Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

So, any recommendations on who I should vote for in the Labor list primary?
My current list:
100% sure: MKs Ibtisam Maraana and Gilad Kariv, anti corruption activist Tomer Avital
Maybe: MKs Naama Lazimi and Efrat Rayten, former Tel Aviv City Councillors Maharte Baruch and Maya Nuri, left-religious activist Yaya Fink
Absolutely not: journalist Yair Tarchitsky

For: Maraana, Lazimi, Nuri.
Agnostic: Kariv, Ryten.
Absolutely not: Shefa, Avital, Maharte.

Maharte is one disloyal opportunist. It will be a bad call letting her in. Lazimi had been a great council member in Haifa and a good MK, despite some differences I think she's worthy of a spot. Avital is an absolute empty shell of a person and he shouldn't be a legislature. And Shefa is nothing but a lobbyist of rich farmers and Kibbutzniks

I've been iffy on Avital but he kinda convinced me via WhatsApp. I like that he's not dogmatic on economics - we need this balance, plus I think he could be good electorally. But I guess I'll need to think about it more.
Why do you like Nuri?

Honestly the MK I'm most enthusiastic about is Maraana. Probably my favorite MK right now

I have no problem with being non dogmatic, I have a problem with lacking any substantive ideology and only caring about procedural matters like transparency. Very technocratic.

As to Nuri, I think the housing crisis is a major issue, and although I own my house feel like it should be a major item on the agenda. Nuri worked on fixing the rental market in Tel Aviv and we need new legislation to secure tenants rights to go through.

Maraana is indeed a nice addition but from the buzz I’m hearing Michaeli and the rest of the big groups in the party want her out.

[Hnv1]

It appears both Ra'am and Balad held primaries yesterday.

Mansour Abbas won the leadership contest by 85%. Number 2 on the list will be MK Walid Taha, with places 3 and 4 going to Abbas loyalists. Hence, unlike last year Abbas can offer much more control of his party as a coalition partner with 3/4 of the list are his people.

Sami Abo Shada was reelected as Balad leader. former MK Schade will be his number 2 though in an unrealistic spot on the Joint List.

Hadash internal elections are something of esoterics. I don't know anyone part of the "inner circle" people that understands how exactly people are elected to the party convention or by what format the convention decides the list. The fact that Hadash is, in fact, two parties, the ICP and the rest, makes it even more obscure. I know former MK Jabarin is challenging Odeh for leadership, but I don't know which body will decide it: the political bureau of the Israeli Communist Party or the united convention of Hadash. Yes, they have a politburo
It's quite ridiculous the year is 2022 and they still act like the Shin Bet is tracking them like a revolutionary organisation.

[Hnv1]

Labour primaries today. As someone who recalls the first real primaries vividly (1992, there were leadership primaries since 1981) it's quite sad to see what happened to the party since. My grandad had a list of people from the "right" camp (i.e., Peres not Rabin or the youngsters around Ramon) and the Haifa branch was so big back then there were 3 voting stations in town (there were over 250K voters).

Well nostalgia aside here's my prediction for today:
1. Michaeli (chairman)
2. Kariv
3. Bar Lev
4. Lazimi
5. Shefa
6. Ryten
7. Fink
8. Moati
9. Shay
10. Maraana

Michaeli might conveniently use her power to place 2 candidates in the first 10 by putting one on the 7th spot pushing Fink and Moati back.

[Hnv1]

Labour primaries today. As someone who recalls the first real primaries vividly (1992, there were leadership primaries since 1981) it's quite sad to see what happened to the party since. My grandad had a list of people from the "right" camp (i.e., Peres not Rabin or the youngsters around Ramon) and the Haifa branch was so big back then there were 3 voting stations in town (there were over 250K voters).

Well nostalgia aside here's my prediction for today:
1. Michaeli (chairman)
2. Kariv
3. Bar Lev
4. Lazimi
5. Shefa
6. Ryten
7. Fink
8. Moati
9. Shay
10. Maraana

Michaeli might conveniently use her power to place 2 candidates in the first 10 by putting one on the 7th spot pushing Fink and Moati back.

