AR Congressional Races 2014

[JerryArkansas]

I heard some rumors from a close friend of Crawford saying he may run for governor. 

[JerryArkansas]

It is all temporary.  They will turn soon.

[JerryArkansas]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

[JerryArkansas]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

Why do you dislike him?

From meeting him, he seems like a person who is full of themselves.

[JerryArkansas]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

Why do you dislike him?

From meeting him, he seems like a person who is full of themselves.

What do you think of Pryor?

He seems Like a good guy, but I think he is little to . . . , he seems like he expects to win his elections.

[JerryArkansas]

He just now said he is in.

[JerryArkansas]

This is one of the reasons why I still respect Pryor, unlike some senate members on both sides.

[JerryArkansas]

Filing deadline was today. 

Senate:
Mark Pryor (D) - Incumbent
Tom Cotton (R) - US Representative
Mark H Swaney (G) - Liberal activist
Nathan LaFrance (L) - Businessman
Rod Bryan () - Some guy


AR-01:
Rick Crawford (R) - Incumbent
Jackie McPherson (D) - Mayor of Heber Springs

AR-02
French Hill (R) - Banker
Ann Clemmer (R) - State Representative
Conrad "Colonel" Reynolds (R) - Army veteran
Pat Hays (D) - Former Mayor of North Little Rock
Dianne Curry (D) - Little Rock School District President[/color]

AR-03
Steve Womack (R) - Incumbent
Thomas Brewer (R) - Some guy[/color]

AR-04
Tommy Moll (R) - Businessman
Bruce Westerman (R) - State Representative[/b]
Janis Percefull (D) - Some Chick
James Lee Witt (D) - Former FEMA Director

Bolded people will get the nomination.  I would call the First Likely R, Second pure Tossup, Third Safe R,and Forth Tossup/Tilts D if Westerman makes a gaffe, and pure tossup if not.

[JerryArkansas]

Forth Tossup/Tilts D if Westerman makes a gaffe, and pure tossup if not.

Do you think Moll could beat Westerman for the nomination? Moll's fundraising has been much better.

His name rec, Westerman is better, and Moll is more of a Libertarian to me by reading his plans.  That won't go over to well in the southern part of the district.

[JerryArkansas]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

On the surface they both, the 2nd and 4th look that way, but remember 2 things.  One, Mike Ross is running for Governor, which would bring up turnout in both the of the districts, bringing them both down a slot.  Two, the likelihood of the Republican nominee to say something really stupid and both of the Rep's nominees will have to go through hard primary fights, weakening both of them.

I think that Hill and Reynolds will draw from the same base and will split the vote allowing Clemmer to slip past them.  I do agree on the 4th primary though.

[JerryArkansas]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

On the surface they both, the 2nd and 4th look that way, but remember 2 things.  One, Mike Ross is running for Governor, which would bring up turnout in both the of the districts, bringing them both down a slot.  Two, the likelihood of the Republican nominee to say something really stupid and both of the Rep's nominees will have to go through hard primary fights, weakening both of them.

I think that Hill and Reynolds will draw from the same base and will split the vote allowing Clemmer to slip past them.  I do agree on the 4th primary though.

I figured Ross's strength in the 4th would be cancelled out by Cotton also driving up turnout. Pryor is also from the area.

And I don't know enough about any of the R candidates to guess they'll say something stupid. It seems like "R Candidate is likely to make a gaffe" has been written about nearly every congressional race at some point or another, and it unfortunately happens a lot less than predicted.

Remember the art of split ticketing which still happens here in Arkansas.  Also knowing the likely nominee's by hearing them speak, they are likely to say something stupid.

[JerryArkansas]

Pryor says he'd vote for Obamacare again.

He is going to get Blanched now.  No, he will probably do even worse than her.

[JerryArkansas]

Pryor says he'd vote for Obamacare again.

He is going to get Blanched now.  No, he will probably do even worse than her.

lol

I will still stand by my statement.

[JerryArkansas]

Pryor says he'd vote for Obamacare again.

He is going to get Blanched now.  No, he will probably do even worse than her.

lol

I will still stand by my statement.

JerryArkansas, I'm curious. Why do you support Tom Cotton but not Asa Hutchinson? You know Cotton is much more to the right than Hutchinson!

 
It is just one of those strange things that happens with me as a person.  I like Mike Ross a lot, and Pryor and go and die in a hole.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is a new internet attack ad against Mark Pryor.




I find it disgusting and so would many dems and moderate republicans in my state, but it will work in the democratic blue dog areas for Cotton.  They are the one's he needs to target.

[JerryArkansas]

Pryor isnt going anywhere. Voter ID law struck.

That doesn't effect the race much.  Black turnout is going to be horrible no matter what.  It could actually hurt Pryor.  Those poor whites could now come out in droves to get him out of office.

[JerryArkansas]

Pryor isnt going anywhere. Voter ID law struck.

That doesn't effect the race much. Black turnout is going to be horrible no matter what.  It could actually hurt Pryor.  Those poor whites could now come out in droves to get him out of office.

That's not true at all. The DSCC's ground game will shellshock Cotton.

Not what I'm seeing on the ground.  Many democrats, including Blacks aren't voting now.

[JerryArkansas]

Pryor isnt going anywhere. Voter ID law struck.

That doesn't effect the race much. Black turnout is going to be horrible no matter what.  It could actually hurt Pryor.  Those poor whites could now come out in droves to get him out of office.

That's not true at all. The DSCC's ground game will shellshock Cotton.

Not what I'm seeing on the ground.  Many democrats, including Blacks aren't voting now.

I'm sure you have a great pulse on the voting behavior of blacks in Arkansas...

I have a better idea than you.  Now don't act like you are some omniscient being who can see everything happening in the nation.  You can't, you are some little troll who doesn't know his ass from his mouth.