Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Hnv1]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because they’re at 6, Yamina is of the same composition of the old JH. But yeah they failed big time regardless

[Hnv1]

I have a question concerning recent election results, partly related to a comment made yesterday on the Duverger's Law

Why do you think the Labor-Meretz-Gesher merger has proved to be a failure, in contrast to the Joint List success?

Remember the split of the Joint List in two depressed the Arab turnout in a previous election. On the contrary, the merger of the Zionist Left has produced exactly the opposite effect, worsening the already poor results of Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Camp

I think the different electoral behaviour of the Arab and Zionist Left constituencies is worthy of analysis

JL was underperforming for decades due to low turnout, Arab turnout accounts for most of their gains and the rest is just squeezing all the other parties away from the Arabs.

LGM was uninspiring, old, and brought nothing new. Full of politicians who aren’t well liked. No one career about their socialist campaign

[Hnv1]

Final turnout 71.33%

[Hnv1]

Does the Israeli labour movement (i.e. the Histadrut) still have an organic link to the Labour Party and does it endorse Labor and encourage all union members to vote that way. I think a pretty significant chunk of Israelis belong to a union so wouldn't that give them a lot of votes or have their ties to labour withered? 

The chairman of the histadrut officially has a spot in the Labour high committee and so on, but since the fall of Labour and the move of nissenkorn to B&W the relationship is kinda over

[Hnv1]

Looks like Lieberman has terms for this: unity government with Likud first in rotation, getting the Knesset Speakership, and getting the Presidency

Speaker and President for Likud of course. This terms are unrealistic as Likud can’t have an alternative leader to go first and YB have to recommend Gantz so he gets the mandate first and B&W can push it through the house

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235603523364171777

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.

That's not accurate. B&W ended up with 33

[Hnv1]

I analyzed some other results and got some curious stuff:

First, there's one (1) Otzma voter in the nearby Arab village.
It's a huge decrease from the 2 they got in the last round

Tel Aviv
Democratic Camp alone- 38,298
MLG- 38,797
19,208 Labour voters mostly gone. KL went 113,843 -> 128,591 which is mostly these voters but it still leaves a few thousands, so I could see some south Tel Aviv Kulanu->Labour->Likud too. Oh and also these guys: JL 8,446->11,410, but it's probably mostly from Jaffe turnout increase.

Jerusalem
Some interesting sh**t going on here. Overall turnout increase is just 0.1%, some 2000 people.
LGM with 12,919, while last time DC was at 9,391 and Labour 8,846, so it seems about 6K went to KL (or to some extent JL\Likud).
Now for the real boom:
UTJ was the largest party with 64,937, Likud second at 59,798.
Now it's Likud with 72,601, UTJ with 63,782, interesting because nationally the UTJ votes rose (curse reproduction). So Likud rose by a huge amount- about 12K.
Shas actually rose by 3000 votes in Jerusalem, so their voters didn't go to Likud. I guess a few UTJ ones did.
Also YB who fell by 2000, and Otzma who went 8,794->1,784, all probably went Likud.
Joint List is 3,582 -> 5,321, which probably accounts for all of the rise in turnout- Likud didn't get almost any new voters in Jerusalem.
Now, remember how the left lost 6K to KL? Well, KL only rose by 2K. So where did 4K go? Likud, I guess.
Which means that Likud's 12K and Shas' 3K rise could mostly be accounted for by: 1K UTJ, 7K Otzma, 2K YB, 4K KL. That's 14K of the 15K, the rest are a smathering of new voters, tiny parties and weird voters. Probably also Labour voters but I counted them as KL because they're part of the same overall flow in my mind.

Imagine being that Otzma voter in that Arab Village, the person who most likely voted for Otzma was mostly likely a troll.

The people manning the polling station are party representatives and vote there, when you see this weird things it’s usually one of them.

[Hnv1]

Are there any statements from any JL MKs?

Yes, one announced that Gantz still doesn't understand that he has no mandate unless he concretely and publicly recognizes his the Joint List as a cooperative partner.

As usual Kassif and Toma Saliman will screw everything because Maki wants to be more radical than Balad. Damn commies

[Hnv1]

So are we thinking Gantz actually does become PM on this, or screws up and there's a fourth election? Because during the last coalition negotiations, the left plus YB totaled 65. Now they total 62. The base dynamics are the same but with fewer seats. Aren't they just as likely to mess up over Balad being jerks or Lieberman getting cold feet (understandably, as this puts him on the same side as the Arabs, which his voters won't like) as they were last time?

it will boil down to Hendel/Hauser causing problems XOR Balad+Kassif causing problems. if either happens it will be untenable.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

[Hnv1]

Lieberman's terms for entering a coalition:
Conscription law as agreed upon last year, minimum income of 70% from the minimum wage for seniors who live from benefits, moving all authority on public transportation and businesses in Saturday to the municipal authorities, civil marriage, and conversion by any city Rabbies (would make it easier). Gantz's response: "Agreed".

If somehow they make it happen... we might just get same sex marriage soon. KL needs to start passing these laws immediately when a government is formed to distract from any right-wing provocations regarding the Joint List.

I wouldn't count on the JL with SSMs...Balad and parts of Hadash might be the only supporters. don't forget Ra'am and Ta'al have a lot of people making a living from the 9 (thirteen!) Islamic courts operating in Israel

At least half of the Likud will vote for it. And Bagatz won't allow civil marriage without same-sex marriage.