Isn't there a criss cross system of man-woman-man-woman, meaning that 2 men in a row is impossible? Anyway I voted for:
- Maraana
- Kariv
- Lazimi
- Nuri
- Avital
- Rayten
- Fink

And this is my prediction (probably going to be awfully wrong):
1. Michaeli
2. Rayten
3. Kariv
4. Lazimi
5. Bar Lev
6. Moati
7. Shefa
8. Maraana
9. Fink
10. Honestly idk since it has to be a woman, Nuri?

The wording of the section indicates:
.רשימת המפלגה
1.7 .במקום הראשון תשובץ יו"ר המפלגה.
2.7 .אחרי יו"ר המפלגה, ישובץ המועמד או המועמדת שקיבלו את מירב הקולות. לאחריהם
ישובצו המועמדים והמועמדות לסירוגין כך שיישמר האיזון המגדרי כך שלאחר כל גבר
תוצב אישה, ולאחר כל אישה יוצב גבר )להלן: עקרון האיזון המגדרי(.

It depends on whether a male getting most votes precludes a male getting 3th spot, where does the criss cross starts. 7.2 indicates the criss cross starts after the 2nd spot on the list, but it depends on your electoral committee I guess. It could be women in <1, 2, 4>, <1, 3, 5>, <1, 4, 6> as I see it

[Hnv1]

~58% turnout

1. Michaeli
2.Naama Lazimi
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Ryten
5. Ram Shefa
6. Emili Moati
7. Yaya Fink
8. Ibtisam Maraana
9. Omer Bar Lev
10. Mahrate Baruch
11. Amir Knifes (druze)
12. Maya Nuri

Yair Tarchitsky is 23rd which is poor for him.
Tomer Avital 19...hahahhaha.
Nachman Shay 17! wow, that's a big middle finger from the voters.

Massive for Lazimi and the socialists. It seems both of Labour's current ministers are out. Moati actually got more votes than Shefa but fell to 6 over gender equality.

Top 10 by raw votes
Lazimi
Kariv
Ryten
Moati
Sheffa
Fink
Bar Lev
Maraana
Shay
Avital

[Hnv1]

~58% turnout

1. Michaeli
2.Naama Lazimi
3. Gilad Kariv
4. Efrat Ryten
5. Ram Shefa
6. Emili Moati
7. Yaya Fink
8. Ibtisam Maraana
9. Omer Bar Lev
10. Mahrate Baruch
11. Amir Knifes (who?)
12. Maya Nuri

Yair Tarchitsky is 23rd which is poor for him
Tomer Avital 19...hahahhaha
Nachman Shay 17! wow that's a big finger from the voters

Massive for Lazimi and the socialists

Knifes is a longtime Druze party activist.

This is a big drama indeed - Bar Lev is a big loser here, almost certainly out of the next Knesset. Maraana also likely out but she might get in if the party has 6-6 seats and is in government. Shay also a huge loser, voters said "bye bye old men". Tarchitsky doing so badly is interesting considering Lazimi is first - suggests the voters aren't exactly ideological socialists, but Lazimi was able to be broadly popular. Fink might juuuust about miss it again.

I hoped Maraana can pass Moati but I guess the results are fine.

If my trade unionist morrocan hating uncle voted Lazimi you can see she has a wide appeal

[Hnv1]

50% counter in the Likud primaries. Preliminary remarks:

- Yariv Levine is heading to the first spot along with a strong showing for the Bibist wing. Him and Ohana will be Bibi's demolition contractors for the judicial system if elected. Levine waited on the side from quite a long time and refused to take bigger ministerial roles offered saying he wants the Justice Ministry and only when he can reform it. His time is fast approaching.
-Barkat v. Katz in the battle of successors-in-their-own-eyes ended with a 1-0 to Barkat and both sides relegated. Neither are in the top 5 and Katz might be out of the top 10.
- Edelstein challenged Bibi for a second and was pushed way way back
- Hangebi, the worthless sod is finally out after 34 years in the Knesset. He will probably get the 50th spot.
- Levy Abukasis didn't manage to fool anyone. Embarrassing night for her
- the new names are: Danny Danon returning from the UN, former editor of Israel Hayom Boaz Bismouth, and some defence lawyer that specialized in representing rapists.

