Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[politicallefty]

It seems like it hasn't been a good time for women in Canadian politics over the past few years.

Link

Women made up nearly half of the country's provincial and territorial leaders in 2013, but those ranks have slowly thinned as a succession of female premiers covering the entire political spectrum lost their re-election bids.

That list now includes Alberta's Rachel Notley, the last woman standing among Canada's first ministers until incoming premier Jason Kenney takes power and the seventh female provincial leader to be turfed from office in the past six years.

I'm not sure of the lean of the publication, although it's not the most flattering picture of Notley (they seem to make her look 10-15 years older than she is). However, the point is fairly clear. For all of its progressive virtues, Canada is very far from perfect in this regard.

[politicallefty]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

It also seems like a lot depends on what Quebec does. I think one of the most disappointing aspects of the 2019 election was the return of the Bloc. I watched some of the 2011 elections returns and the general thinking was "good riddance" to the Bloc. That may be true in terms of vote total for separatism, but certainly not true in terms of seats in the Commons.

Is it fair to assume Trudeau would've had a Majority Government had the Bloc not spiked so much?

[politicallefty]

What's going on in Alberta? If the high ALP vote is low information voters that are pro-Trudeau, it seems like those could be potential NDP voters. I'd imagine they're probably primarily urban voters. But is the unpopularity of the UCP a result of hubris, a right-wing party acting as if they can do anything and absolutely no wrong because they don't think they can lose in a right-wing province?

According to the latest Leger poll (PDF), the NDP is up 51-30 over the UCP. I don't recall the general sentiment after Notley's NDP losing power in 2019, but I was always happy that she was able to retain her leadership of the party. She didn't lose because she did anything wrong. It seems more like Albertans just wanted to pull things back to the right a bit, but still keep a strong opposition party. It seems to me like the NDP has an extraordinary opportunity to build itself into a strong centre-left party that Albertans find as an acceptable governing party in an effective two-party system. The era of the governing dynasty may be over in Alberta. It would be even more interesting if Alberta was entering a new phase of one-term governments and a sense of equilibrium. The NDP pulls too much to the left and is voted out and the UCP pulls too much to the right and is voted out and so on/vice versa.

[politicallefty]

There is no appetite to open the constitution to abolish the monarchy.

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1598799051008393216

For some reason, Canada has always struck me as the most difficult of the major Anglosphere countries to abolish the monarchy (apart from the UK itself). Obviously, the death of the Queen has changed things quite a bit. Those numbers suggest the issue isn't going away anytime soon. It's just a matter of finding the right solution/compromise. Justin Trudeau is certainly no Pierre Trudeau though.