Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Hnv1]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

Future military administration?

Joking(?) about the imminent military coup

What would you place the odds of a military coup at between "Centrist wins in Northern Europe" and "Tuesday in Burkina Faso"?

I think I was really from the first people to say it is starting to become a possibility going back to 2019 (I can't be bothered with searching now but my hunch was were heading there after he failed to form a government in May 2019).
The odds kept increasing.

After yesterday I think the odds increased dramatically to 30-40%.

As I see it, he would rather the SC and military stop him and turn him into a martyr then to stop it by himself and lose face with the base. He's just thinking on the best possible collision atm.

So, either way, he probably doesn't make it a full four years?

At this rate I don't see them making it to July.

[Hnv1]

President Herzog published his offer - dubbed the People's Draft, which is basically a constitution, and a decent one so the right immediately rejected it.

I'm not sure what Herzog is playing at, it's clear this is not what he negotiated with the right for weeks, so if he published the draft leaning to the liberal side he must have aimed at something.

[Hnv1]

It appears the government is moving back from the brink.

https://www.heritagefl.com/story/2023/03/17/news/justice-minister-hails-proposed-compromise-on-israeli-supreme-court-reform/17972.html

That’s a faux compromise that is many way worse than their plan.

[Hnv1]

It appears the government is moving back from the brink.

https://www.heritagefl.com/story/2023/03/17/news/justice-minister-hails-proposed-compromise-on-israeli-supreme-court-reform/17972.html

That’s a faux compromise that is many way worse than their plan.

How so as in it's worse?

It completely politicise the judicial appointment process down to magistrate courts.
It reduces judicial review of legislation and administrative acts to bare minimum.
It has no overlapping mechanisms to preserve constitutionally guarded human rights laws
It completely removes any obligation by the government to seek any legal advice before implementing any sort of policy.


Rubbish.

Herzog’s platform wasn’t amazing but decent enough. This is a plan ordered by Levine and drafted by one imbecile (Albashan) and one vengeful senile (Friedman).

[Hnv1]

Isn't the number of protesters that voted for any of the government parties about zero?

There's probably some that voted Likud. But it doesn't matter - nearly half the country thinks this "reform" is the end of democracy, and it includes refusing to serve in the IDF's reserve, not investing money in the country, possibly leaving. This protest movement is unprecedented in Israel's history. The government has no legitimacy to pass this.

Looks like the court nullification bill has been shelved for the time being. They're still moving ahead with some limited bills to limit the court's power to disqualify corrupt officials and the like.

Not really. The bill they're moving ahead with is the most important one that will end the separation of branches by giving the coalition practical control of judicial appointments, and no one said anything about shelving the rest. Nothing dramatic happened, idk where you got the news that the government retreated from this

The party in power usually has the whip hand in judicial appointments, no? The issue is whether the appointments occur in the ordinary course of vacancies, or you have a court expansion or packing scheme (which I vehemently oppose in the US), it seems to me. I appreciate Israel has it's court at present very insulated, but moving more towards the US model would be hard to characterize as abandoning the rule of law per se.

I did look up how the UK does it, and it was incredibly complicated, so I don't think very replicable.

In Israel there's a committee made up of 2 MKs, 2 Ministers, 3 judges and 2 bar association representatives. You need 7 votes to appoint judges, so both the coalition and judges have a veto.

It's certainly fair to make some changes, but the current system is fairly balanced. The new government legislation would change it to give the coalition an absolute majority (with some quirks). This ends the separation of branches. It's not comparable to the US system because in the US there's a strong separation between the legislative and executive branches.

Another issue is that this legislation will also let the coalition decide which judge becomes chief justice (rather than seniority). It's terrible on its own because it means Supreme Court judges will need to be liked by the government. In the US, once a judge is appointed they don't need to care about the government or congress.

The chief justice in the US does not have much more power than the rest (just the power to assign cases if in the majority). Does the chief justice in Israel have so much more power than the rest on the bench that it is worth whoring for?

You mention the lack of separation of powers. Can parliament overturn a judicial decision on a vote? Does Israel have a Constitution that you need a supra majority to change?

I'm not an expert, but the chief justice in Israel does have a seat in the judge appointment committee (under the "reform" too), and importantly, they get to assign judges to cases where a full composition isn't needed.

Israel doesn't have a constitution. There are "basic laws" that don't require a supermajority to legislate or change, and they are meant to serve as a quasi constitution. Another component of the "reform" is to let the coalition overturn a judicial decision.

Some of the basic laws do require special majorities to alter but this is besides the point. I also think Israel has a constitution simply not one unified document.

This is besides the point. The truth is it doesn’t matter how you phrase constitutional norms or design institutional checks and balances; if the judges presiding are partisan quacks they’ll interpret anything to the benefit of the party. That’s what Likud want politicised and docile judges.
There are plenty of very good right wing judges in the system. They don’t care about promoting them, they want the partisan hacks in.

[Hnv1]

What are the actual practical implications of the repeal of the 2005 Disengagement Law?

Thus far it was illegal for Israelis to enter the areas left in 2005, now that the legal ban is lifted illegal settlements could pop, and in due time they will be legalised

[Hnv1]

Bibi’s not backing down here. Levine has him in the groin

[Hnv1]

Bibi’s not backing down here. Levine has him in the groin

War it is. What do you think about the chances the SC overturns the judiciary committee law? My lawyer friend seems to think the chances are low.

