Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

Gadi ybarkan may defect from B&W to Likud for the promise of the 20th spot. Likud lost some Ethiopian voters to B&W in September and desperate Bibi is trying to turn the tide.

This defection is straight of the late 80's, Ybarkan called likue a party without value and said Ethiopians can't be baught less than a month ago.

That seems like a dumb move. Hopefully it's just rumours.
Edit: Gantz removed him from the list. Big mistake imo, he was a sympathetic figure and KL's vote share with Ethiopians grew substantially last time.

Tamano-Shato is a bigger figure with Ethiopians and I assume some like Shlomo Mola\Avi Yalau will be placed instead of him by tonight

[Hnv1]

Peretz betrayed Ben Gvir. Otzma running alone. The religious right led by Bennet, but I actually think it was a bad move for the bloc

Speaking of Otzma where’s David? He was out far-right representative here and vanished

[Hnv1]

So Bennett breaking off to form his own party back in December 2018, after a year of wrangling, two general elections, and several internal elections in several parties, led to...absolutely no change whatsoever. Got it.

Big change. Now he controls the party and the old Mafdal have no say.

[Hnv1]

It's official: Bennet-Peretz-Smotrich-Shaked running together. Beb Gvir running alone. Expect some negativity between Otzma and the rest of the right.

I doubt Bibi will try to drag Otzmah over the threshold like last time. They'll probably try to bury them early, which may massively blow up in their faces.

Actually the Otzma major demographics: Chabbad and poor Sephardi are closest to likud than NU and such. Bibi has only to gain for going hard on them

[Hnv1]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

[Hnv1]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

Labor has a list up to 120, that's news to me.

all the big parties have a list of 120, once every party fielded 120 candidates, less common nowadays

[Hnv1]

Peretz's collection of failed moves led to Jewish Home being the weakest part of the union with just one realistic spot on the combined list.

Which means basically the death of Mafdal.

The Labour-Meretz list have Ruth Dayan (aged 102) the wife of, and Yael Dayan (the daughter of) in places 107-108. one represents Meretz the other Labour. The also have Yossi Beilin from Meretz and his son Gil from Labour. this is truly a family reunion. I was mainly shocked Ruth was still alive

Labor has a list up to 120, that's news to me.

Dream big.

Seriously, though. Imagine being no. 100 on the list of a party that is reaching hard to get 9 or 10 seats. Should you be honored or offended about being there?

Last spots are for retired politicians and culture figures supporting. Famous authors and such

[Hnv1]

The polls since Wednesday differ in numbers but all show the same trend: B&W leading by 2-5 seats, no change in the blocs map, YB still the kingmakers. So far the United left and right aren’t taking a hit from the big parties, but we should walt. Bibi and Gantz practically equal on “fit for PM”. A majority against the immunity.

They should start surveying turnout, that will be much more crucial

[Hnv1]

After the Supreme Court put a stop to the farce of ministerial appointments in this sempiternal interim government we have 4 new ministers: Hangebi (Likud) to agriculture, Hotovli (likud) to diaspora, Akunis (likud) to welfare, Nahari (Shas) deputy to welfare but basically with almost all of the authority

[Hnv1]

After the Supreme Court put a stop to the farce of ministerial appointments in this sempiternal interim government we have 4 new ministers: Hangebi (Likud) to agriculture, Hotovli (likud) to diaspora, Akunis (likud) to welfare, Nahari (Shas) deputy to welfare but basically with almost all of the authority

The only one I know is Tzipi Hotovely and she’s a total asshole.

Hanegbi is actually one of the most senior MKs of the Knesset. son of, when he was first elected he was the Likud far right. Took the bad decision to join Kadima, came back but hadn’t really managed to climb up. Thinks of himself as PM material but not a lot of public support.

Akunis is rather nobody. Mid ranking and uninspiring. Had the pleasure to know his father, he is as dim as he was.