Provisional list after 70% of the votes:
1. Bibi
2. Levine (who won the first spot by quite a hefty margin)
3. Eli Cohen
4. Yoav Galant
5. Dudi Amsalem
6. Amir Ohana
7. Yoav Kish
8. Nir Barkat
9. Miri Regev
10. Avi Dichter
11. Shlomo Karai'i
12. Miki Zohar
13. Israel Katz (hahahahah)
...
23. Yuli Edelstein (ouch)

Sitting MKs or are probably out: Hanegbi, Gamliel, Levy Abksis, Ybarkan, Keren Barak.

Notable people who also failed to get a realistic spot: Gilad Sharon (son of), Avi Simchon (Bibi's pet economy professor), Moshe Feiglin, Uzi Dayan, Erez Tadmor.

Despite some minor issues, this day was a massive victory for Bibi who solidified his control on the party. It is quite clear that Likud members are in aggressive mood.

[Hnv1]

Nissim Vaturi, the dumbest person to grace the Knesset, is back! At least Likud always provide comic relief

[Hnv1]

99% counted in the likud primary:
- top 5 is Yariv Levin, Eli Cohen, Yoav Gallant, David Amsalem, Amir Ohana. A mix of uncontroversial Netanyahu toadies and combative extremists.
- Nir Barkat 7th (8th on the list), not great but puts him in a good position for the succession.
- Yisrael Katz down to the 13th spot, embarrassing for him
- Yuli Edlestein down from 2nd to 24th, if I were him I'd resign
- only 4 women in the top 30- Miri Regev 9th, Galit Distel (biggest Netanyahu cultist and most deranged person in the party) 20th, Attorney Tali Gotliv (known for representing rapists with the most disgusting tactics of victim blaming and deriding you can imagine) in the 25th spot reserved for a new woman, longtime MK Gila Gamliel in an embarrassing 30th place
- fmr UN Ambassador Danny Danon 15th, fmr Yisrael Hayom editor Boaz Bismuth 27th (after reserved spots, by raw votes he's like 19th)
- Kahanist May Golan 32nd
- longest serving non Netanyahu Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi out, placed 46th
- Flops: far right activist Eretz Tadmor 47th, Gilad Sharon (son of Ariel) 48th, MK Orly Levy Abekasis 50th, Bibi economic advisor Avi Simchon 53rd, former hyped Zehut leader Moshe Feiglin 54th, fmr MKs Ayoob Kara and Osnat Mark, and Jerusalem Deputy Mayor Fleur Hassan Nahum even below that

Edit: looks like Edlestein passed Haim Katz and will jump to spot 18. Small consolation

Does the fact Levy & Feiglin came so low down mean they may try and revive their personal parties? Getting 1-2% between them could be enough to drag others down below the threshold and affect the final makeup.

Feiglin might be tempted but bottom line they’re both past it. I don’t see 0.5% voting for Levy, she’s as popular as STDs. Feiglin could rejoin the fringe libertarian party but his personal appeal these days is quite low.

[Hnv1]

Maariv poll from this morning:
Likud 33
YA 25
B&W 10
Religious Zionism 10
Shas 9
UTJ 7
Labour 7
JL 6
YB 5
Ra'am 4
Zionist Geist 4
Meretz 2.9%
Zalicha's Economic Party 1%
Free Israel (Eli Avidar) 0.3% - anti vaxxers
Jewish Home 0.3%
Green Leaf & Ousrat El Islamia 0.2% (it seems the potheads are running with a naturalist Islamic party)

The polls are starting to sediment, and key points are:
- YA are climbing in the seats count. from around 20, they're moving up to mid-20s. With a decent push, Lapid might make it a head-to-head run, bringing YA close to 30 seats
- The Bibi bloc is going to get a majority if one of either Meretz\Zionist Spirit falls under the threshold. They certainly will get a majority if Zionist Spirit passes the bar, but Meretz doesn't.
- B&W are shrinking, and they will continue to do so, come election day Lapid can drink 2-4 seats from them and showing charity to Meretz to get them over the bar

[Hnv1]

Hadash list:
1. Aymen Odeh
2. Aida Tuma Sliman
3. Ofer Kassif
4. Youssef Al Atouna

There was a challenge to Sliman and Kassif trying to pick more moderate representatives but it failed. The 4th spot will go to a Bedouin meaning Hadash might try and bite off Ra’am there.

