistricting thread

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/OPoliticsguru/status/1506058528762515458?s=20&t=viiILbuP...

Back on the expected congressional schedule, procedural hiccups appear to have been taken into account by the court's majority.

Looks like the tweet was deleted. What's going on here?

Just the court order demanding a responce from the defendants today after the suit was filed yesterday.

Do you have another source for it? The fact it was deleted makes me wonder if it was fake.

If that was legit, then the delay must be about to expire.

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1506024935193550860

[politicallefty]

Its even possible to have proportionality. The court then decided to make up an absurd standard of not including competitive seats with said proportionality which goes against mathematical principles..

To be fair, the proposed maps from the Republican majority were not reasonable. The Republicans basically wanted to count all of the bare Democratic seats as part of the Democratic share while most Republican seats were firmly on their side. The Court may have gone too far in their metric, but Republicans have not been acting in good faith at all. Hopefully, they are now, now that the Court continues to scold them and potentially find them in contempt.

[politicallefty]

According to this, the statewide primary is a go for May 3rd except that they're going to remove state House and state Senate races from the ballot. I imagine the US House primaries are going to be removed as well unless there's federal invention. I'm surprised they've waited this long considering military and overseas ballots need even more time. Early and absentee voting in Ohio literally beings on April 5th, which is a week from today. It seems like they're going to do what they can do for now and do the rest later. Ultimately, they can just not count any invalid races on the ballot if they can't be removed in time.

[politicallefty]

According to this, the statewide primary is a go for May 3rd except that they're going to remove state House and state Senate races from the ballot. I imagine the US House primaries are going to be removed as well unless there's federal invention. I'm surprised they've waited this long considering military and overseas ballots need even more time. Early and absentee voting in Ohio literally beings on April 5th, which is a week from today. It seems like they're going to do what they can do for now and do the rest later. Ultimately, they can just not count any invalid races on the ballot if they can't be removed in time.

The Schedule doesn't take place until after the primary election. So the Ohio Supreme court would have to invalidate a primary election or issue a preliminary injunction.

I was referring to what the OH Secretary of State has already ordered. He ordered the state House and state Senate races off the May 3rd primary election. The state will have some form of staggered primary when maps eventually get resolved. There's still theoretically time to remove the Congressional races from the ballot as well.

[politicallefty]

Wow, I'm absolutely stunned that two Trump-appointed judges voted to accept a Republican map in defiance of the Ohio Constitution. Amul Thapar is practically an Alito clone in his decisions.

[politicallefty]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

As a Democrat, I would take a cleaned up version of the current map. Some parts seems to be unnecessarily ugly. If they reoriented the 9/5 border (drop Wood and the counties west of Lucas for a split in Lorain), made OH-01 entirely within Hamilton County, and cleaned up the hideous OH-15, I'd take it. I actually think the current OH-13 is one of the better parts of the map.

I do wonder if Democrats got some new redistricting deal out of their deal with the new Speaker.

[politicallefty]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

Heh that's kinda neat. How do I use this to gerrymander (for fun of course) other states?

Here you go. I'm pretty sure you have to make an account now, but it isn't too hard to figure out. I would recommend just playing around if you're not too technologically-adept.

[politicallefty]

And yet they will have to keep spending money to fight commissions in that case, which they stated they are tired of having to do.

From what I've read, Ohio has a pretty robust initiative procedure that makes it quite easy to propose constitutional amendments to the voters and some Republicans want to try to increase the threshold to a 60% supermajority (an attempt to forestall an abortion rights amendment). In any event, it seems likely that something more significant will pass if Republicans keep insisting on their hideous gerrymanders in defiance of the Ohio Constitution.

[politicallefty]

This was my second proposal for a fair and reasonable map. I don't specifically recall the reason for the appendage on OH-12, but it's not for political reasons. My first proposal had a more Democratic-leaning district in OH-13 based in Summit County. (It's a few posts above the quote/link below.)

[politicallefty]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

[politicallefty]

What's the general expectation on the August ballot initiative? There doesn't seem to be any polling, though I don't imagine there to be much trust in polling for an election in the middle of summer. If it passes, it would obviously seriously complicate efforts for true redistricting reform. The 60% requirement is certainly the main part of it (particularly pertinent to the likely abortion rights initiative in November), but it would also require signatures from every single county in the state and eliminate the cure period.

Very unclear.  OTOH there is a strong, organized, unexpectedly visible campaign against it and no real campaign for it.  Then again, people tend to default to voting yes on complex ballot issues they don’t really understand, so who knows?

As I said earlier,  states more conservative than Ohio handily rejected measures like this in 2022. The electorate does not like losing its power. The state legislators know this of course,  which is why it's a Hail Mary play, and why they fought hard to separate it from the November ballot to reduce turnout.  That all said, I would expect a blowout in favor of No before I expect a Yes win.

