Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.

There is actually no reason for these things not to happen. A large and growing majority of voters and even Likud members support these reforms. The only people who do not support them are the Haredim, and as a general rule in Israeli politics offending the Haredim is good and not bad politics. Bibi's grip on power is dependent upon them, which explains his fealty. But in today's Israel it is recognized that you either join the Haredim or you beat them, and nobody wants to join them.

In any case, this secularization is happening with the Haredim in power. If they lose a place in government there is literally nothing stopping the legislation of these laws and an acceleration of secularization.

A lot of items of there don’t have the uniform support of B&W voters let alone Likud voters. Drafting Haredi will never happen and it’s a good thing

[Hnv1]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.

There is actually no reason for these things not to happen. A large and growing majority of voters and even Likud members support these reforms. The only people who do not support them are the Haredim, and as a general rule in Israeli politics offending the Haredim is good and not bad politics. Bibi's grip on power is dependent upon them, which explains his fealty. But in today's Israel it is recognized that you either join the Haredim or you beat them, and nobody wants to join them.

In any case, this secularization is happening with the Haredim in power. If they lose a place in government there is literally nothing stopping the legislation of these laws and an acceleration of secularization.

A lot of items of there don’t have the uniform support of B&W voters let alone Likud voters. Drafting Haredi will never happen and it’s a good thing

The draft of Haredim DID happen just five years ago when Lapid and Bennet worked to pass the draft law. I also oppose the draft of Haredim (and everyone else, by the way), but itbis one of the most politically simple things to do for a non-Haredi government.

Do ask the IDF HR directorate how many Haredi did they draft by Lapid’s law. You will find that Haredi draft actually decreased.

[Hnv1]

Chanel 13 published tapes (probably provided by Kara) where Bibi and Kara are discussing matters regarding the communication market far after he was barred from interfering with it due to the pending investigation.

Chanel 12 published transcripts where Deri claims to have been approached by different figures in Likud about booting Bibi.

Something feels like tonight was the night the end of Bibi was in plain sight

[Hnv1]

If the result is a grand coalition (or any coalition, for that matter) without Bibi, could he try to start a new party aimed at fighting against muh leftist judges and keeping him out of jail? Maybe it could work, if he's still so popular.

The assumption is that he will try to somehow overturn the election result. He'd rather be dead in a ditch than have to accept an elected government that opposes him.

Is there any remotely realistic way it could be done? Like, if he really wanted to, I guess he could convince/threaten Rivlin into dissolving Knesset and calling yet another election, but that would lead to a huge backlash. But IMO the most dramatic way this whole thing could end is Bibi fleeing the country (and even then, where to?)

I assume calling the election results fraudulent and calling his supporters to march the streets and demand “fair” elections.
Not sure he will have a majority to dissolve the Knesset again, but if he rattles the Sabres enough and creates a legitimacy problem for any other candidate’s attempt to form a government he could pull it off. Basically democracy has no legal solution to this sort of occurrences. The answer lies in the political battleground

[Hnv1]

Otzmah Yehudit, the Kahanist party, is now pretty consistently passing the threshold. That's terrifying, but I am dubious that they'll actually slip in. It is also notable that even with Otzmah in the right wing still has only 58 mandates and Blue and White are now consistently leading Likud by one

I mean they have only gotten into the Knesset in 3/9 September polls, which is rather normal for a MOE party that is getting 2.8% or so in the others. Like I said earlier, the zehut vote seems to have gone almost perfectly over to otzma, even though their negotiations were with likud. Unless things still change though, I doubt otzma gets in - zehut was getting seats in EVERY poll, sometime 5/6 seats, but still missed the Knesset. If otzma gets in, the right will probably have bigger issues like turnout and likuds inability to hold their vote together.

But yes, it is  a scary outcome.

I think what we see is Rightward bleeding votes to Otzma, some Zehut voters, Noam voters, and Habbad getting behind again.

Bibi to make a statement, probably commit to annexation in C territories.

Only plus side today is Labour getting dangerously close to the threshold even before the great suctions of Election Day

[Hnv1]

Otzmah Yehudit, the Kahanist party, is now pretty consistently passing the threshold. That's terrifying, but I am dubious that they'll actually slip in. It is also notable that even with Otzmah in the right wing still has only 58 mandates and Blue and White are now consistently leading Likud by one

I mean they have only gotten into the Knesset in 3/9 September polls, which is rather normal for a MOE party that is getting 2.8% or so in the others. Like I said earlier, the zehut vote seems to have gone almost perfectly over to otzma, even though their negotiations were with likud. Unless things still change though, I doubt otzma gets in - zehut was getting seats in EVERY poll, sometime 5/6 seats, but still missed the Knesset. If otzma gets in, the right will probably have bigger issues like turnout and likuds inability to hold their vote together.

But yes, it is  a scary outcome.

I think what we see is Rightward bleeding votes to Otzma, some Zehut voters, Noam voters, and Habbad getting behind again.

Bibi to make a statement, probably commit to annexation in C territories.

