Israel General Discussion: The Return of the Rotation Government

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/thousands-return-streets-israel-urging-netanyahu-resign-200816021834656.html

Thousands of demonstrators have returned to the streets of Jerusalem calling for the resignation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over allegations of corruption and his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Protesters were seen clashing with police late into the night on Saturday and early on Sunday outside the residence of the embattled prime minister, who had recently clinched a historic diplomatic deal with the United Arab Emirates.

Images from news agencies and social media showed several demonstrators being dragged by police as anti-Netanyahu protests continued for the eighth week.

According to reports, some of the protesters had also attempted to march toward the residence of Israeli President Reuven Rivlin but were prevented by police.

I guess making peace with the United Arab Emirates wasn't popular with the Israeli public?

It was. But it’s not a get out of jail card. It was more popular with the opposition than his base

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Monday is the deadline for a budget deal to pass, and KL and Likud can't seem to reach one. Who's ready for election #4?

Bibi is really grasping here to buy time. I suppose Bennett will call a press conference on Tuesday if that happens and ash the bloc for good.

According to current polling Yamina-YA-KL-YB can swear in a minority government with the outside support or abstention Meretz. If that doesn’t happen Bibi will spin infinite elections until the one slip that allows him to dismiss the AG.

Anyhow, Rivlin will not grant him the mandate without a majority of 61 and would rather resign. That would be...interesting as his replacement is Speaker Levin that has other constitutional roles in the formation of a government, and he’s also a partisan hack.

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Most of Yamina came outright and said they will recommend Bennet to the president next election cycle. This demolishes the “bloc” and might even allow for some bizarre center-right coalition.

In this scenario...take a deep breath, Bibi might let the rotation happen and have Gantz as a lame duck PM than crown Bennett

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Ofer Shelah challenges Yair Lapid to open primaries to head YA. It’s about time. Would vote for him in a heartbeat

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Yesh Atid primaries are on in 2021.

not final, and the format is debatable. as no one in their right mind thinks Bibi will have the rotation, 2021 genera elections are more than likely and with them no primary

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/politics/israel-bahrain-trump/index.html

President Donald Trump said Friday that Israel and Bahrain have agreed to the "establishment of full diplomatic relations," marking the second time in a month an Arab Gulf nation has announced new ties with the Jewish state and further reshaping alliances in the Middle East.

Unveiling the new agreement from the Oval Office, Trump cast the move as a step toward peace in the region. He has worked to broker accords between Arab nations and Israel that he hopes will lead to a broader peace deal.

"Another HISTORIC breakthrough today!" Trump tweeted.

The announcement came less than a week ahead of a White House signing ceremony between Israel and the United Arab Emirates that will bring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Emirati officials to Washington.

As a condition of that agreement, Netanyahu agreed to shelve plans for now to annex sections of the West Bank. He has not ruled out resuming the annexation in the future.

Bahrain's foreign minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khallaf will join Israel and the UAE for the signing ceremony currently scheduled for next Tuesday, according to the statement from Trump.

Who does this help more, Trump, Netanyahu, or Bahrain?

All of the above. Though for the former two a short term gain.

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Is it true Israel is going into full lockdown again? Like shut stores and everything?

Yes. The holiday season where secular people attend synagogues en masse is too big of a risk

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So basically if Trump gets a second term, we'll get to the point where all of the Gulf States have normalized relations with Israel and then, together, they will drag us into war with Iran.

Great job, everyone who insists that Hillary and Biden are bloodthirsty warmongers and there is "literally no difference between the two parties."

The Gulf micro states have no desire for war with Iran. You can relax on that front, but Israel will curb
Iranian aggression in the gulf for them.

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Are the Haredi observing the lockdown? Last I heard, Bibi is trying to cut a deal so they dont have to, though its not clear they will even without such a deal.

From my observations, yes, and most adhered to mask-wearing and other measures from the start (don't forget they lost a lot of people in NY and knew what was coming). It's only a faction of Hassidic Jews and some strict lithuanians that caused problems.

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/2/israeli-tourism-minister-resigns-to-protest-netanyahu

Israel’s tourism minister has resigned from the fractious government, saying he does not have an “ounce of trust” in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accusing him of putting his personal and legal issues ahead of the response to the COVID-19 crisis.

Asaf Zamir is a member of the centrist Blue and White party, which battled Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud in three stalemated elections in under a year before forming an emergency government with it in May to combat the pandemic.

Israel went into a second nationwide lockdown last month and is now grappling with one of the worst outbreaks in the world on a per capita basis. The emergency government has been roiled by infighting and has faced widespread criticism over its confusing and often contradictory response to the pandemic.

“I can no longer sit in a government in which I don’t have an ounce of trust in the person at its head,” Zamir tweeted.

