Do Republicans think Mitt Romney will win?

[Drew1830]

You put too much stock in polls.

And this is about as sophisticated as the response will get.

A lead of 1.5 points or more in a state polling average a week before the election has about a 98% hit rate.

They're almost never wrong.

Romney would need them to be wrong in multiple states in the same election for him to win.

[Drew1830]

because Romney has a compelling message, jobs and the economy;

Compelling indeed.

[Drew1830]

But, on the other hand, the early voting in Colorado, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio all seem to close Romney victories, which seems to translate into a Romney victory.

What early voting are you looking at?

Obama will have a 60,000+ early vote lead in Iowa with almost 2/3 of the vote in. The only state in which Romney leads among early voters in Colorado and they have the highest number of independents.

[Drew1830]

I'm 40.  I've been through several elections.  In 08 it was a no brainerf.  This time it's easy to see the polls are wrong.  It's hard to say that b/c it makes it easy for you guys to ridicule, I'm a cautiously optimistic person generally, but it boils down to the fundamentals and mainly the economy.  We'll find out in a couple days if you get D+8 turnout and win independents, that's what you have to have.

I'm very confident Romney wins.  I feel very good about a D+3 electorate or better towards R.

The fact that you're 40 is frightening. I hope to God that you have no kids and no responsibility.

[Drew1830]

Boy the polls sure got 2004 and 2010 right, right?  They got the angle Reid race right right, the RCP right before it had Angle beating Reid.

The Nevada Senate race got it wrong....for the Republican. In a state that historically underestimates the latino and union vote. Two strong Reid voting blocs.

Are you seriously banking on a severe outlier in one state that broke AGAINST your party?

Seriously?