I'm aware of the states that have voted for and against. What the hell happened in Florida in 2006? I know it's Florida, but still.

[politicallefty]

Signature gathering has began to put a (actually) independent redistricting commission on the 2024 ballot.

It seems to be a variation of what we've seen in other states (such as California and Michigan), but with some minor differences. This is the text that was submitted (PDF). Interestingly, it includes a ranked choice vote for choosing a plan if the commission reaches an impasse. In other words, they must produce a map. It also requires an immediate redistricting of the state upon passage.

I'll withhold optimism though, because Ohio Republicans have successfully beat these back multiple times. If Bloomberg wants to put some money to good use, this would certainly be a good way to do so.

[politicallefty]

Signature gathering has began to put a (actually) independent redistricting commission on the 2024 ballot.

It seems to be a variation of what we've seen in other states (such as California and Michigan), but with some minor differences. This is the text that was submitted (PDF). Interestingly, it includes a ranked choice vote for choosing a plan if the commission reaches an impasse. In other words, they must produce a map. It also requires an immediate redistricting of the state upon passage.

I'll withhold optimism though, because Ohio Republicans have successfully beat these back multiple times. If Bloomberg wants to put some money to good use, this would certainly be a good way to do so.

Are there any tactics Republicans could realistically use to stop it from getting on the ballot? Or are you just saying that with the right campaign and messaging from Republicans, the ballot initiative could fail?

I think the most recent was a deal with the organizers of the petition. That's what led to the spectacular failure of the provisions that were in place for this recent round of redistricting. Otherwise, what I meant was that they've actually managed to beat it at the ballot. The 2005 measure did seem somewhat convoluted (and placed competitiveness as the primary and paramount factor for adopting a plan), but the 2012 measure also went down in flames.

[politicallefty]

Shouldn't the Congressional lines be in effect for four years? Or is that part of the Ohio Constitution going to be conveniently ignored by the party that professes to abide by strict constructionism?

[politicallefty]

Don't they have to revisit this in two years regardless? What's the point here?

There's a proposal for a new redistricting amendment next year. Unfortunately, the map that's in place is the best possible map for 2024 consider the new hack majority on the Ohio Supreme Court.

[politicallefty]

Delaware County with Holmes County certainly makes a lot of sense. 

[politicallefty]

How do these maps compare with the maps in place right now? I have to say that it's startling to me how Republicans have a nearly 80/20 majority in the state Senate. Not even some of the reddest of the red are that imbalanced. There is no reason why the Ohio Senate should look like the Utah Senate or Idaho Senate.

[politicallefty]

After some final hiccups, the proposed amendment has finally been cleared for signature gathering:

The Ohio Ballot Board, led by Secretary of State Frank LaRose, voted Monday to advance the proposal for the second time after organizers restarted the process because of a typographical error in the summary of the petition. In both cases, the board could have split the proposal into multiple issues, requiring the campaign to collect hundreds of thousands of signatures for each one.

But, as it did in October, the board took a unanimous and bipartisan vote at the Ohio Statehouse to let the proposal advance as a single issue. Don McTigue, an attorney representing the backers of the proposal, told the ballot board that only the typo in the summary was fixed and that the amendment itself was unchanged.

Citizens Not Politicians, the group backing the amendment, now can begin the process of collecting more than 400,000 signatures from 44 of 88 Ohio counties before a July deadline to qualify for the November 2024 ballot.

As mentioned before, it would create a 15-member commission (5D-5R-5I). Any act of the commission would require 9 votes (and at least two each of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents). The amendment also requires the commission to redraw the lines in 2025. From what it looks like, it does appear to place proportionality as the highest consideration after meeting all federal requirements (Constitution and federal law).

[politicallefty]

After some final hiccups, the proposed amendment has finally been cleared for signature gathering:

The Ohio Ballot Board, led by Secretary of State Frank LaRose, voted Monday to advance the proposal for the second time after organizers restarted the process because of a typographical error in the summary of the petition. In both cases, the board could have split the proposal into multiple issues, requiring the campaign to collect hundreds of thousands of signatures for each one.

But, as it did in October, the board took a unanimous and bipartisan vote at the Ohio Statehouse to let the proposal advance as a single issue. Don McTigue, an attorney representing the backers of the proposal, told the ballot board that only the typo in the summary was fixed and that the amendment itself was unchanged.

Citizens Not Politicians, the group backing the amendment, now can begin the process of collecting more than 400,000 signatures from 44 of 88 Ohio counties before a July deadline to qualify for the November 2024 ballot.

