Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Three parties already submitted their lists today- Yesh Atid, Yamina and Kahol Lavan. That means they're running alone and won't get into any joint list (no Sa'ar-Yamina union). I suspect as KL sinks further and further below the threshold they might drop out, but they'll still be on the ballot and burn some votes.

Yesh Atid's list is pretty much all the MKs Lapid had left + party activists. The main new faces are two women- KL refugee Merav Cohen and former Kulanu Merav Ben Ari (biggest potential for an Orly Levy replay in 2021- she started off by attacking the Arab on Labour's 7th spot for not being Zionist enough and representing left wing positions).

Lapid clearly tried to fix this, but it's still a very man-heavy list. #2 is Orly Barbivai, Yesh Atid MK and the first woman major general, and there are 3 women in the top 5 (Barbivai + MK Karin Elharar + Merav Cohen, Ben Ari is 9th), but these are the only 4 women in the top 15. 4 no name women crowd places 17-20- the good old trick of "we have equal representation!" but most women are in the periphery of realistic spots (famously employed by Yamina in round 3). The first non Jew is in the 26th spot. 2 gays and 2 Russian speakers in the top 15.

Yamina's list seems like a recruiting failure. The first four are alright- Bennet and Shaked, the Mayor of Sderot and Matan Kahane, a fairly visible MK. The rest are a mix of clowns, nobodies and Jewish Home refugees (for some 2 or 3 of the categories apply). A healthy dose of homophobia from the 5th place, some religious zionist education figure.

KL has Pnina Tamano Shata second, making her the highest ranking black woman in a party polling above the threshold ever to my knowledge, but it's a list of mostly center figures who stuck with Gantz and I don't see them passing.

In other news, Sa'ar got an imho great recruit in Ofer Berkovich, leader of the centrist Jerusalem Hitorerut Party which basically represents the "pluralist" anti-Haredi coalition there. Pretty major figure in Jerusalem who almost became Mayor, a young face, but I don't see a lot of fanfare rn. I wonder if Sa'ar will keep slipping further and further at this pace.

YA at least fielded a list with a decent amount of ministerial material. Yamina looks depleted from 4th down, Bennett just doesn't get that this isn't a presidential system no matter how much Bibi acts as if it does.

Ok catch for Saar, I don't think it will move voters from the right but it's the internal game against Lapid.

*I find it weird to call PTS a "black woman", well she is of course Ethiopian but we don't use this term in Hebrew and I wouldn't want to import it here

[Hnv1]

Huldai is out as well.

The far-right union is almost complete (I still think they won't make the threshold).

So currently it looks as if Zalicha will be the biggest one under the threshold from the centre left

[Hnv1]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Orly Levy is going to be listed as number 26 in Likud. And she's basically Gesher's only member and voter.

[Hnv1]

Is Gesher just done for at this point? Seems like they aren't going to reach the threshold on their own and it doesn't seem like they're going to join with another party.

Gesher is just Orly Levy. She's supposed to get some spot on Likud's list

Why would Likud do that?  The people that voted for her list last election would not vote Likud.  Would they not want her to run by herself and split the anti-Likud vote ?

To show future defectors they won’t be left to the dogs

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

Didn't they do the same with Eli Ben Dahan during the "United Right Wing Parties" cycle?

Yes, they use straw parties and do it as a merger (sadly I and Levin studied Administrative Law under the same professor, he nows the schtik). I think it's worthy of some judicial review as it's clearly an abuse of the electoral system and is supposed to bypass the threshold law.

The SC rejected the appeal on Ben-Dahan on some procedural ground back then if I recall right.

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

Spot 28 is borderline unconstitutional. If this were corporations it would be criminal

Didn't they do the same with Eli Ben Dahan during the "United Right Wing Parties" cycle?

Yes, they use straw parties and do it as a merger (sadly I and Levin studied Administrative Law under the same professor, he nows the schtik). I think it's worthy of some judicial review as it's clearly an abuse of the electoral system and is supposed to bypass the threshold law.

The SC rejected the appeal on Ben-Dahan on some procedural ground back then if I recall right.

What is the problem? There seem to be multiple instances where independent candidates and candidates from minor parties are/were running on other lists. As far as I know Huldai and Nissenkorn were formally Labor members, too?

Is it the "backup" idea that is questionable, i.e. if you fail the threshold, you still get a representative? Is it that formally lists have to be the union of parties, and no party should be in two lists?