Hotoveli is Bibi’s go to girl for the religious right, waited quite a while for the promotion but seems to have put politics a bit behind since she got married. Indeed a total arsehole

[Hnv1]

Gantz should sack his political advisor. Scored an own goal yesterday. Instead of waging a campaign on bibi and his immunity he allowed him to reframe the debate on his comfort zone. Absolutely rubbish

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu just forfeited his immunity. going straight to trial

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu just forfeited his immunity. going straight to trial

While Gantz is on the plane back from DC

which is ridiculous as you were just claiming you wanted to put the politics aside in this historic moment. what a muppet

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu is now officially indicted with the District Court of Jerusalem having both territorial and subject-matter jurisdiction. As the law dictates that a PM's trial is in front of trio tribunal it is now going to be a big bet on who the judges will be. The court in Jerusalem has quite a lot of right wingers, some are fine and excellent jurist like Winograd, some are more partisan like Zandberg. Interestingly the wife of Yuval Steinitz is a judge of that court, but she will obviously sit this one out.

It will obviously include the court's president Farkash who is right leaning, one of his deputies, and a more criminally oriented judge. Netanyahu did well, if he were to be forced out before he would have stood trial before the court in Tel Aviv which is less favorable to him

[Hnv1]

So... what’s the next step?

The prosecutor sends the evidence to the defendants lawyers, in some cases there can be a pretrial to narrow the scope of questions though I doubt this will happen here, and then you have the reading which is the formal start of the trial. when that happens depends on the court secretary (by my lawyer experience usually old crones who chain smoke Marlboro Red). but I assume it will be 2-3 months. As Bibi has a lot of preliminary arguments it will take sometime before the prosecution begins bringing witnesses and such.

[Hnv1]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

[Hnv1]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

[Hnv1]

Oh and there's no bomb lit under the right. Bennet is speaking out out of habit more than anything, everyone knows no Palestinian stat will form. There will be some annexation but no return for the Palestinians. This isn't a peace plan its the burial of the 2SS Bibi has been working on for three decades. 

[Hnv1]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

Embracing the plan is a step to the left and not right for not only Gantz and not Bibi. Netanyahu has since Bar Ilan used as a campaign centerpiece the idea that only he can prevent a Palestinian state. Now he vocally supports one. Gantz has explicitly refused to endorse the 2 state solution. Now he vocally supports is. You are absolutely correct that the Trump plan is an immoral catastrophe for the Palestnians. But the point is that not only does everyone realize that it will never be actualized but that even if it were it would still be an improvement on the apartheid-like madness that currently exists.

But I actually think it's a real mistake to assume that Arab voters are mainly or even especially fixated on the Palestine question.  The reason that Arab voters sat out the April election was, in part, a belief that tbe Arab parties were more concerned with Palestinians than Arab voters in Israel. Arab voters oppose Netanyahu and the fantatical right not only because the apartheidal treatment of Palestinians, but mainly because Arabs can't build just and hope-filled communities in Israel because they face racism and discrimination. It stinks that Palestinians can't have a state. It stinks even more that THIS state is shrugging at historic gun violence in Arab towns simply because they are Arab towns. It's grossly wrong that Palestinians can't access shipling ports. It's even worse that the nation state law opens up the door to prevent Arabs in Israel fron accessing affordable housing, decent infrastructure, and the keys to economic success.

If I were Gantz I probably would have played this differently. But I certainly don't think that doing the way he did will hurt him. As I said, I think it is far more likely to open up divisions on the right rather than left.

I don’t think this plan is a 2SS because the Palestine envisioned there isn’t really a state. It’s Bibi’s motto “State Minus”.

I think Arab voter turnout who have gone down anyhow, but I think the major issue here is that Gantz supported a plan that might espouse population swap which is racist and offensive to many Arab voters (quite rightly).

[Hnv1]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

Embracing the plan is a step to the left and not right for not only Gantz and not Bibi. Netanyahu has since Bar Ilan used as a campaign centerpiece the idea that only he can prevent a Palestinian state. Now he vocally supports one. Gantz has explicitly refused to endorse the 2 state solution. Now he vocally supports is. You are absolutely correct that the Trump plan is an immoral catastrophe for the Palestnians. But the point is that not only does everyone realize that it will never be actualized but that even if it were it would still be an improvement on the apartheid-like madness that currently exists.

