Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

stupid question: Does the Supreme Court have any powers to impose it's order? If not is there anything the President could or more realistically would do?

Funnily enough when the UK had a similar (but in retrospect less severe) debate about the powers of the court the assumption was that the UK court system was strong enough to force a sitting PM to act & if not be held in contempt because we had an act of Parliament invoking it.

Our legal system is built on writs just as the British one and our contempt of court is a translation of the British one. Though I doubt that if he refuses the court will hold him in contempt, that would merely be a massive constitutional crisis. Of course it could be bypassed by simply order the Knesset secretariat to put it on vote.

[Hnv1]

I don't understand why they pick the most ridiculous hills to die on. First the camera thing and now this. The harder they fight the stupider they look when they inevitably lose.

Because the know the Anti-Bibi laws are game changers in a manner they can’t predict

[Hnv1]

The irony is that the Joint List is given arguably more power now than if they were merely supporting a Gantz government from the outside. They are basically now part of the "government" faction of the Knesset.

Handel and Hauser don't seem bothered by this. Why not just let them vote once so the head of their list can become PM?

Apparently Touma-Suleman is rumored to lead a committee, would she agree to that?

And that’ll probably be the end result

She already led a committee for 4 years from 2015-19

[Hnv1]

When is the vote scheduled?

Should be Wednesday but it seems Bibi gave a green light to Edlstein to defy the court ruling. This is turning really ugly really fast

[Hnv1]

When is the vote scheduled?

Should be Wednesday but it seems Bibi gave a green light to Edlstein to defy the court ruling. This is turning really ugly really fast

Can't the opposition MKs just ignore Edlstein and convene anyway?

Legally no...though you can appeal to the new house committee and they can schedule it to next Monday, but with Passover it will leave Gantz very short time frame to move with the bills he wants to push

[Hnv1]

When is the vote scheduled?

Should be Wednesday but it seems Bibi gave a green light to Edlstein to defy the court ruling. This is turning really ugly really fast

Can't the opposition MKs just ignore Edlstein and convene anyway?

Legally no...though you can appeal to the new house committee and they can schedule it to next Monday, but with Passover it will leave Gantz very short time frame to move with the bills he wants to push

"Legally"? If the Supreme Court has ordered the Knesset to convene, it makes no sense that the Knesset convening would be illegal. Whatever legal authority Edelstein used to have, he's clearly abdicated it by refusing to comply.

The SC ordered the speaker to put this motion to a vote, it’s already convening.

Anyhow that’s not really what I’m talking about, of course legally you can think of moves to coerce compliance. But if he refuses a court ruling then the entire system is pretty much bust, convening would just be another move that will happen in the new (revolutionary for lack of better term in english) legal system that will come out of this constitutional crisis. Going back to general jurisprudence this is basically the end of this legal system if the state of Israel as the rule of law collapsed, from it will have to come a new order.

[Hnv1]

Edlstein might resign just before 00:00 to avoid disobeying the order directly but causing more of a cluster . If the right is so panicked about those laws I suppose that means B&W should push for them hard

[Hnv1]

Speaker is resigning now. Coming into effect in 48 hours. I need to go through the house code to see what happens erstwhile

[Hnv1]

He’s still speaker for another 48 hours and he refuses to bring it to vote today. Coup d’etat

[Hnv1]

How did Israel end up with such a rabidly partisan Speaker in the first place?

He was elected by a majority when I wasn’t as partisan and ever since stayed so due the incessant elections.

If the SC doesn’t bring about a writ to vote today, protesters should storm the building

[Hnv1]

Abysmal. If a unity government is formed at the end Gantz is as dead politically as absolute monarchism. Edlestein should be in chains or facing a wall. Not being tenderly reprimanded by the president.

I hope this isn’t a followed by mass disobedience by citizens. If they don’t comply with the rule of law we shouldn’t comply with the law

[Hnv1]

It’s ridiculous how the right are crying about the breakup of democracy following the SC’s decision that only came about because Edlestein did not comply with a writ! I rather have civil war then unity

[Hnv1]

Is there any logical reason for this?

He played chicken with Bibi and lost.

Israeli politics has a tendency to shock every time even though you shouldn’t be shocked anymore. This is....I’m speechless

Civil disobedience now.

[Hnv1]

Prediction: Gantz as new Likud leader in 2 years.

