Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?

https://twitter.com/HeTows/status/1588246765580726272
RZ has a little appeal basically everywhere.

Interesting, and depressing. Thanks.

The biggest improvement for them is probably young people if you wanted it a bit more depressing.

That's not a permanent shift to the right. When I was young, teenage boys thought the world of Kach and Gandhi (the Israeli general). In 2009 young voters flocked to the at the time johnny-big-balls Lieberman. When they grew older, they drifted back left.

Conscription does weird things to young Israelies

[Hnv1]

Netanya - 113k votes

Bnei Brak - 87k votes
UTJ - 59.79%
Shas - 30.18%
RZP - 4.43%
Likud - 3.39%
YA - 0.71%
Statist - 0.47%
YB - 0.35%
JH - 0.18%
Labor - 0.16%
Meretz - 0.11%

97.79% for the Likud bloc... it makes Washington DC feel positively competitive! I know it's a Haredi centre, but these types of results are normally reserved for religious communities in small towns, not an 181k one!

Boibrak (Bnei Brak) is essentially a massive Shtetl and not a city.
In fact, most "cities" in Israel and especially those built post-1948 aren't cities but a condensed lump of concrete with no real urbanicity to them. They are mostly immigrants' towns ("development towns") that kept expanding in size

[Hnv1]

Finally, the results for major Arab and other minority municipalities. In the larger Arab towns it's interesting to see which Arab list was stronger than the other.

Did Meretz lose votes compared to the previous election in Arab towns?

They did not lose much vote wise, but as turnout in Arab towns increased by more than 10% the share of the Arab vote they got decreased as a percentage.

They did in fact lose votes. Freg voters (e.g., in Kfar Qassam) did not go to Meretz this time.

[Hnv1]

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.

It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

[Hnv1]

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.

It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

What are they like for someone like me who doesn't know much about Balad at all?

Young, educated, white collar, secular, and generally liberal. A bit more Muslim than Christian. Probably speaks English with his kids rather than Hebrew.

Actually if Meretz had any wits they would have realized a decade ago that they had a huge catchment area here of potential voters (and indeed this demographic voted more Meretz in 2021). A lot of young Arabs go to Israeli universities and for the first time have some freedom from their society and look for political action. Hadash is a fossil to them like Labour is for Jews and they end up in the nationalistic cells of Balad that provide them with a strong sense of identity and security.

Thugs and rioters don't vote, and Balad is historically weak with the large traditional clans.

[Hnv1]

There's a longstanding perversion to analyze voting in Kibbutzim - yours truly had sinned in 2021 - and Haaretz published some nice graphs.



red - Labour; green - Meretz; light blue - Yesh Atti; blue - B&W; greyish - Statist; orange - Meretz+Labour; light brown - Kadima; Yellow - Hatnuah (Livni); brown - Likud

2022 saw the lowest combined vote share for Labour and Meretz (2020 excluded due to the joint run). from over 90% in 1992 to 32% in 2022.

Though it's worth noting that in 1992 Labour was a broad tent and more centrist, and the overall lump of center-left voters remains steady at over 80%, so in a sense, they are simply in line with Israeli society at large.

[Hnv1]

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?

62-58

If Balad had clinched it, then 61-59. 60-60, or 59-61 depends on a lot of factors (like surpluses)

[Hnv1]

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?

62-58

I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.

There would be. A majority of 62 seats

[Hnv1]

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?

62-58

I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.

There would be. A majority of 62 seats

That's the case now. I don't see how, had Meretz made it in, the math would allow RZ losing two seats and NU none.

The case now is a majority of 64 not 62.

[Hnv1]

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.

It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

What are they like for someone like me who doesn't know much about Balad at all?

Middle-class, politically aware, highly educated, often Christian, and usually urban. Basically as far away from the weirdo RZ voters as you can get. The key dynamic in Israeli society right now is that the Arab public is becoming better educated wealthier, and politically more serious, while the Jewish public is being consumed by fanaticism, hatred, growing poverty, etc. Balad is such a threat to political establishment because it is at the spearhead of a major social dynamic that nobody wants to see happen--the Zionist narrative of enlightened Jews making a Middle Eastern country thrive in the middle of Arab darkness is challenged endlessly by urbane Arabs pointing out the basic injustice of occupation and ethnic hatred.

I think both societies polarize quite similarly. the urban elite becomes increasingly secular and globalist while the periphery is descending into increased poverty and crime. some find solacce in religion.
the economic conditions in some segments of the arab population are sinking to new lows while greater Nazereth becomes a thriving metro

[Hnv1]

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.

It saddens me that so few know what Balad voters are actually like, even among my political compatriots in the left.

What are they like for someone like me who doesn't know much about Balad at all?

Middle-class, politically aware, highly educated, often Christian, and usually urban. Basically as far away from the weirdo RZ voters as you can get. The key dynamic in Israeli society right now is that the Arab public is becoming better educated wealthier, and politically more serious, while the Jewish public is being consumed by fanaticism, hatred, growing poverty, etc. Balad is such a threat to political establishment because it is at the spearhead of a major social dynamic that nobody wants to see happen--the Zionist narrative of enlightened Jews making a Middle Eastern country thrive in the middle of Arab darkness is challenged endlessly by urbane Arabs pointing out the basic injustice of occupation and ethnic hatred.

Given that they are basically winning (and have been for a while) why are many Jews so unhappy?

Winning at what? This isn’t the FA Cup. Life in Israel for large segments of the Jewish population is pitiful and miserable. They don’t enjoy the social mobility that Israeli market economy bestowed some (such as I), and they see parts of the Arab population thriving thanks to liberal institutions they despise.