Multitude of problems:
- firstly each list is supposed to be representative of a party or a union of parties. Here we have a person who is quite known as being a member of a different party (NU) running and getting in through votes given to a different list (Likud) while his list is competing. In abstract political theory we have a problem here. If voters wanted NU to get another MK they should vote for them.
- it is a form of political bribery to facilitate mergers in other parties.  Political scalping of the lowest order where the currency is votes.
- the use of fake Skelton parties is vulgar. It’s a non bona fide use of the freedom of association to allow the bypass the threshold laws. It’s kinda like CDU forming two parties one for the regional races and one for the national votes to get extra seats. It’s a manipulation of the electoral system
- it will encourage further political racketeering in the future.

I think it will be hilarious if Smotric fails to pass the threshold and Sofer gets in

[Hnv1]

Likud reserved spots:
10. Galit Distel (author and Bibi media puppet, started off with the quote "I'm thr people")
26. Orly Levy
28. Ofir Sofer, Smotrich representative
36. Yair Gabay, obscure figure who appealed for Likud primaries and cancelled the appeal after, we can see now, Bibi bribed him
39. Nail Zoabi, Arab former school director
40. Boris Applechuck, pro Bibi protestor

What's a reserved spot?

Spots that the party leader can man and aren't pick by the members in primaries (that didn't happen for two years now...).

i.e., spots Bibi fills to please some people, put in hard loyalists, and push back as far as he can figures like Ayoub Kara because jesus wept he's an embarrassment

[Hnv1]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.

[Hnv1]

At this stage what is Netanyahu/Likud path forward to a majority? I assume Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yamina+RZP ?  If B&W or Ra'am falls below the threshold it seems that this combination should get a majority.

It’s pretty simple. If Likud+Haredi+Smotric+Yamina is >= 61 that’s going to be the government and Bennett will squeeze Bibi out to the max. If there’s a majority of 61 for the anti Bibi without JL and with Yamina, Bennett will sweat for weeks before agreeing to join a Saar government. If we get a scenario with no overall majority with the joint list we’ll be heading to another election.
With all the personal animosity, I do think Bennett prefers the first option. Shaked defiantly does.

Most polls have had that alliance in the high 50s, i'm not too sure if there'll be an overperformance though cause whenever Likud exceeds expectations then it's always at the expense of other right wing parties, no?

Anyways, how would the Joint List even fit into the equation? Especially if they truly do get 10 seats or less.

They don't, their role is at best passive this time, preventing the Bibi bloc with Yamina from getting to 61 seats.

Ra'am is going to edge the threshold either above it or under it. if it's under Likud will get 1-2 additional seats

[Hnv1]

39 lists registered for this election cycle, an increase of 9 from 2020 (though that was a low compared to earlier cycles).

2020 also had no list close to the threshold. Otzma spoiled 0.42% of the voters, and a minor libertarian party spoiled another 0.08%. 2019 saw a huge number of over 8% of the votes going to parties below the threshold with The New Right, Zehut, and Gesher the biggest burners.

This time B&W, the Religious Zios, and Ra'am will be all around the threshold. part for them I expect Zalicha to burn about 1% if he goes on to the end. Am Shalem (modern Haredi), Democratic party (radical direct democracy\Balfour protestors), and Ma'an (some inclusionist arab party) could all burn between 0.1%-0.5% of the votes

[Hnv1]

Who is still voting for B&W in sizable enough numbers for them to feasibly be above the threshold? After Gantz’s total humiliation it’s hard to believe he can make it over.

Professional army men and veterans, some super boring centrists who like generals, people with no strong opinion on anything.

There’s a dispute on the veterans’ pensions atm, Gantz can be counted to look after that

[Hnv1]

Well, Bibi's trial resumed today.

It’s going to take at least 2 years if not more (discounting the appeal). Today and the next sessions would be about preliminary matters and defence claims. The AG’s tenure is done in 2022, Bibi will be desperate to get the next one be more favourable. An AG can freeze a trial according to our criminal procedure, the trial will never resume in that case...I think Bibi wants to go down that route, much more slick and less eye poking than personal legislation

[Hnv1]

What a boring cycle. Some old gits complaining about Labour become "radical left".

Bless the lord we now have MK Nissim Vaturi on twitter. A serious contender for dumbest Likud MK ever, and there's a long and (un)impressive list of contenders there.

[Hnv1]

The polling seems to indicate there’s a non-zero chance Meretz slip below the threshold courtesy of Zalekha.

One can only hope (I was a member for most of my adult life).

My father and sister both moved ship to Labour, and I drifted to the JL. The Meretz base is vanishing

[Hnv1]

https://m.maariv.co.il/amp/elections-2021/Article-822043?__twitter_impression=true
20 Israeli Arab HaAvodah "activists" publicly drop out of the party - basically saying that it's too Tel Aviv for them. Wondering if any of you know the inside baseball here.