The list will change once the JL arrange the list together

[Hnv1]

Former IDF CoGS LTG. Eisenkot joins B&W+NH and they will run under the banner the "Statist Party"*. The party vows to hold open primaries before the next election cycle.
I think it's a mistake by everyone. B&W fail to see where the wind is blowing to, ex-generals aren't that appealing as they were. Eisenkot is going to be a number 3 in a party that is unlikely to form a government or survive much past the interests of its two current leaders.
He should have either joined Lapid or start from scratch with Labour.


* I have a hard time translating the term ממלכתי to English. It's a very idiosyncratic Israeli political concept that denotes to Ben Gurion's desire to ditch the pre-48 class/partisan politics and cherish the new political institutions. It's about reverence to the state institutions and radical centrism. I think the name is a reference of Ben-Gurion's failed splinter party that ran in 1969 (Wikipedia translated it as the National List but I don't think it does justice to the meaning) and Eisenkot is a huge fan of Ben Gurion (overrated PM for me).
I think statism captures more of the essence here

[Hnv1]

Former IDF CoGS LTG. Eisenkot joins B&W+NH and they will run under the banner the "Statist Party"*. The party vows to hold open primaries before the next election cycle.
I think it's a mistake by everyone. B&W fail to see where the wind is blowing to, ex-generals aren't that appealing as they were. Eisenkot is going to be a number 3 in a party that is unlikely to form a government or survive much past the interests of its two current leaders.
He should have either joined Lapid or start from scratch with Labour.


* I have a hard time translating the term ממלכתי to English. It's a very idiosyncratic Israeli political concept that denotes to Ben Gurion's desire to ditch the pre-48 class/partisan politics and cherish the new political institutions. It's about reverence to the state institutions and radical centrism. I think the name is a reference of Ben-Gurion's failed splinter party that ran in 1969 (Wikipedia translated it as the National List but I don't think it does justice to the meaning) and Eisenkot is a huge fan of Ben Gurion (overrated PM for me).
I think statism captures more of the essence here

I think "Institutionalist Party" would be a better translation then. Statist is frequently used in a pejorative sense by opponents to refer to someone who wants a big, hugely powerful government in English, though I definitely get where you are coming from using it here.

Well but that's what they wanted! Etatism sounds too libertarian, but Statism capture their faith in the state. I don't know of any other country with such strong statist political centre.

[Hnv1]

Yesh Atid seems to be catching up:


Sorry, didn't saw that the poll had been already posted. Anyway, does the N&W+NH merger benefits Lapid, because it looks that Gantz is a bit desperate?

I think that all things considered Eisenkot will add nothing.

The small bump in polls is usually the highest point the party gets, so from an expected 14 seats by election day they'll be closer to 8. Lapid benefits from the whole tripartite merger as he can easily take voters from them and lay easy on both Labour and Meretz.

Gantz doesn't have a government and the Haredi aren't leaving Bibi, anyone saying otherwise is living in 1999

[Hnv1]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Most of the people in countries you refer don’t know who Bibi is and would have drifted anti-Israel even if Herzog was PM since 2015. Correlation is not causation, especially soft correlation.
What you’re referring to is simply woke post-colonialism, and tbf I couldn’t care less what Sociology students in Latin America or Dublin say about anything.

[Hnv1]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Most of the people in countries you refer don’t know who Bibi is and would have drifted anti-Israel even if Herzog was PM since 2015. Correlation is not causation, especially soft correlation.
What you’re referring to is simply woke post-colonialism, and tbf I couldn’t care less what Sociology students in Latin America or Dublin say about anything.

I think you misunderstand me -- one of the most visible shifts is poor or right-wing or especially poor and right-wing parts of Latin America becoming much more in favor of Israel, to the point that talking about ~The Conflict~ is now a staple for people right-wing candidates (particularly in Central America, but also, eg Colombia/Brazil; overlaps with places where there've been really large-scale conversions to Protestantism) in a way that it really wasn't 20 years ago.