As mentioned before, it would create a 15-member commission (5D-5R-5I). Any act of the commission would require 9 votes (and at least two each of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents). The amendment also requires the commission to redraw the lines in 2025. From what it looks like, it does appear to place proportionality as the highest consideration after meeting all federal requirements (Constitution and federal law).

How are the independents selected?

All 15 positions appointed by a commission of 4 retired judges (2 of each party), themselves appointed by the 4 members of the Ballot Board appointed by the State Legislature.

When it comes to choosing the retired judges, each side on the Ballot Board picks 8 from which the other side will pick 2. In other words, Democrats will put forward a list of 8 retired judges and Republicans will put forward a list of 8 retired judges. Republicans will pick 2 from the Democratic list and Democrats will pick 2 from the Republican list. That's basically the first stage of the process.

I don't think this was the final text submitted, but I think it's close enough (link-PDF).

[politicallefty]

Indeed, back in 2018, when 538 released its "Atlas of Redistricting," it found that in OH, the most pro-D gerrymander they could come up with at the time was 8D-8R (with three swing seats - two of them R-leaning and one of them D-leaning). This goes to show that political geography mostly favors Republicans in OH, but I still think that a map drawn by a truly independent commission and/or a court-appointed special master would most likely be 8R-7D.

That's definitely more of a recent development (specifically, Trump). Ohio was one of a few states I liked to play around with on DRA in the pre-Trump days. You could get 7-8 Obama districts (out of 16) in the northern part of the state from Toledo to Youngstown. The erosion of support in the NE part of the state has been crippling to Democratic chances in the state. Only two things have really changed to benefit Democrats (though they don't come close to balancing out the other trends): it's easy to draw a safe Democratic seat within Hamilton County and the Columbus area can now easily support two safe Democratic seats. Republicans actually realized the latter was happening during the 2011 redistricting. Before that, Franklin County was split 3-ways. I think Republicans were considering a 4-way split before finally conceding a Columbus seat to Democrats.

[politicallefty]

That is correct about Columbus. And really Columbus has behaved more like a sub belt city than any other Ohio point of comparison. Perhaps the growth of Franklin being measured in Hundreds of Thousands of people between recent decades has something to do with it. Obama was the first Dem presidential candidate to win the county by more than 10% in almost 100 years, it made sense for the GOP to draw a map for the 2000s that treated the city like Cincinnati. But the county has just continued to grow and it's partisanship now is comparable to Cuyahoga. Failing to create a pack there in 2010 would have led to some interesting elections after 2016. And now it's large enough to have a second seat when paired with a few suburbs, which the commission obsoletely will do if given a mandate from the voters.

Proportionality basically demands a second Democratic district in the Columbus area. The most natural way to do it would be an ultra-safe Democratic seat that basically starts at Franklin County's southern border and moves up, taking as much of the city as practicable. That leaves the remainder to be combined with D-trending Delaware County (the excess needed for population is basically irrelevant for political purposes).

Franklin County has been quite striking in its shift since 2000. As far as presidential numbers go, it will likely surpass Cuyahoga as the biggest vote margin in the state. Just look at the past results though:

2000: D+1 (+4k votes)
2004: D+9 (+48k votes)
2008: D+21 (+116k votes)
2012: D+23 (+130k votes)
2016: D+26 (+152k votes)
2020: D+31 (+198k votes)

You're really not kidding when you say it looks like a sunbelt city, both in terms of margins and raw vote margins. Off the top of my head, the trend looks most similar to Dallas County, except starting earlier and from a more Democratic baseline. There's a huge swing with Obama and another jump when Trump comes on the scene. The difference, of course, is that Democrats invested very heavily in Ohio in 2004.

The amendment also doesnt say anything about not splitting cities and it fully repeals the old commission that prevented splitting 100k+ cities, so I guess to create one of the safe D seats they'll probably split Cleveland.

Yeah, I read it that way too. However, the US Constitution and federal law is supreme, above the proportionality requirement. While a black-majority district is no longer possible within Cuyahoga County, any commission basically has to draw a black-opportunity district. Splitting Cleveland probably makes that easier, actually. A district anchored in the eastern half of Cuyahoga County that takes in some of the R-leaning suburbs in the southern and southeastern part of the county easily ensures black voters will get representation. At the least, taking out heavily Democratic Lakewood would reduce the number of white liberals. Combining the remainder of Cuyahoga County with Lorain County (which makes the most sense when you have a district within the county anchored to the east) leaves you with a good D-leaning district.

I haven't drawn it myself, but you can get a fairly proportional result with the following:

4 Safe D (Eastern Cuyahoga, Hamilton, and 2 Franklin-based)
1 Likely D (Western Cuyahoga+Lorain)
1 Lean D (Summit County-based)
1 Toss-up/Lean D (Lucas County-based)
1 Lean R (Montgomery County-based)