“I have unfortunately determined that the coronavirus crisis and its terrible impact is at best in second place in the list of priorities of the prime minister. Personal and legal considerations are at the top of Netanyahu’s priorities.”

Is this the end of the road for the coalition government?

Not yet, but a budget needs to pass in December 24th. No one is working on it and it takes time. Gantz announced B&W will start with selecting a new AG. Can’t see it happening. I assume it will die soon

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Went to a demonstration here yesterday. A leftist neighbourhood, and then I went to my sister’s area to the demonstration (radical left bastion of Haifa). Police were mainly overwhelmed with low numbers so stood by. The scenes from Tel Aviv are disturbing. The fabric of Israeli society is tearing, more than the 90’s or the point in the 80’s where civil war looked around the corner.

If this is the last hoorah than be it. I’ll join the youth at any violent protest if needed be. “It is our moral obligation to break unjust laws”.

[Hnv1]

Went to a demonstration here yesterday. A leftist neighbourhood, and then I went to my sister’s area to the demonstration (radical left bastion of Haifa). Police were mainly overwhelmed with low numbers so stood by. The scenes from Tel Aviv are disturbing. The fabric of Israeli society is tearing, more than the 90’s or the point in the 80’s where civil war looked around the corner.

If this is the last hoorah than be it. I’ll join the youth at any violent protest if needed be. “It is our moral obligation to break unjust laws”.

Wait, when was this? 1982?

81 was a dirty campaign, the dirtiest until 2015. Until 1985 things were dodgy, Lebanon war and polarisation were massive. Both big parties had 75% of the house. After the rotation government settled in things cooled off for a bit.

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If there is a civil war, how will it go as Israel has nukes?

The IDF will probably sit idle, a civil war will probably be mainly street clashes and clashes with the police. The age of tanks in the streets is over I think.

[Hnv1]

Went to a demonstration here yesterday. A leftist neighbourhood, and then I went to my sister’s area to the demonstration (radical left bastion of Haifa). Police were mainly overwhelmed with low numbers so stood by. The scenes from Tel Aviv are disturbing. The fabric of Israeli society is tearing, more than the 90’s or the point in the 80’s where civil war looked around the corner.

If this is the last hoorah than be it. I’ll join the youth at any violent protest if needed be. “It is our moral obligation to break unjust laws”.

Wait, when was this? 1982?

81 was a dirty campaign, the dirtiest until 2015. Until 1985 things were dodgy, Lebanon war and polarisation were massive. Both big parties had 75% of the house. After the rotation government settled in things cooled off for a bit.

I don't suppose the rampant inflation around that time would have helped either.

No, neither did the banking stocks crisis that nearly bankrupted half the country. But the main issues were on foreign policy and demographic struggle between Ashkenazi and Sephardi Jews.

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One reason why international reporting of Israeli politics is so bad these days is the fact that most of the people filing the copy on it cut their teeth back when it was dominated by those two big hyper-ideological blocks*, and have failed to adjust to everything that has changed since the end of that period.

_{*Average age of international Middle East reporters and correspondents is now amongst the oldest in journalism.}

Labor Zionism vs Revisionist Zionism? Those are pretty much dead ideologies at this point.

Yet Likud still exists? How has it evolved since then?

Is this question genuine or a joke? Because I’m not sure if I should answer it.

Labour v Revisionist is dead yes, but the new divides build on the old ones so it’s in the background, same as the 80’s-90’s are in the background of the new divide emerging now between conservative and liberal camps.

[Hnv1]

One reason why international reporting of Israeli politics is so bad these days is the fact that most of the people filing the copy on it cut their teeth back when it was dominated by those two big hyper-ideological blocks*, and have failed to adjust to everything that has changed since the end of that period.

_{*Average age of international Middle East reporters and correspondents is now amongst the oldest in journalism.}

Labor Zionism vs Revisionist Zionism? Those are pretty much dead ideologies at this point.

Yet Likud still exists? How has it evolved since then?

Is this question genuine or a joke? Because I’m not sure if I should answer it.

Labour v Revisionist is dead yes, but the new divides build on the old ones so it’s in the background, same as the 80’s-90’s are in the background of the new divide emerging now between conservative and liberal camps.

Yeah what kaoras said : how come Likud survived but Labour didn't.

Mmm. Likud morphed into a big party that still gave identity to large segments in society. Labour׳s socialist tradition had very little pull on its now upper middle class voters. Plus Likud is a party of governance a lot of people depend on them staying in power. Lastly, Labour had really bad leaders for most of the time and the damage done by the Second Intifada was heavy, there’s too big a segment of potential supporters who just don’t like the leftist tag.

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I have a question about this fur trade ban.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54418334

What exactly is the point, if the Ultra-Orthodox are granted an exemption? Aren't they the number one consumers of fur by far? I doubt there was a massive trade in, like, mink coats before. Considering it's, you know, Israel, where heavy winter attire isn't exactly in demand.