But I actually think it's a real mistake to assume that Arab voters are mainly or even especially fixated on the Palestine question.  The reason that Arab voters sat out the April election was, in part, a belief that tbe Arab parties were more concerned with Palestinians than Arab voters in Israel. Arab voters oppose Netanyahu and the fantatical right not only because the apartheidal treatment of Palestinians, but mainly because Arabs can't build just and hope-filled communities in Israel because they face racism and discrimination. It stinks that Palestinians can't have a state. It stinks even more that THIS state is shrugging at historic gun violence in Arab towns simply because they are Arab towns. It's grossly wrong that Palestinians can't access shipling ports. It's even worse that the nation state law opens up the door to prevent Arabs in Israel fron accessing affordable housing, decent infrastructure, and the keys to economic success.

If I were Gantz I probably would have played this differently. But I certainly don't think that doing the way he did will hurt him. As I said, I think it is far more likely to open up divisions on the right rather than left.

I don’t think this plan is a 2SS because the Palestine envisioned there isn’t really a state. It’s Bibi’s motto “State Minus”.

I think Arab voter turnout who have gone down anyhow, but I think the major issue here is that Gantz supported a plan that might espouse population swap which is racist and offensive to many Arab voters (quite rightly).

Yeah, I didn't realize that Umm al Fahm and other Arab towns in the north would be transfered to the new Palestinian quasi-state under the plan. And now Gantz wants to approve the plan even before election day.

This country...smh.

The Palestinians taking Umm Al Fahm is justified, honestly.

Why don't we ask the residents of Umm Al Fahm before we change their citizenship without consent?

[Hnv1]

I’m going to carefully say that I think Gantz lost the elections yesterday. JL voter turnout is going to dip and the right wing won’t move now. It will either be a unity government of a 4th run.

No, I think exactly the opposite. I think Bibi and Trump lit a bomb underneath the right wing and Gantz was smart enough to quickly get out of the way before it goes off. I also think it will energize rather than depress Arab turnout.

What do you think Gantz did wrong?

Gantz was in a bit of a pickle here. this was Bibi's show and he was working on it for more than 2 years. he foolishly entered the right wing contest with Likud, but maybe that's wisdom in hindsight.

Arab turnout will go down, now they don't see a difference between them and there's no great urgency in replacing Bibi for the ex-general. and now he also lost their recommendations. also Bibi flanked him from the right, he now can't offer NR or Shas anything to pull them away from the bloc, plus Bibi can pressure YB into a government now under some strategic pretense.

Where did Gantz go wrong? well he (his crew headed by Yoram) working brilliantly tactically, doing a quid for quo with Likud. But Bibi is a man of strategy, he knew he can pull this rabbit out at anytime.
in hindsight letting Hendel and Hauser screw the minority government option ended him, and then moving the discussion into the annexation a week ago was even more foolish.

I think he will be forced into a unity government with YB in as well as some grand national unity government for the annexation and coming Intifada.

Embracing the plan is a step to the left and not right for not only Gantz and not Bibi. Netanyahu has since Bar Ilan used as a campaign centerpiece the idea that only he can prevent a Palestinian state. Now he vocally supports one. Gantz has explicitly refused to endorse the 2 state solution. Now he vocally supports is. You are absolutely correct that the Trump plan is an immoral catastrophe for the Palestnians. But the point is that not only does everyone realize that it will never be actualized but that even if it were it would still be an improvement on the apartheid-like madness that currently exists.

But I actually think it's a real mistake to assume that Arab voters are mainly or even especially fixated on the Palestine question.  The reason that Arab voters sat out the April election was, in part, a belief that tbe Arab parties were more concerned with Palestinians than Arab voters in Israel. Arab voters oppose Netanyahu and the fantatical right not only because the apartheidal treatment of Palestinians, but mainly because Arabs can't build just and hope-filled communities in Israel because they face racism and discrimination. It stinks that Palestinians can't have a state. It stinks even more that THIS state is shrugging at historic gun violence in Arab towns simply because they are Arab towns. It's grossly wrong that Palestinians can't access shipling ports. It's even worse that the nation state law opens up the door to prevent Arabs in Israel fron accessing affordable housing, decent infrastructure, and the keys to economic success.