Never going to happen and I’m willing to bet you 1:10 USD about it

[Hnv1]

There’s never gonna be rotationZ Likud will vote against a budget and the Knesset will dissolve

[Hnv1]

Update on ministry speculations:
Finance Ministry is likely to go to Katz (even though Bibi promised it to Barkat- oops!), Education was apparently offered to Bennet (he's denying), Nissankorn is the leading candidate for Justice but trooper might get it.

Barkat can join the list. Should have backed Saar the fool

[Hnv1]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

[Hnv1]

Would Labor running alone actually break threshold?

With the tactical pressure to vote Gantz gone, they presumably would without much difficulty.

Labour’s dead as disco

Yeah, it's not even acting as a party at this point- Merav Michaeli is forcefully opposing the government while Peretz and Shmuli might join. I can see something like a new center-left party lead by Yair Golan with Meretz's corpse and a bunch of people who are still loyal like Michaeli and Shaffir.

Don't you lot say this every week though? Is it for real this time?

Yes. Peretz wants to be president, Shumli wants a sniff of minister post

[Hnv1]

Shas' leader has guaranteed Gantz that he'll ensure Bibi honors the rotation agreement. A new law will reportedly ensure that, if snap elections are called, then Gantz will automatically become PM of the caretaker government.

Is it just me or does anybody else think that Bibi's hoping to become President when Rivlin's out next year? That'd earn him 7 years of immunity.

7 years of immunity will give him overall immunity to the time limitation law here. Never mind that I doubt it. He likes the power, being president is meaningless to him

[Hnv1]

Ofer Shelah and Pnina Tamano Shata are definitely strong. Yesh Atid has better MKs than Hosen. Also, this isn't a bad poll at all.

The movements we're expected to see between Hosen, YA and Telem:
Hendel and Hauser from Telem -> Hosen
Mreeh from Hosen -> YA\Telem
Andrey Kozhinov from Telem is apparently staying, but he voted for Gantz as Speaker so not entirely clear yet.
Orly Fruman from Telem is still undecided. Ya'alon, in founding a party with right wing figures, might be left alone in it.
Still unclear what can be done about the legal obstacles to all this. I have a feeling they'll treat the breakup as a break of one party (which is allowed if there are more than a third wanting to separate) rather than a break of several parties to allow all these movements. If Kozhinov and Fruman stay in Telem, the Kahol Lavan name will stay under Lapid.

Gantz is going to get screwed over. Bibi will tell him the agreements reached were under the assumption that he brings 40 seats with him, he will have to cut back on ministerial posts. Or Bibi somehow honors it but will poss 2-6 top likudniks and 3/4 of the Yamina leaders

[Hnv1]

Little known bit of gossip, Lucy Aharish was neatly placed at Gabay’s Labour when suddenly Gantz surfaced and it looked like Labour aren’t going anywhere near 15 seats. I personally don’t like her that much but it’s an improvement to have her on the panel (especially compared to the demented hag Mazlih)

[Hnv1]

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Are you implying there exist alternative forms of democracy based on ethnicity, such as ''Jewish democracy'', ''Arab democracy'', or ''Chinese democracy''? I don't think so

I concur that Zionism and liberal democracy are not indivisible. Far from that, the mainstream rightwing revisionist Zionism is blatantly racist and illiberal. But there's a brand of liberal Zionism that tries to reconcile the notion of ethnic state with the principles of liberal democracy, as it's enshrined in the constitution. In case of conflict (unavoidable), it seems clear many Zionists give precedence to ethnicity

Descriptively of course there is, there exists democracies which satisfy the majoritarian principle and have an ethnic constitutional basis. You might not think that it’s *desirable*, or that any democracy should always contingently come with an absolute equality before the law (still reconcilable with ethnic democracy), or even a stronger case where no there should be no ethnic trait to the state (and the problem lies here).

I am not a big fan of democracy, nation states, or any popular based institution. But your claim is too rigid if you also want to maintain a group right of self determination. Or as a matter of fact enable non liberal societies to move towards a liberal path an ethnic democracy might be a necessary pre condition.