A clever person would simply phrase civil unions in a manner the Supreme Court would simply interpret as applying to same sex couples...it’s quite easy

[Hnv1]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

No thanks. Beyond the horrible concept of effectively abolishing my right to vote by turning it into an obligation, currently the lowest turnout is by Likud voters and Russians. The left actually votes in quite decent numbers

[Hnv1]

Since I mentioned banning the Joint List as a possible way for Netanyahu to "start rigging elections", here is one for Gantz to do the same: Mandatory voting.

If liberals in Tel Aviv and Arabs are forced to go to the polls under threat of fines that will raise their turnout, while it seems the right wing base (or at least the Haredi) will turn out no matter what; so mandatory voting should mean a left+Arabs majority.

Of course, mandatory voting is infinitely more democratic than banning the Joint list

Another way to 'rig' the polls would be to allow for mail voting, since a lot of Liberal israelis have vacated for the US. However, I suspect these things are two steps ahead of where Gantz is thinking right now.

Would those Israeli citizens living in the US turn out to vote though? Allowing Israelis abroad to vote would definitely help the left as well I imagine, though turnout among "X abroad" is usually low from what I can tell.

Tbh allowing mail voting is indeed something Israel should actually pursue.

Don’t be daft y’all, in a country where every Jew can become a citizen the Haredi will simply organize everyone and send them voting all over the world. The Israeli liberals abroad would be marginalized very fast and liberal American Jews wouldn’t bother

[Hnv1]

Blue and White has apparently given Hauser and Handel an ultimatum: support a minority government or resign.

The catch is that there isn't really any way to force them to resign. All they can do is drop them from the list before the fourth election, and they would surely have two spots awaiting them on Yamina or Likud if that were to happen.

Gantz and Lieberman will meet this afternoon to decide whether to go forward with a minority government.

If they vote against the minority government they can't run in any list next time around

[Hnv1]

Blue and White has apparently given Hauser and Handel an ultimatum: support a minority government or resign.

The catch is that there isn't really any way to force them to resign. All they can do is drop them from the list before the fourth election, and they would surely have two spots awaiting them on Yamina or Likud if that were to happen.

Gantz and Lieberman will meet this afternoon to decide whether to go forward with a minority government.

If they vote against the minority government they can't run in any list next time around

Oh wow. So it really is lobbing a bomb and then running away.

The thing is, the entire government will be KL and a handful of center-left MKs from Labor/Meretz. How are not a trojan horse if you are a KL MK who won't support that?

The government will have to secure votes for any bill anyhow. and I doubt anyone thinks a government of 40 MKs is viable in the long run. I think they point is getting the Adams out of Balfour St. and then wait for someone from Likud to lead a rebellion

[Hnv1]

Gantz met the wonder couple, I think Boogie as a very small grip of his faction and the fear was that they will sway other MKs.

[Hnv1]

Blimey this might be happening, the minority government. Gear up for civil war lads

[Hnv1]

Blimey this might be happening, the minority government. Gear up for civil war lads

How can that even work without anything being passed?

I think the point is just to swear it in, nothing more nothing less.

[Hnv1]

Blimey this might be happening, the minority government. Gear up for civil war lads

No. For the first time in years the government will be pursuing a legislative agenda supported by a large majority of Israelis. The right wing noise machine is all smoke and mirrors because they know that once people see that the Joint List isn't actually trying to destroy Israel and that the left actually supports a popular and responsible agenda, the whole game is up and the right wing can't scaremonger their way to victory. All they'll have is 20 year olds in black hats and a 6th grade education sitting on train tracks in Jerusalem and kippot srugim with peyot wider than the Ayalon hyperventilating and throwing things and spraypainting about Gantz making Israel a democratic and open country that accepts and celebrates all of its citizens and not just its Jewish ones. A country based on democratic principle (and the Zionism of Ben Gurion) is a nightmare for those who prefer an Israel based on the atavistic hate of some rabbinic ideologue who believes that the role of Arabs in this world is to serve the Jewish people in this life and the next.

But most people? They may absolutely hate the idea of a government sitting on the votes of the Joint List, but they'll live with it.

In any case, I don't exactly see how Gantz plans to win over the now three right wingers in his party to support a minority government. He seems all in at tjis point, but is that enough to make it happen?

Im trying to remember whether I was ever as optimistic like you or I’m just a political anhedonistic

[Hnv1]

Of course, in September Hendel and Hauser could have been told to go screw themselves and there would still have been enough votes for Gantz as long as Balad abstained. But alas.

But YB had cold feet

[Hnv1]

Lapid goes out saying it's either a minority government or fourth elections, and than the JL are only required for one vote. I think the decision has been made. And I think they called it right when the finally went out in public to justify it, as long as they treated it and the JL as a dirty mistress it legitimized Bibi's racist exclusion campaign.

Get it done.

[Hnv1]

Gantz wants a quick negotiation swearing in the new government on March 23

[Hnv1]

Do we have any idea who is ideally going to be in the govt so far? B&W, LGM, and then happens.  Is YB looking at outside or inside support? Is all the Joint List going to be outside or will certain members be invited into govt? I have to assume that even the wonder twins would prefer anything to a fourth election.

From the tweets I get that YB are in, I hope JL won’t do anything stupid about it

[Hnv1]

Orly levy is speaking against the minority government and the joint venture with Meretz. F***ing *********

[Hnv1]

More people are talking about a unity government in light of the Corona. I think it’s an excuse, Gantz knows he cannot afford another failure at forming a government