They are joined by some old farts (mainly Kibbutzniks) who defect to Gantz as he's the "old Mapai". Well they're not wrong but their weight is marginal. In 2021 Israel, all Kibbutzim combined equal to around 2 seats.

[Hnv1]

B&W are going full 'New Labour' campaign claiming they're the new Labour party as they're headed by a dimwit general, some farmers, and class C politicians. I think Peretz is assisting as my 91 years old great aunt who's a Labour member (it takes her time to remember) got a bombardment of text messages telling her to "come home".

Things are slightly awkward for Meretz atm.

[Hnv1]

B&W are going full 'New Labour' campaign claiming they're the new Labour party as they're headed by a dimwit general, some farmers, and class C politicians. I think Peretz is assisting as my 91 years old great aunt who's a Labour member (it takes her time to remember) got a bombardment of text messages telling her to "come home".

Things are slightly awkward for Meretz atm.

How many votes do B&W stand to lose (and gain) from this gambit?

In cardinal figures not much, but it could be the tip to take them over the edge to the threshold (and keep Labour on 5-6 seats)

[Hnv1]

So things could end up with Meretz merging into Labour?

(rather than, as seemed much likelier pretty recently, the other way around)

no. At least not until March 24th, once the lists are submitted they can't be changed until election day. either Meretz runs and passes the threshold or falls below it costing the bloc 2-3 seats. Either way reckless behavior by Horowitz and the Red Guard.

I'm not sure Michaeli would want to merge with them as a single entity. IF the party doesn't pass the threshold I see it just splintering to bits. If it does but really tightly I can see Horowitz and Golan taking whatever's left and joining Labour, with Zandberg\Raz\Laski trying to start the new "Jewish-Arab" party.

[Hnv1]

I would point that it seems that if no government is formed and we go to a fifth election Gantz would still become PM in November. Or at least some scholars think so. needless to say, there's not much case law or comparative law into a rotation duumvirate government...As I read the law, I find problems with this interpretation (and also the desirability of this outcome), but others think it does follow from section 30 of the basic law regarding the continuity of government.

[Hnv1]

Pretty big story out today: Likud (the party, not the government) had secret talks with the Palestinian Authority to get Fatah to support them in the election through activism with Israeli Arabs or at least cease support for the Joint List. Likud denied this with one of their usual spins (LAPID LAPID LAPID), but it rings hollow because Deputy Minister Patin Mula, the Likud's representative in these talks, basically confirmed this by saying "there are all kinds of talks" and adding that the "JL doesn't represent the Palestinians, understand from it what you will". This is what happens when your entire backbench is built of idiots.

I thought this was an indicator that we already knew Netanyahu and Abbas were talking about the election.

Ra’am are closer to Hamas, traditionally the mouth of the PA in Israel was Tibi. Hadash also supported the PA though they side with the left wing factions in the PLO. Balad were traditionally hostile to the PA.
But things are getting weird recently. So who knows, it will not surprise me if Abbas sniffed at the option in case he loses his own elections in May and has Israel intervene.

[Hnv1]

I’m going to chair a precinct this year for the first time since 2009. From what I saw at the election committee it’s going to be chaos on the ground

[Hnv1]

Why is Israeli politics such a disaster? Has it always been this much of a trainwreck or has it only been like this since the collapse of the left and Bibi cultivating a sycophantic personality cult to dominate over a multifractured sociopolitical ecosystem?

It was always opportunistic and petty. There was more constitutional stability and the median ML was less ignorant though. And more substance.

The causes are hotly debated. That is one strand of explanation, I think it’s missing the key point of demographic changes

[Hnv1]

Two polls today had Meretz quite far from the threshold...it’s happening!

[Hnv1]

Interesting change this time, the Haredi parties are de facto a part of the right for over 15 years, and more comfortable with it since 77. But this is the first time both Shas and UTJ identify as right wing by themselves. UTJ even have a poster talking about Territorial Integrity. It was long in the making as the Haredi electorate is right wing for three decades now, and now we can forget about them being potential partners in any centrist moderate coalition.
**it seems UTJ was pushed into this move as it seems Smotric is biting into their electorate. Interesting process in the fringes of the Haredi and Orthodox worlds. Yachad was the first tryout in the political field.

Anyway Yamina are saying there won’t be a fifth round, so of its 61 for Bibi bloc and Yamina they’re in, otherwise they’re with the rest.
YB and labour set to recommend Lapid as PM. B&W to recommend Saar, and I think Saar and Bennett will recommend the one of them who has more seats.