I don’t think it’s really a legal question. The unconstitutional constitutional amendment doctrine is nebulous as is and can provide reasonings to both ends. What will settle the matter is political legitimacy, if the court feels it has public backing some of the moderate judges will side with the liberal and strike it down.
So far as I see it we’re heading there

[Hnv1]

Bibi just went all-in. I’m raising my previous probabilities for a coup to 45%.

[Hnv1]

What a night. We're nearly there

[Hnv1]

It's over. Either Bibi forfeits or he'll be ousted by force.

A last pocket in Likud and Otzma are threatening Bibi and par the course he's chickensh**t

[Hnv1]

Looking at the reform I don’t get what the massive opposition is given that it would still result in less say by politicians on who gets to be on the judicial branch than here in the US where every judicial appointment is made by the president and then has to be approved by the senate .

Mmmm. like. you. know. maybe. the. US. legal. system. is. like. really. really. bad?

It's a slippery slope to that abysmal abomination you yanks call a justice system, we're not willing to accept even a minor politicization of the judicial branch.

[Hnv1]

It's over. Either Bibi forfeits or he'll be ousted by force.

My expectation is Gantz replacing RZ in the coalition. You think I'm too pessimistic?

Can't see that happening.

Firstly, he doesn't have the numbers as I don't see the whole Statist party following him. Secondly, Bibi won't push a party from his bloc away, it's against his instincts.

I think the government will fall soon

[Hnv1]

Looking at the reform I don’t get what the massive opposition is given that it would still result in less say by politicians on who gets to be on the judicial branch than here in the US where every judicial appointment is made by the president and then has to be approved by the senate .

Mmmm. like. you. know. maybe. the. US. legal. system. is. like. really. really. bad?

It's a slippery slope to that abysmal abomination you yanks call a justice system, we're not willing to accept even a minor politicization of the judicial branch.

How do you put checks on the judicial system though if judges and lawyers can effectively have the most say who fills vacancies?

You guys unlike us dont even have a written constitution so that gives the Supreme Court more power as at least here in the US , the Supreme Court has to make their rulings on the basis of a written constitution while in Israel that does not seem to be the case which effectively can make your Supreme Court a Super Legislature.
 
Checks and Balances is one of the best ways to defend liberty and yes we do that better than any nation on earth despite the hate we and our system seem to get.

What a nonissue jeez. Let's start naming all the dictatorships that began with the executive branch overreaching. now let's compare it with the tyrannies led by the judiciary. oh, wait there are none!

We give politicians input, but the bottom line is that we want the nomination process to be professional, and we cultivate a liberal ethos among jurists.

Political power, of the harmful type that leads to persecution and human rights abuse, is held by the executive and legislative branches. not the judiciary. They are the ones that need to be checked, the judiciary requires only open dialogue.

[Hnv1]

If I were Netanyahu I would push for a vote on the reform bill ASAP and indicate that if it failed he will call for new elections and let the electorate decide if they want to vote for a majority that would enact these reforms.

LOL. there is absolutely no way Bibi takes this to the people, he will get absolutely smashed in the polls. in fact, he's already damaged goods.

[Hnv1]

Not over. The right is trying to marshal their people to Jerusalem and Bibi is thinking of going through. He’s playing a very dangerous game

[Hnv1]

So where's Bibi?

Physically? He's in the Knesset atm trying to appease Ben Gvir

[Hnv1]

Otzma agree to postpone the legislation in exchange for Ben Gvir getting a private militia.

 that. I’m heading out to protest.

[Hnv1]

I do appreciate this colloquium on political theory...but you're blocking this thread with everyone's oh-so-unique takes. take it elsewhere

[Hnv1]

To our Israeli posters, what is the sentiment on the ground today? Are people starting to go back to their everyday lives or is the mobilization continuing? How are people reacting to Ben Gvir's planned militia? Is it seen as a serious threat?

I don't think it's a "back to normal" atmosphere. There's very little faith in the negotiations hosted by the President, and regardless, this government has lost the legitimacy by many.
However, it was an exhausting three months and there's a holiday season soon. The protests will come back even stronger towards the summer

[Hnv1]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

I really doubt this national guard nonsense could take shape so fast, and public officials have ways of delaying undesired policy.

But if they agree a 1.5% general cuts the Haredi are going to find out they can’t afford all the things they’ve demanded…

Ben Gvir is the key for taking down this government

[Hnv1]

Best fit for PM:
Bibi 32%
Lapid 32%


Bibi 31%
Gantz 38%


Chanel 12 poll. Unprecedented

[Hnv1]

Best fit for PM:
Bibi 32%
Lapid 32%


Bibi 31%
Gantz 38%


Chanel 12 poll. Unprecedented

Do you think that if the election was held today Likud could even come in third?

No. YA and NUP split too much of their voters base. If they unite maybe but then they’ll lose the moderate right voters they’ve picked from Likud

[Hnv1]

I think it's unprecedented as armed forces are usually to the right of the elected government and not to the left. Kemalist Turkey is indeed the closest but even there that's not really a like to like.

[Hnv1]

The obvious exception to that might be when said elected government is *very* right wing.

Like in Israel now?

Only comparable situation would be outright fascist countries in Europe where the armed forces and traditional aristocracy were just right wing but not that right. But those countries weren’t liberal democracies so again different