USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 03:44:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)  (Read 53187 times)
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,535
United States


« on: April 23, 2021, 12:26:03 PM »

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

Could this keep California at 53 or are they so far from the line it doesn't matter?
Even if it doesn't it will balloon the population of San Deigo to a point where it may not have its districts required to grow substantially to take the loss of a district.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,535
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2021, 01:39:35 PM »

Alright, here are some of the trends I noticed overall about this census:

1. The rural/urban split is worse than we thought:

While the estimates had been showing urban areas as the centers of growth and rural areas as declining. The census really puts the nail in the coffin, showing even worse figures than anticipated.

2. Sun Belt ain't so hot:

This seems to be the story after every single census. For all the reports about huge growth in the sunbelt, it always seems to be overexaggerated. The estimates for areas such as San Antonio and Phoenix were noticeably bad, but in general most urban, suburban, and rural areas down south underperformed.

3. NYC lives:

Again, another classic story from this decade; the death/decline of NYC. Turns out, city actually grew faster than the US this decade. I expect more stories about how the city is dying over this coming decade. Hell, we've already got a plethora to work from with 2020.

4. Moving data biases:

This one is more of a meta trend, but it really does look like sites such as Zillow, Redfin, Uhaul, etc. are missing something. Much of the predictions about growth have been based on their estimates, but it turns out that they grossly missed changes almost everywhere, with NYC being an extreme example. Perhaps this is due to the fact that those who use these sites tend to be young, well-off, and white? I honestly do not know for sure.

5. No real Hispanic undercount:

For all the worry about this, it looks like there wasn't really any undercount to speak of.
The sunbelt being so off my point to the Hispanic undercount happening a bit there.  And I know that in Arkansas, a lot of the cities have beat out the population estimates.  Fayetteville for example beat them out by 6k to pass Fort Smith for second largest.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 12 queries.