[Hnv1]

Democracy doesn't equal liberal democracy, it can also mean the right of an (ethnically or culturally defined) people to govern itself. The core of Zionism is the right of the Jewish people to have a national homeland, and if there is a conflict between that and liberal principles (as enshrined in the constitution) then you can't just assume that the latter takes precedence for every Zionist. If one were to follow your logic you can't be a Zionist unless you believe in liberal principles incl. minority rights, and that's a meaningless definition.

Are you implying there exist alternative forms of democracy based on ethnicity, such as ''Jewish democracy'', ''Arab democracy'', or ''Chinese democracy''? I don't think so

I concur that Zionism and liberal democracy are not indivisible. Far from that, the mainstream rightwing revisionist Zionism is blatantly racist and illiberal. But there's a brand of liberal Zionism that tries to reconcile the notion of ethnic state with the principles of liberal democracy, as it's enshrined in the constitution. In case of conflict (unavoidable), it seems clear many Zionists give precedence to ethnicity

Descriptively of course there is, there exists democracies which satisfy the majoritarian principle and have an ethnic constitutional basis. You might not think that it’s *desirable*, or that any democracy should always contingently come with an absolute equality before the law (still reconcilable with ethnic democracy), or even a stronger case where no there should be no ethnic trait to the state (and the problem lies here).

I am not a big fan of democracy, nation states, or any popular based institution. But your claim is too rigid if you also want to maintain a group right of self determination. Or as a matter of fact enable non liberal societies to move towards a liberal path an ethnic democracy might be a necessary pre condition.

Could you provide examples of ''ethnic democracies''? The subject would be fascinating to be discussed in another board, as well the right to self determination (its true meaning, in which cases it's enforceable, which people has precedence in case of territorial conflict...). I'd say that Israel is a particular case and most western democracies have constitutions based on liberal principles, but...

In any case, I think democracy is both defined by the majority rule and by the scrupulous respect for minorities. When the Israeli government tries to disenfranchise (even partially) its official Arab minority with the Nation State Law, it's undermining one of the pillars of democracy. Let alone the existence of a consolidated 'status quo', in fact a one-state reality. Israel extends beyond the pre-1967 border to incorporate the West Bank and the Golan Heights. Given that it's unlikely that Israel resigns territorial gains, the Jewish state or the 'ethnic democracy' seem only possible by the disenfranchisement of nearly 1/2 of the population between the Jordan and the Sea

Most of the European state are ethnic democracies to a degree, even liberal Germany has a law of return for German ethnics. France is really the only state with a clear ethnic/nation separation de jure, the rest are on a spectrum. Israel is a bit closer to Central Europe conception of the nation state where the nationality is also strongly linked with ethnicity.

I don’t think your conceptualization excludes ethnic democracies as long as they provide minorities with ample protection either through human rights or through collective autonomy rights (e.g. the danish minority in SH state of Germany).

The Nation State Law night sound bad on paper but I think it has minimal actual effect. SC ruling in Kaadan already established that the Jewish element trumps equality only in regards of immigrations, “once inside the house we are all equal, it’s only the key to the house where lies the difference”.

The problem here is not of definitions but of ambitions, as both (well large parts of) both national movement demand self determination across the entire territory the conflict arise and then escalated to aggressive steps to solidify power like the disenfranchisement or the discrimination in land laws against Arabs.

But that is a debate about concrete facts, not of conflicting conceptual schemata

[Hnv1]

It's looks more and more likely that Yamina, or at least Bennet and Shaked, will be in opposition, and that Litzman will be replaced by soneone from Hosen. Niesenkorn may get Justice instead of Troper.

These are all wonderful developments. It's not like Bibi even wants Yamina in government so I wish Gantz would push for Education instead of Foreign ministry. What the settlers have done to the educational system is a moral crime.

Doubt it. Bibi will be a fool to let Bennet go to the opposition. Justice will end up with Troper, Gantz will be in defence first.

the only real dealbreaker right now is who gets to be speaker. If Gantz agrees to Edlstein that will be total bankruptcy

[Hnv1]

Ok, looks like this will be part of the final agreement:
- Gantz gives up on the Health demand, Litzman will stay on.
- Edlestein will not return to the Speaker's seat, but Likud will choose his replacement- the leading candidates rn are Steinitz and Levin. If it's Levin it'll be a disgusting development- this guy is an extreme authoritarian who challenged the SC to "send in their forces" to enforce their verdict, very dangerous. KL should insist on Steinitz.

I'll put my money on Steinitz\Hanegbi