If I were Gantz I probably would have played this differently. But I certainly don't think that doing the way he did will hurt him. As I said, I think it is far more likely to open up divisions on the right rather than left.

I don’t think this plan is a 2SS because the Palestine envisioned there isn’t really a state. It’s Bibi’s motto “State Minus”.

I think Arab voter turnout who have gone down anyhow, but I think the major issue here is that Gantz supported a plan that might espouse population swap which is racist and offensive to many Arab voters (quite rightly).

Yeah, I didn't realize that Umm al Fahm and other Arab towns in the north would be transfered to the new Palestinian quasi-state under the plan. And now Gantz wants to approve the plan even before election day.

This country...smh.

The Palestinians taking Umm Al Fahm is justified, honestly.

Why don't we ask the residents of Umm Al Fahm before we change their citizenship without consent?

Umm, they call themselves ‘Palestinian’, fly Palestinian flags, lionize Raed Salah, worship the Muslim brotherhood and so on. It’s clear what the answer is.

Have you ever been in there? Honestly. Do you know a single person from there?

[Hnv1]

All of which points to a darkly amusing truth: there is something distinctly... Atlas poster... about the 'plan', isn't there? As if the regulars in the redistricting board had been drafted in to do the work.

It’s similar to the Palestinian Emirates plan some fringe right wingers espoused for years

[Hnv1]

98
Who am I saying should disappear? I'm saying majority Palestinian cities should be in a future Palestinian state.

What state? There is only one state there and it's called Israel. Said state accepts all the Jews living there and abroad, but only a part of the Palestinian locals. There is not going to be a ''future Palestinian state'' worthy of that name. At best the Israelis are only willing to allow a bantustan-like entity, without territorial consistency or economic viability. There are two kind of Palestinians: citizens and non-citizens. It's better to be a discriminated minority in a viable state, even if that state does not recognize your national identity. Who is stupid enough to accept the transfer to a bantustan state? I understand some posters here are racist and don't like the Palestinians, but don t pretend to disguise your racism with that rubbish. There is no ''two state solution'', face it.

This is actually a very good argument for why an Israeli Arab would rather be a citizen of Israel than a citizen of Palestine.

However, it conflicts with what all the left-wing Israelis here are saying. They're saying the Arabs should remain Israeli because they actually love Israel. You're saying they should remain Israeli so they can extract more resources from the Israeli government

and while that would be a completely logical thing for Arabs to do, it would also be completely logical for Israel Jews not to want to let Arabs do that, so that would explain why they want to get rid of these Arab populated bits of their country.

love Israel? the country isn't your mom to love like that. most (sane) Jews don't love the "State of Israel".

The argument usually follows on several points:
- contrary to what some think, polling among Israeli Arabs show that no more than third at best  identify as Israelis. 70 years of Israeli rule as also altered them different from the Palestinians with many cultural differences
- no one asked the residents what they want, citizenship is an individual right no up to collective bargaining. the PA has no mandate to discuss or agree anything above their heads
- this transfer of citizens has a very problematic constitutional saying, it tells any other Arab resident of Israel that he's merely a citizen contingently
- Lastly, the Arab residents of such towns didn't settle there illegally, they cannot be compared to Jewish settlers in the West Bank as a quid for quo  

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1226940217719959553

Oops.

I don’t see a big deal, every party running no matter how small can get those figures. Part for divorced men running away from court documents there’s nothing in the data that really breaches privacy

[Hnv1]

Likud are working on base turnout. My partner was a Likud members for years and she’s been getting more texts and calls then ever. They also have an app that take information from cellphone to target family and friends of those with the app

If Arab turnout will decrease by 5% and Likud/shas demographics by 2-3% we might see a very narrow right wing majority