2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[politicallefty]

Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander?  I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.

They do. Anything less than 7-1 is obviously a nonstarter. I think the reason that the current map isn't 8-0 is annoying incumbents with annoying requests (e.g. one wanted to be in the DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis media markets to boost a potential future statewide run) but my money is on 8-0 after redistricting.

I think that was largely moot in the current map in terms of MD-03. Unless he's planning a gubernatorial run, John Sarbanes is probably a lifer in the House. MD-02 has its shape because Dutch Ruppersberger wants multiple military bases in his district that don't naturally fit together. In the last redistricting, Donna Edwards didn't get the district she would have liked. She was low in seniority, something that is now true of most of the MD delegation. Hoyer will get whatever he wants for as long as he wants to remain in Congress (the same is true of Ruppersberger).

I do think MD Dems will go for 8-0. Most maps have MD-01 crossing the Chesapeake, but Baltimore is another option. There are a number of parochial interests in Maryland, but some will be ignored for the greater good. Maryland is rock-solid Democratic and trending even moreso. They can push their luck, especially considering Biden won the state by 33%.

[politicallefty]

I'll just say that any serious map will keep Fort Meade and Aberdeen Proving Ground in the same district for Dutch Ruppersberger. Democrats can easily do an 8-0 map, but some parochial interests will have to be respected. I'd say that's the biggest alongside protecting Hoyer from having a strong minority or progressive primary challenge.

[politicallefty]

Looks like the Sarbanes monstrosity will finally be gone, the main reason why those with little political knowledge would point to Maryland as the epitome of extreme gerrymandering. Obviously, most of us here know why Maryland has such hideous lines. It's about time.

If I had to guess based on those maps, it'll be #3. It's cleaner and it's 8-0. It also looks like the only of the maps that keeps Aberdeen Proving Ground and Fort Meade in the same district, a high priority for Dutch Ruppersberger. However, considering that they have other maps that don't keep the two together, I wonder if he's considering retiring soon.

[politicallefty]

What is the basis of the challenge under the Maryland Constitution?

[politicallefty]

What is the basis of the challenge under the Maryland Constitution?

The same as NC/PA

That was a sincere question, not sarcasm. I assume each state constitution has different text.

[politicallefty]

What is the basis of the challenge under the Maryland Constitution?

The same as NC/PA

That was a sincere question, not sarcasm. I assume each state constitution has different text.

Its a clause about free elections . I gave the abbreviated answer.

That's true, but some of those clauses are more robust than others. I've also never seen a Republican judge/justice overturn a gerrymander under that criteria.