Canadian by-elections, 2014

[politicallefty]

I'm surprised no one has made hay of the fact the Liberals have had three fools-gold byelections in the Prairie Provinces this parliament, Calgary Centre, Brandon-Souris, and now Fort MacMurray Athabasca

I was wondering about the same thing. Those are all big Conservative strongholds. On paper, I could see how Calgary Centre could be a potential target under the right circumstances. However, the others don't seem to have any business being close. I think the fact they're even close is rather amazing. From what I've read, the last time anything in Alberta outside of Edmonton went Liberal was 1968. Fort McMurray-Athabasca and its predecessor have always gone right-wing and Brandon-Souris only voted Liberal under the perfect storm of 1993.

Is it just the nature of a by-election that has been making these close (and thus, why the Liberals have been targeting them, to the extent of sending Justin Trudeau out to rural Alberta)? It seems to me that even if any of those ridings went Liberal, they wouldn't survive the general election (even if the Liberals were to maintain their relatively good poll numbers in the Prairie Provinces).

[politicallefty]

Indeed; Liberal gains out west will be constrained to large urban centres, be they Edmonton, Calgary or Winnipeg.

Based on the new ridings for the next general election, what are the best targets in Edmonton and Calgary? If the Tory vote margin can be held down in Alberta, it seems like there could be some potential seat gains for the other parties. It seems like a shame that the Liberals couldn't win Calgary Centre in a by-election. That could've been their breakthrough in that area. (As I said above, it hasn't happened since 1968.)

Right now, it doesn't seem like the NDP will reach its 2011 results next year, but they do seem to have a nice foothold in Edmonton-Strathcona. Was that riding made better or worse with redistribution? And what are their potential targets in Edmonton (with the assumption that the NDP cannot currently compete in Calgary, let alone rural Alberta)?

I know a lot of the consensus was that the Conservatives will be taking everything except Edmonton-Strathcona, but the Liberals and NDP would be stupid to let that happen without very serious competition.

(I hope I'm not going too off-topic here.)

[politicallefty]

To be fair, I think Quebec politics are especially unique. With Etobicoke-Lakeshore, it seems like that was a time when the PCs were running quite strong in the province, ahead of the Liberals.

I think it's widely accepted that the NDP win in Outremont was a breakthrough, and one that inevitably allowed them to sweep away the Bloc and take the vast majority of seats in the province.

[politicallefty]

Doubtless it was important in building up the party's credibility in the province, but you take things too far.

That really wasn't my intent at all. I was merely asking about the possibility of the Liberals breaking into the Conservative fortress that is Alberta. The 2008 NDP victory in Edmonton-Strathcona did not yield any further gains for the party in 2011 (other than solidifying that seat). All I said was that a Liberal win in Calgary Centre could have been a potential breakthrough for the party. I wouldn't even necessarily say the Liberals could do better than that, considering that Harper is leading the Conservative Party.

[politicallefty]

Very interesting posts from above. Obviously, everything will depend on how strong the the parties run next year. If the Conservatives stay in the low-to-mid 50s (or even below 50%), serious opportunities will open up for the Liberals and NDP.

From what I can tell, the downtown ridings in Calgary are Calgary Confederation and Calgary Centre (the former a more urban version of Calgary Centre-North that now contains the University of Calgary, while the latter has basically contracted). Now, I've seen the detailed map of results from 2011. What makes Calgary Skyview (which I think is a pretty cool name, as the successor of Calgary Northeast) such a top Liberal target? That did seem to be their best riding in Alberta and they appear to have a strong candidate, but generally anything outside of core urban areas have been toxic to the Liberals and NDP.

It looks like the Liberals (and NDP, to a somewhat lesser extent) have a lot to like from the way the new seats have been drawn in Edmonton and Calgary. The real challenge for the Liberals in Calgary seems to be consolidating a very divided vote on the left.