Whether that matters any more than sociology students in Dublin can be questioned, but if we're going to have a conversation on international opinions on Israel then it's tough to avoid noticing that rhetoric from a Bolsonaro or Duque or Bukele has shifted from 'not caring' to 'overwhelming positivity'.

Applies mutatis mutandis to right wing nutters across the world. Where political sides pick "sides" between "Israel" and "Palestine" they more often than not don't care what actually happens between Israel and Palestine.

[Hnv1]

Hopefully the Netanyahu clowns don't win too much. He is kinda like Trump in the sense that he really increased hatred around the world for Israel and Jews in general.

See, I'm not a fan of Netanyahu, but I don't think this is true. He presided (from 2009-2020) over an epochal increase in support for Israel from countries around the world (certainly relations are better with most of Latin America/Africa/Arab countries/non-western Europe/India/China); something like the reverse of this is probably closer to accurate. His foreign policy successes are the most coherent reason to support him.

Yes, but isn't that governments rather than people?

In the Muslim world, sure, but elsewhere I think it goes deeper. Both Pew numbers and just a casual look at rhetoric throughout Latin America/sub-Saharan Africa/eastern Europe shows an enormous shift, and in the US polling pretty clearly says that consolidation on the right (which not that long ago was pretty ambivalent) has been worth much more than very little sliding on the left. The one country where it seems like there's solid evidence that views of Israel have plummeted in the Netanyahu era is, oddly enough, Ireland.

I don't know how much of this is attributable to Netanyahu -- it kind of seems like something that would've happened anyway -- but success at foreign affairs is probably his biggest selling point.

Ireland’s always had a strong undercurrent of catholic anti-semitism - it’s similar to Poland in that respect - but unlike Poland due to their “neutrality” in World War Two they never had the Holocaust to make them reevaluate. Although that’s partly cos the Jewish community has always been tiny in Ireland.

It’s also still the country that gave condolences on Hitlers death after all - though De Valera himself pretty clearly wasn’t an anti-Semite he certainly tolerated anti-semites in his government. The government also sought to punish Irish people/soldiers who went to fight the Nazis - a practise that continued well in to the 90s. I wouldn’t go as far as saying they were Pro-Nazi, but a lot of Irish politicians would say the British were as bad if not worse than the Nazis - which at least speaks to a disregard for the Jews.

Also the SF types like to identify with Palestine (and the ANC back in the day) because it makes their cause seem more legitimate & they like to pretend they are an anti-colonial force - it’s not hard to find SF figures banging on about the Rothschilds or praising Hitler. There’s also the openly anti semitic Mick Wallace who’s basically a Neo-Nazi conspiracist on Jews - and he continues to get elected.

So I’m not convinced support really has declined in Ireland, Israel was never likely to get much of a hearing there no matter what it did.

—I just wanted to say, he said. Ireland, they say, has the honour of being the only country which never persecuted the jews. Do you know that? No. And do you know why?
He frowned sternly on the bright air.
—Why, sir? Stephen asked, beginning to smile.
—Because she never let them in


Back in olden times I thought of studying in Trinity College, a two weeks trip in Dublin made it pretty clear that would be an ill decision.
I found that antisemitism in the UK+Ireland falls under three major trends:
- old antisemitism: posh/rural people who dislike "Jewish Bankers". pretty ripe with the aristocracy but they tend to keep to themselves and keep quiet. Also ripe with nonconformist churches
- the Muslim anti-Zionism spiraled into full blown antisemitism: I don't know why but it's especially dominant in the Pakistani community.
- old school catholic antisemitism: heavy traces of it with Catholics in Ireland, Scotland, and old Labour working class voters

[Hnv1]

My partner and I tried to go to the Jewish section of Belfast City Cemetery a few years ago, as she's got relatives buried there, but unfortunately that section is now closed off to the public after repeated attacks on gravestones there.

The most famous member of that community is Chaim Herzog, of course, whose father was known as the Sinn Féin Rabbi.