Virtue signal. No actual point but look enlightened

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https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1313526353610899457

Even with Yamina likely being overhyped, this poll is something else.

The possibility of a Yamina YA YB BW government with Meretz supporting from the outside is tenable. But an election cycle is far away and Yamina won’t hold this figures under heavy crossfire campaign.
Everyone just need to wait and let Bibi destroy himself with the economic crisis, his trial, and on going protests. You can see the strain on him already, and he will be his own downfall ultimately

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1313526353610899457

Even with Yamina likely being overhyped, this poll is something else.

The possibility of a Yamina YA YB BW government with Meretz supporting from the outside is tenable. But an election cycle is far away and Yamina won’t hold this figures under heavy crossfire campaign.
Everyone just need to wait and let Bibi destroy himself with the economic crisis, his trial, and on going protests. You can see the strain on him already, and he will be his own downfall ultimately

You'll have to give a very good explanation why Meretz would support any government with a diametrically opposing party like Yamina in it and why, with a result like above, the latter wouldn't just ram through annexation with the help of an almost equally enthusiastic Likud and the ultra-orthodox (with no regard for the recent normalization deals).

At most Meretz can abstain, if they vote down a government getting Bibi out the party is finished for good.

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Is the Blue and White-Labor merger still going ahead?

So it seems. Labour is behind ed at this point. Maybe if Michaeli takes over and pull a different merger with a new Holdai party (who’s Labour himself). But I can’t see them running alone (ditto to Meretz so the polls are misleading).


** I believe the threshold will be lowered towards the next election and that might change the picture for Meretz but not for Labour

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Here's an updated version of something I did back last September. Right click for a bigger version.

All Knesset elections, from 1949 to 2020.

Instead of a chaotic party-by-party mess, I placed every list that won seats into one of seven categories:

Then I grouped those seven categories into three big blocks:

This is how I classified each party. Note that I'm leaving out some of the "win a single seat and vanish" outfits that were so common in the 70s and 80s, but I classified those too.

Arabs: Satellite lists, Hadash*, United Arab List, Progressive List for Peace, Balad, Ra'am, Joint List, Ta'al
Far-left: Mapam, Maki, Rakah, Ratz, Hadash*, Meretz
Left: Mapai, Ahdut HaAvoda, Alignment, Rafi, Labor, One Israel, Zionist Union, Gesher, Democratic Camp*, Labor-Gesher(-Meretz)*
Centre: General Zionists, Yemenite Association, Progressive Party, Libralit, Ind. Liberals, National List, Dash, Free Centre, Telem, Shinui, Third Way, Kadima, Gil, Yesh Atid, Hatnuah, Kahol Lavan
Right: Herut, Gahal, Likud, Tzomet, Yisrael Beitenu, Yisrael BaAliyah, Kulanu
Religious: United Religious Front, Sephardim & Oriental Communities, (Poalei) Aguadat Yisrael, Shas, Degel HaTorah, UTJ
National Religious: Hapoel HaMizrachi, Tehiya, Tami, Kach, National Union, Jewish Home, URWP, Yamina

* Hadash is placed as far-left before 1992; in every election since then, their caucus was majority Arab and that's how I classified them. Meretz was grandfathered into far-left as late as April 2019, but I considered them just left afterwards, the alliance with Ehud Barak et al being the dividing point.

There were minor far left parties you left out (Uri Avneri, Sheli Camp). The blocs image is also a bit misleading as the national religious were the closest ally to Labour up to the 80’s. Also for historical accuracy the progressive party can be classic as either left or centre, it was after all a “non socialist workers party”

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-pushes-no-confidence-vote-against-netanyahu-gantz-says-he-wont-back-it/

Lmao Gantz is f'ing weak.

Meanwhile Bennett and some of the JL voted for (constructive no confidence vote) which made Likud panic screens light up. In general in the past week Likud seem to be lowering the flames and making sounds like they will bring a budget. I assume Bibi will try to postpone it the farthest he can to keep some manoeuvre space. But some claim he might let Gantz become PM knowing he can kneecap him at any moment as a lame duck.

We’ll see

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Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

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Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

Gonna be wild when he pulls a Sharon and endorses the two state solution in 2030.

The Palestinian issue is no longer an electoral issue in Israel, that’s why Bennett can pick up votes to the left of Likud. We are now living through the second political realignment in Israel leading to the third party system.

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Bennett breaking to the centre saying he supports equal rights to LGBT. I can only deduce he’ll shed Smotric soon. Risky gamble by him nonetheless

Gonna be wild when he pulls a Sharon and endorses the two state solution in 2030.

The Palestinian issue is no longer an electoral issue in Israel, that’s why Bennett can pick up votes to the left of Likud. We are now living through the second political realignment in Israel leading to the third party system.

Which will consist of what, basically?

Who knows. I assume realignment on liberal-conservative lines