Senate: will Democrats win Arizona, Nevada, or Missouri?

[Seriously?]

Missouri. McCaskill always figures out a way to eke out a win.

Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely. Arizona will revert back to normal form. Keep in mind they had a late primary and are still "healing' per se.

[Seriously?]

You underestimate the power of incumbency in most cycles, which is why McCaskill has a fighting chance in Missouri.

Heller has a lead in Nevada right now from all the recent polling. With that said, I do think NV is way more vulnerable than AZ for the Republicans.

Atlas is so preeictable. Of course you all are buying an EMERSON poll (of Nevada, no less) that is completely out of line with other polls. Atlas tried to argue that Trump and Heck would win Nevada because polls showed a similar thing (though about two weeks before this current point in the election), and people said I was crazy for thinking that they’d both lose, even in a good night for Republicans. We all saw how that turned out. People never learn.

Anyway, Democrats will win Nevada unless it’s a 2014-style red wave, while Arizona and Missouri will be close. Right now, I think Democrats win Arizona and Republicans win Missouri. #FundamentalsMatter

[Seriously?]

You underestimate the power of incumbency in most cycles, which is why McCaskill has a fighting chance in Missouri.

Heller has a lead in Nevada right now from all the recent polling. With that said, I do think NV is way more vulnerable than AZ for the Republicans.

Atlas is so preeictable. Of course you all are buying an EMERSON poll (of Nevada, no less) that is completely out of line with other polls. Atlas tried to argue that Trump and Heck would win Nevada because polls showed a similar thing (though about two weeks before this current point in the election), and people said I was crazy for thinking that they’d both lose, even in a good night for Republicans. We all saw how that turned out. People never learn.

Anyway, Democrats will win Nevada unless it’s a 2014-style red wave, while Arizona and Missouri will be close. Right now, I think Democrats win Arizona and Republicans win Missouri. #FundamentalsMatter

Here's the thing about incumbency. It helps when an incumbent is popular and has strong ties to their state, or when it's a good year for their party. Incumbency isn't exactly helping Rauner in IL-GOV, but it's invaluable to someone like Baker in MA-GOV. Why? Popularity. It's also why Manchin is in better shape than McCaskill. Polls have consistently shown Heller to be unpopular, sometimes less popular than Trump in NV, and this isn't looking to be a good year for Republicans.

All in all, it's more believable that polls are underestimating Democrats in NV, which has happened many times before, than it is that there's going to be a red wave or that NV will swing massively Republican even during a blue wave.

I hardly call an incumbent keeping his or her seat a "red wave" or a "blue wave" kind of thing. That's what generally happens in America ~90-98% of the time. If Heller wins, it's basically status quo. Despite all the hoopla about red wave/blue wave in the press, this could honestly just be a status quo-type election.