Pre Civil War Sinn Fein were very different to post civil war Sinn Fein, they had a much wider range of support from across the spectrum.

They also had a substantial contingency of protestant member and supporters for Irish home rule\nationalism before the treaty. The Presbyterian churches back then, in both Scotland and Ireland were some of the most vehement voices of antisemitism.


We can leave the interesting Jewish-Irish-British discussion for now though...

Meretz disqualified over a thousand Bedouin members whose membership was fictive. So Golan is heading for a lose next week.

The rest of the political scene is relatively quiet. Smotric and Ben Gvir are bickering about their joint run as usual

[Hnv1]

Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

[Hnv1]

Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

Any prediction for the Meretz list primary tomorrow?

Hard to tell. Meretz doesn't do primaries often, and with such small membership (18K), small differences are big differences. Golan still has solid support from the old and the Kibbutz voters I think he will finish in the top 6 despite everyone else hating him. I can't really predict further, but I think both Horowitz and Raz will drop low.

Really pinch of saltish prediction:
1. Zehava
2. Rozin
3. Golan
4. Salalha
5. Lasky
6. someone new


The only branches with more than 500 members are: Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, Beit Jan, Kfar Kassam, Rahat.
The last three will be all for Bader, Salalha and Abu Siam respectively.

[Hnv1]

Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

Any prediction for the Meretz list primary tomorrow?

From Gossip I gather it seems everyone is in the dark and not sure of the power structure in the membership.
Though it seems that the reds have 4K members (of 18.5K), the Kibbutz several thousands others, and around 5-7K Arab voters.
Because the Arab and Kibbutz voters vote as a bloc they will be the kingmakers (at least regarding the list).

I think we're heading to quite a surprise on the list with Galon winning the leadership by a small margin

[Hnv1]

Meretz primary- Galon beats Golan, no surprise there.
For the list:
1. Galon (leader)
2. MK Mosi Raz (very left-wing, would make a union with Labor hard)
3. MK Michal Rozin (unsurprising, strong MK)
4. MK Ali Salalha (Meretz secures minority representation, druze school director)
5. MK Yair Golan (lost the leadership, but strong chance to get in anyway)
6. MK Gaby Leski (another far left activist)
7. Minister Nitzan Horovitz (not great but not as terrible as I thought he might get with all the rumours of weakness- he could get in with a Norwegian law)- Horovitz actually came 5th in the vote but Lasky passes him because of woman reserved spot
8. Mazen Abu Siam (Bedouin activist and city councillor)
9. Umemaya Hamed (an Arab attorney and Meretz member, Meretz gets an Arab woman in their top 10)
10. Adir Badir (Isawi Farij confidant from Kfar Kassem, him coming this low seems like a blow for Farij)
11. Katie Piasetzky (Meretz city councilor in Bat Yam, pretty strong voice there, nearly got into the Knesset this time)

Lasky got more votes than Horowitz.

I wasn’t far off with my prediction
1. Zehava
2. Rozin
3. Golan
4. Salalha
5. Lasky
6. someone new

I missed how Raz became so popular.

Further analysis of RZ and Meretz later

[Hnv1]

Can someone explain the rise of Otzma Yehudit. How did they go from a minor part of RZP and 1-2% of the vote when running separately to polling at 7 seats on their own?

There were always 5% of the electorate that liked their opinions but:
1. Ben Gvir is good with the (social) media, while former leaders were more awkward.
2. there used to be a bigger crowding out effect in the far right with other parties like Moledet, Herut, Liberman (oh how times have changed) and so on having more appeal. Now most Otzma voters are Sephardic, i.e., people who could vote Shas\Likud and aren't radical settlers so now Ben Gvir has a clean field to swipe them to him.

