Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

This campaign as you said is to bite in the Meretz flank. Haredi, Ethiopian, or Russian voters are going to move a inch towards the JL.

There’s a radical left group called Standing together with a similar campaign of class-uniting-identity politics stand. It didn’t work for them and it won’t work in the future.

[Hnv1]

Joint List has put big flashy billboards in Yiddish in Bnei Barak ("Your voice against forced enlistment') and in Amharic in Petah Tikvah ("Your voice against police harrassment"). I'm pretty sure these are more about getting the votes of ex-Meretz voters than Chassidish or Ethiopian voters, but I'm interested to know what the Israeli posters here think of it. Have y'all noticed an increased interest in the Joint List among Jewish  folks? Do you think this multi-lingual campaigning will pay off short term (more votes) or long term (building a base, expanding Hadash's reach?)...

I do wonder, what would be a The Jewish Home-Joint List voter?

I do know a NU-JL voter, though not in successive elections. A radical settler from the hills turned left libertarian. Though still very religious.

[Hnv1]

Which parties do Ethiopian Jews generally favour?

Likud in first, followed by BW and then Shas.

Is this because of any specific issues, or the same kinds of reasons as Likud does better with Mizrahis?

They also attribute bringing them here to Shamir, and are slightly more religious than the average Israeli

[Hnv1]

Likud is actually trying to get Arab support this time, spending actual resources there, and Bibi did an interview with an Arabic website.

Why in the world would any Arab support Likud and why does Bibi think that Arabs could support Likud.

Surprise as you may be there are Arab likud voters, and not only Druze

[Hnv1]

I feel like there won't be a 4th round. either B&W-Gantz-LGM minority government with half the JL voting for and Lieberman fuming but staying in. or Liebermen joining the right again.

as long as the right wing bloc don't get 61 on their own we're safe.

I'll put my official prediction on Sunday, but for now:
B&W 35
Likud 34
JL 12
LGM 9
Shas 8
UTJ 8
YB 7
Right 7

centre-left-arab: 56
B&W-YB-LGM: 51
Harzburg front: 57

[Hnv1]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

LOL. You obviously hadn’t met a genuine Meretz activists for years. They’ll seat with Shas no problem whatsoever

[Hnv1]

Lieberman today: I won't sit in a government supported by the abstentions of the Joint List. Also Lieberman today: we'll create a government without Netanyahu, no more unity.

I know Shas are on the edge of the seat because as long as there's no government the Yeshiva budget is being autmoatically reduce. but I don't see how these two propositions add up? unless some Ashkenazi forms a government?

* of course this sort of government is possible if B&W+LMG+Yb>Right Bloc which is unlikely.

Meretz can’t sit with Shas as they are unable to compromise on religion and state issues. It’s basically their priority as a party.

LOL. You obviously hadn’t met a genuine Meretz activists for years. They’ll seat with Shas no problem whatsoever

Lol Shulamit Aloni’s party? Seriously?

Shula was booted out by Sarid to allow the coalition with Shas. Then yes definitely that party

[Hnv1]

After voting Balad, then JL, I think I'm going to vote B&W this time (of strict utilitarian grounds). I may be the only Balad-B&W voter out there.

[Hnv1]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

[Hnv1]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

The problem this election is that, as predicted, the polling has been sparse and taken up by a significant chunk of simply bad polls, like Direct polls. It's obviously an outlier, but there aren't a bunch of polls to contradict it.

In any case, turnout doesn't help polling. It helps on election day. We won't know who is focused on turnout until Monday night.

polling changed, since round 1 last year polls now also ask you the liklihood that you would actually vote, and they changed the models accordingly.

[Hnv1]

The direct polls of today shows the right bloc on 60, as it seems the Likud campaign on turnout is changing the picture.

I did warn you lot, I hear quite a lot of rumble from the Likud strongholds, Likud are absolutely focused on turnout, they hardly care for winning the centre ground anymore. expect a possible upset

The problem this election is that, as predicted, the polling has been sparse and taken up by a significant chunk of simply bad polls, like Direct polls. It's obviously an outlier, but there aren't a bunch of polls to contradict it.

In any case, turnout doesn't help polling. It helps on election day. We won't know who is focused on turnout until Monday night.

polling changed, since round 1 last year polls now also ask you the liklihood that you would actually vote, and they changed the models accordingly.

