WaPo: GOP may add to 2010 house gains

[politicallefty]

I don't think you'll see Republican gains in the House, but it does look like they're almost guaranteed to keep the Majority. I do think it is mostly the result of Republican legislative gains in 2010 leading to noticeably more rampant gerrymandering. North Carolina is without a doubt one of the most egregious results of this in the country. It's a racial gerrymander that the Obama Justice Department should have fought (namely the ridiculous 12th district). In any sane map, you would have separate Charlotte and Winston-Salem—Greensboro districts.

It really is a shame the Supreme Court didn't put an end to this in prior cases, and there were a few justices that were leaning that way. It's disgusting when either party draws themselves into power. I think it's a complete mockery of the democratic system that we allow politicians to draw their own districts. I definitely support neutral redistricting commissions in all states. The problem comes when the focus is on unilateral disarmament on the Democratic side, while Republicans still have their way in their states. There needs to be a big push to force nonpartisan redistricting across the country, such as the California citizens' redistricting model.

[politicallefty]

I won't defend the NC Democrats from criticism on this issue. I know full well that it was their fault that the governor had no veto power over redistricting. Unfortunately, it's national Democrats that will also pay the price since at least three seats look gone with a possible fourth. Even so, it really is quite something to turn an Obama state into a 10-3 McCain majority. I'm not going to play the holier-than-thou game, but nowhere did Democrats go that far. That's the equivalent of stretching Chicago into downstate districts. With that said, I don't think what North Carolina Republicans did was right and I don't think what Illinois Democrats did was right. However, it's ridiculous that Democrats are subject to unilateral disarmament on the issue. I support neutral redistricting across the board.

[politicallefty]

The above post is amusing nonsense. Will County, Illinois was split into 6 Congressional districts.

I'm referring to the state as a whole. As I said, I don't defend partisan redistricting in any instance, including what happened in Illinois. Where exactly did I defend that map? My point was that the end result is far more obscene in the North Carolina map. At the very least, NC-12 should be struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander. It's completely nonsensical to string together Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro along with random territory in between. Like I said before, I don't support one side laying down arms while the other does not, but I'm not afraid to call out both sides on this issue. Can the same be said of you?

If you don't mind, I'd be more than happy to take this to another board so that we can compare our own versions on how the states should be drawn ideally (that is, unless you only view Democratic gerrymanders as bad and NC as just fine, in which case this conversation will almost certainly go nowhere).

[politicallefty]

The old NC-12 was wrong, just as this one is. It should be struck down either way. I don't care that Democrats drew it that way, but it is even worse now. If I can admit that what Democrats do can be wrong, why can you not admit what Republicans do can be wrong as well?

Once again, I'm not defending the Illinois map, but there are six at least somewhat reasonable looking districts downstate (12-13, 15-18). All of the other districts are in what is considered be Chicagoland. I won't dispute that there is a mess there, but the ugliest of those is the result of VRA-compliance (just as I'll admit NC-01 is). Are you only going to justify NC-12 based on the past? What about NC-04? I'm not justifying any of it, as my only point was that NC is more nonsensical than IL (but it's still wrong either way). I don't see the point in arguing this, as we're not going to agree on what is worse (nor does it ultimately matter). I'd rather see your ideas of what IL and NC should look like.

You also didn't answer my other points.

The above post is amusing nonsense. Will County, Illinois was split into 6 Congressional districts.

I'm referring to the state as a whole. As I said, I don't defend partisan redistricting in any instance, including what happened in Illinois. Where exactly did I defend that map? My point was that the end result is far more obscene in the North Carolina map. At the very least, NC-12 should be struck down as an illegal racial gerrymander. It's completely nonsensical to string together Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro along with random territory in between. Like I said before, I don't support one side laying down arms while the other does not, but I'm not afraid to call out both sides on this issue. Can the same be said of you?

The Democrats were the ones who initially drew a strip-corridor when the 12th was added to the state in the 1990's.

There was no veto in NC until the early 1990's when it was returned to the Governor for the first time since Reconstruction. Since there had just been a Republican Governor, the Democrats felt more secure in redistricting by leaving that out of the re-instated veto power. Not that vetos would have mattered, because the Republicans have a veto proof majority in one chamber and close to it in another. They would have simply did what what the MO GOP did and they needed far more defectors in that state.

See my point above. At the least, I do believe NC-12 was justified in some way as VRA-protected in the 90's. That is no longer the case since it isn't even majority-minority. Even as a VRA district, I think it would go too far to warrant protection though.

[politicallefty]

I'm sorry and I didn't mean to attack you. I wasn't accusing you of anything as my only response to you was about NC-12. My problem was with the other poster who seems to have a double-standard on redistricting in that it's fine when Republicans do it and wrong when Democrats do it. In my view, it shouldn't happen on either side. Just because I personally think NC is one of the worst doesn't mean that I approve of IL. It shouldn't happen in NC or IL (or anywhere else for that matter).

And I do basically agree with all of what you said, other than that I think a map should at least look somewhat reasonable, but I will admit that is subjective a la the obscenity test. I do know that some of the worst are clean-looking (such as Michigan), which is one of the reasons why I support neutral nonpartisan commissions with set standards across the entire country.

[politicallefty]

See my point above. At the least, I do believe NC-12 was justified in some way as VRA-protected in the 90's. That is no longer the case since it isn't even majority-minority. Even as a VRA district, I think it would go too far to warrant protection though.

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_3/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/RegPR_PDF/rptVTDRegPR-12.pdf

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_3/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/Vap_PDF/rptVTDVap-12.pdf


The new district is 37% white by VAP and 36% by registration.

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Congress_ZeroDeviation/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/RegPR_PDF/rptVTDRegPR-12.pdf

http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Download/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Congress_ZeroDeviation/Reports/VTD_SingleDistrict/Vap_PDF/rptVTDVap-12.pdf


The old district was 46% white by VAP and 45% by registration.

As I said before, the old district should have been struck down just as this one should be. While I'm not entirely up on the case law with respect to coalition districts, I do know that they are not viewed in the same manner as majority-black (or majority-Hispanic, for that matter) districts. In fact, I'm fairly certain they are not protected at all, which should easily make NC-12 an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. It is an obvious attempt to pack as many blacks in one district as possible. It should not be allowed any more than the old Z-district in Louisiana. With that said, VRA case law is pretty messy right now, but this one seems blatantly obvious to me. Once again, I have to ask you to answer my other points, mostly in that I want to see your idea of a fair NC map (that is, unless you think the new map is fair). I would hope you would join me in the NC redistricting topic in the Political Geography board.

Does the VRA even mandate a black district in western NC?

Just because you have distirct and it is majority/pluralityy black doesn't mean it is protected. That isn't how it works.

I think you're entirely right. My problem with NC-12 is that it is clearly designed to pack as many blacks into one completely nonsensical district, just like the Louisiana Z-district, which you may or may not be familiar with. If the VRA doesn't mandate such a district, then it should be struck down (and in my view, should have been struck down in its initial incarnation). While I am not making accusations at you, but if we're going to go deep into the VRA, there is a very strong case to be made that second VRA seats should be created in AL, LA, and SC at the least. In fact, you could make them look pretty reasonable (and definitely no worse than NC-12).