[Hnv1]

Meretz primary- Galon beats Golan, no surprise there.
For the list:
1. Galon (leader)
2. MK Mosi Raz (very left-wing, would make a union with Labor hard)
3. MK Michal Rozin (unsurprising, strong MK)
4. MK Ali Salalha (Meretz secures minority representation, druze school director)
5. MK Yair Golan (lost the leadership, but strong chance to get in anyway)
6. MK Gaby Leski (another far left activist)
7. Minister Nitzan Horovitz (not great but not as terrible as I thought he might get with all the rumours of weakness- he could get in with a Norwegian law)- Horovitz actually came 5th in the vote but Lasky passes him because of woman reserved spot
8. Mazen Abu Siam (Bedouin activist and city councillor)
9. Umemaya Hamed (an Arab attorney and Meretz member, Meretz gets an Arab woman in their top 10)
10. Adir Badir (Isawi Farij confidant from Kfar Kassem, him coming this low seems like a blow for Farij)
11. Katie Piasetzky (Meretz city councilor in Bat Yam, pretty strong voice there, nearly got into the Knesset this time)

Lasky got more votes than Horowitz.

I wasn’t far off with my prediction
1. Zehava
2. Rozin
3. Golan
4. Salalha
5. Lasky
6. someone new

I missed how Raz became so popular.

Further analysis of RZ and Meretz later

So the two major Ashkenaz parties (well part for UTJ) had primaries yesterday. Both parties' membership are more ideologues so turnout was very high in both (81%).

I'll start with Meretz which I know better. The party's not used to do primaries so the power balance that existed in the party convention was completely broken. Abysmal day for the reds

- Galon won, but not by the 80-20 margin she thought she'd win when she first announced. Golan, however, was a fool. He got 40% of the vote through his bloc in the Kibbutzim but only they voted for him so he finished a miserable 4th. He also failed to move his bloc to vote for the same 4 candidates thus maybe giving him other potential supporters in semi-realistic spots. If Meretz joins a new party he will get a harsh cold shoulder from Galon

- Horowitz as expected dropped heavily, and in the middle of the day he started getting pity votes to save face. Deserved. He was a terrible leader and minister, and was elected leader as a puppet. Good riddance.

- Mossi, the usual black sheep the party mainstream used to hate came first. Quite surprising but it seems that his stock rose during the past year (and as I suspect he also enjoyed a lot of support with the Arab "voters"). Gaby followed with an impressive performance signaling Meretz voters want the party to show more backbone in future coalitions.

- The reds tanked out. Slalaha had his own Druze voters so he managed to float, but the two lads they tried pushing up completely failed. After 16 years the kingmakers do not have a single prince.

-Zaki, Oppenheimer and other nobodies are way behind. good useless gits

- There are 4 Arab representatives in the top 10.

results without gender balance:
1. Galon
2. Raz (44%)
3. Rozin (42%)
4. Slalha (39%)
5. Golan (38.5%)
6. Lasky (31.9%)
7. Horwitz (23.55%)
8 Abu Siam (21.5%)
9. Bader (19.35%)
10. Shechter (19.17%)
11. Oppenheimer (17.9%)
12. Zaki (17.6%)
13. Bichovski (16.6%)
14. Hamed (14.7%)
15. Piaski (13.9%)


About ZR. It's quite remarkable how they managed to upgrade the level of horridness in what was already a horrible party. I would note that neither Soffer or Strock are Smotric's people, so he got a message from voters that he's not an undisputed leader like Bibi. Rotman's place shows that the anti-SC shtick is a twitter phenomenon rather than an actual issue driving the hardcore rightwing voters. They'd happily join Likud in taking down the SC but their are interests are still in the settlements and religious matters.  

[Hnv1]

So basically the settlers who used to vote Bennett/Shaked a couple of years ago are now going to vote for Smotrich, and Mizrahi voters who used to vote Shas/Likud would push Otzma over the threshold. Interesting. But I wonder how much of that virtual Otzma support will actually transfer to actual votes on election day when Bibi goes all in during the last week of the elections. I would imagine this type of voter is extremely open to shifting to Bibi when he is all over the news, says the country is under fire because the left could take over, that only a big Bibi victory could prevent this, that it's extremely close, etc.

I think he's safe running alone. There's no other Johnny big mouth running on the far right and Bibi really has no reason to squeeze voters as he's guaranteed to have the biggest party. Moreover, it seems that Otzma can get Sephardi nonvoters to turn out to vote. Just like the good old days when the junkies in South Tel Aviv voted Khana.