I mean, walk into a nail salon in Ashdod and do a poll and you'd think Bibi was going to get 120 seats. The Likud base is very devout, but less broad than Netanyahu needs for a majority. Polls are sensitive to voter enthusiasm, and sometimes mistake that for actual vote totals. There are a lot of liberals in Tel Aviv who are so disappointed in Gantz that they barely even care to show up. But they are going to show up (and if I'm wrong then Bibi geta close to a majority). Outside of Kfar Saba there aren't passionate KL voters like there are Likud voters. But there are more of them. If they still show up as they did in September then Bibi won't get close to 61.

My brother in law does insurance for a lot of small likud councils in the north. They're galvinized, everyone is getting an SMS once a day and a phone call every 3-4 days. they have a mssive array of transporation planned for election day. 

our media isn't familiar with this places, they go to a random spot and Ashdod and film, but that means nothing.

[Hnv1]

After voting Balad, then JL, I think I'm going to vote B&W this time (of strict utilitarian grounds). I may be the only Balad-B&W voter out there.

Please tell me the Balad vote was a protest vote or something

Any vote for me would be a protest vote atm. there's no party I feel is representative for me

[Hnv1]

Final prediction

Likud 35
B&W 34
JL 13
LGM 9
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Yamina 7
YB 6

[Hnv1]

So a recording came out of a known Rabbi promising Netanyahu to get dirt on Gantz out of the aforementioned advisor. Additionally, what SHOULD be the Israeli Watergate came out recently- a cyber company created right before the April election paid for spying on Gantz to get dirt of him, with the mediator being an attorney close to Netanyahu and others close to the PM involved.

It could hamper Likud's momentum right before election, but then again, it could change nothing too.

Likud voters don’t give two tosses on that, they know Bibi is a liar and a crook and that’s why they like him. They think this is part of the reasons is a diplomatic mastermind and whatever. You’re looking for decency where there is none

[Hnv1]

Just voted, it wasn’t as packed as September and this is a heavy Gantz area...

Stood there for two minutes with JL and B&W before I decided

[Hnv1]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

[Hnv1]

27.6% turnout by 12:00, up from 26.8% in September and 24.8% in April.

I’m hearing reports that both Arab and likud turnout on the rise. They might cancel each other.


My friend in corona isolation went on to vote in their special box. Said there’s a 3 hours line there and many went back home

[Hnv1]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

[Hnv1]

According to Jack Khoury the Arab vote stands at 15%. No clue if that's as of 10 or as of 12, when he reported that figure. In any case if the 12pm Arab turnout is between 15 and 20 percent that would be a fairly solid indicator of a good night for the Joint List--assuming, of course, that overall turnout remains less than 23 or 24 percent as of 12.

The 15% figure is indeed from a count as of 10-11am. If true that would, of course, be a very strong early number.

That would put them higher than average Jewish areas and on course to 16 seats. Highly doubt it

No, it would be more like 18 or 19 mandates. But I agree that it likely is not quite so high. In any case 16 mandates is totally realistic right now.

It’s proportional, I’m putting it on 16 because Likud turnout is also on the rise it seems. B&W might be in for a tough night I feel

It's entirely too hard and too early to know anything. Until actual numbers start to get reported from Beersheva, Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, etc., it's hard to know anything. I only saw that Haifa was at like 14%, which would (maybe) be bad for Blue amd White. But who knows. Anecdotal reports are usually wrong.

Low turnout in Haifa is bad for YB, the Carmel is business as usual

[Hnv1]

I think turnout surge will curve down towards the last ours. Final turnout at around 71%

[Hnv1]

Other Arab locales...

Kfar Kassem 23%
Kfar Khanna 20%

So not everywhere is showing outstanding turnout. But the major Arab population centers definitely are. I would love to see Jaffa, given how unbelievably low turnout usually is there.

Kfar Qassam is idiosyncratic as Freg told his family not to go out and vote. They usually have high turnout.

[Hnv1]

Fellow Israelis correct me, but is it just me seeing much less panic from everyone- Likud, KL, LGM, Yamina, Haredim etc?

Could be either because they know no one is going to buy it or everyone already knows there’s a deadlock in bound

[Hnv1]

2.7% increase. I’ll refine my prediction Likud 35 B&W 32 JL 16

[Hnv1]

47% turnout by 16:00, up from 44.3% in September and 42.8% in April.

Yet similar to 2013 which ended up with 67%. The 18:00 will be the crucial ones