Only plus side today is Labour getting dangerously close to the threshold even before the great suctions of Election Day

I thought Chabad specifically urged against voting for Otzmah, because it doesn't think it will cross the threshold?

Chabadnik aren’t like Hasidim, the authority of current Rabbis is much less stern (mainly as those psychos still think the big one is quasi alive), the closer otzma are to threshold the ban will break

[Hnv1]

This announcement means nothing. He’ll need more than 61 seats with his narrow right government if he tries to pass it with anything less than a US lukewarm approach

[Hnv1]

Israel politics junkies: If I were Netanyahu right now, should I be sweating, or shopping for champagne?

Stay dehydrated as you’re going to sweat a lot

[Hnv1]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

[Hnv1]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

Agreed. It's a tight affair.

what would happen with 60-60?

He can win the vote of confidence if he convinces one MK against to abstain

[Hnv1]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

[Hnv1]

Prediction beta version
Likud 36
B&W 35
Joint List 9
YB 8
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Rightward 7
Democratic camp 5
Labour 4

Bibi bloc 59
Rest 61

[Hnv1]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

Yeah their campaigns were just bad, especially the Democratic Camp's. I won't say the Green New Deal plan is the bad part- it was a really decent plan that Israelis SHOULD care about if we want a normal country and not a huge traffic jam, but the rest... eh. Attacking Orly Levy was a very bad look that turned off a lot of people, and generally were never inspiring or interesting. Labour did run a good campaign for socialists, but it's just too small a segement and for the rest of the left there was really 0 reason for them to run alone.

I wasn’t talking about content but rather the image. We don’t go to the polls here on environmental issues. Attacking Levy was actually good, she’s hardly popular with Left voters who aren’t young woke unbearable Labour voting students

[Hnv1]

Here is a short election compass tool from Channel 12:

https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I had

79% Democratic Camp
76% Joint List (for whom I am taking my little k8ds to volunteer tomorrow morning)
67% Labor-Gesher

Terrible compass. 7 questions is hardly enough. I got B&W 81%, DemCamp 77%, Joint List 75%.

Final Prediction:
Likud - 35
B&W - 34
Joint List - 10
UTJ - 8
Shas - 7
YB - 7
Rightwards - 6
Dem Camp- 5
Labour - 4
Otzma - 4

Right - 60
Rest - 60

[Hnv1]

For a couple of days the big news here has been the report that Netanyahu was very close to launching a major military campaign in Gaza after he was forced to take cover during a rocket attack near his campaign stop. Today it was even reported that Bibi told election officials to prepare a postponement of the election.

So why didn't any of it happen? Yesterday it was said that the attorney general told him he couldn't do it lawfully without cabinet approval (and he didn't get it, which is odd given the fact that usually it is Netanyahu holding back his war-mongering cabinet visa-vis Gaza). Tonight, though, it is said that IDF leadership basically shut Bibi's war because it seemed politically motivated.

It's a bombshell, but if the submarine affair didn't destroy Bibi among his voters then this won't, either. The real news here is what begs the question: does Bibi really think he is in such danger that he would actually launch a war to save his political skin (and freedom)? It is one thing to become a one-stater and isolate Israel diplomatically. It's another to cause a massive loss of life on both sides that a war would bring. Netanyahu does se desperate, of course. But I suppose he always seems that way right before an election. He wins anyway. One thing he has never done, though, is start an all out war for political gain. If that report is true, you have to wonder if something is really about to happen in the political system.

The cabinet is a hull regardless, and this government is an extreme interim government. the prospect of having Smotric reprimand him on a cabinet meeting a week before the polls was probably enough to turn Bibi off.

It will be interesting if Likud will indeed instigate trouble in Arab settlements tomorrow.

[Hnv1]

At the poll now, massive line. Centre left stronghold

[Hnv1]

High turnout is great for Likud sadly

[Hnv1]

Turnout was 26.8% at 12, compared to 24.8 in April.

We could be looking at standard 67% turnout.

[Hnv1]

B&W are worried about turnout in some of their strongholds

[Hnv1]

36.5% turnout at 14:00, now only up slightly from 35.8% in April, so the morning rush has dissipated.

It's going to finish lower than April. I'd guess 64-65ish percent. Still probably a tick higher than what was expected.

Seems to be heading to a 2015 turnout of 71%. Nearly parallel percentages

[Hnv1]

Turnout at 1600 at 44.3%, a slight increase from April. It looks on target for a final turnout between 65 and 70 percent, which is neither particularly high nor low.

I’ll have the final number on 69-70%.

If the increase is mainly in Arab voting than its good

[Hnv1]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

[Hnv1]

63.7% at 20:00. Bibi is broadcasting like a madman. Right voters are going out

[Hnv1]

8pm turnout at 63.7 percent, on pace for a turnout of around 70 percent or so

Well at least one of my predictions will be right

[Hnv1]

DemCamp aren’t passing the threshold. B&W ate too much. Brace yourselves massive right victory in coming

Where are you seeing this?

Insiders from the exit polls and turnout data