Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

Likud activists are starting to threaten violence and intimidate the legal system...

I always anticipate Bibi will burn down the house. If necessary there will blood on the streets. Thankfully Israel is a country where the army is firmly centrist. But there will be minor violence before he falls

[Hnv1]

It appears it was the right wing of B&W that prevented a minority government when YB agreed to abstain. If it does come to a third election cycle I hope Hendel and Hauser find themselves out of the list.

[Hnv1]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sefiova/status/1195657813416173569

So Blue and White really may be going all-in on the minority government option. The bottom part of the tweet questions what Liberman will do, and while it's true that he hasn't explicitly ruled in supporting a lefist minority government, he also has done everything possible to avoid ruling it out. Maybe thar's part of the bluff. Maybe not.

They have nothing to lose by this move. If it doesn’t succeed will go to the 21 days period as planned

[Hnv1]

Bibi will be sh**tting himself. Expect full blown racism by the right in the next 4 days.

Anyway we have 44 seats minus the idiotic 2 from B&W, add 13 for the JL and we have 55 and Balad and the communists Kassif and Saliman might vote against. the right bloc is 55 meaning the vote needs 56 for.

meaning Gantz can spare only one member of his bloc abstaining, if one of them votes against then he needs 57.

that is all considering YB will only abstain.

[Hnv1]

Still can’t see how Balad are coming around

[Hnv1]

Still can’t see how Balad are coming around

They'll never willingly be part of a government, regardless of who leads it.

They don’t need to be in just vote for it

[Hnv1]

B&W are going for a wise trick, announcing they have a government on Wednesday which gives them 7 days to present it to the knesset and delay the return of the mandate to our grossly incompetent president.

[Hnv1]

Lieberman speaking now, talking a lot and saying nothing. doesn't commit on any minority or narrow government but being cryptic. 

[Hnv1]

I have faith in MArtin Schlaf and the fact both Lieberman and Lapid are his proxies

[Hnv1]

Apparently Unity Government talks are on the table again.

https://twitter.com/lahavharkov/status/1196702329682219014?s=21

heavy fog of war. Gantz and Bibi meeting tonight. I do believe everyone are too frightened of a third election it will happen in the end (though after Gantz's mandate passes). Bibi of course will betray B&W on his first chance. but it's their funeral.
meanwhile Labour and DemCamp will slowly disintegrate and merge.

[Hnv1]

How likely is it that Israel will have elections again?

most likely scenario now

[Hnv1]

Lieberman is...talking and isn't saying anything, so far attacking Bibi but also giving B&W flack

[Hnv1]

some general racism on Haredi-Arab alliance...jesus the propaganda levels here. no minority government it seems

[Hnv1]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

[Hnv1]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I am going to call it now. The Arab-left bloc will get a majority in March.

care to take a bet? we'll wire the cash according to the winner

[Hnv1]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I've already been hearing people talking about boycotting the election. This is going to be a disaster, the Haredim and Likudniks will turn out while the center left will virtue-signal and remain home to be "principled" or something.

Also, Lieberman said this convention needs to be between "Zionist parties", aka not Haredi or Arab. He's really going for that xenophobic vote

Likudnik vote isn't going to rise above the left vote in any case.

[Hnv1]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

true. every MK has a right to request immunity and you can't discuss immunity without a permanent Knesset committee

[Hnv1]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

true. every MK has a right to request immunity and you can't discuss immunity without a permanent Knesset committee

So if the SC decides that he can't form a government it'll not be true until he's officially indicted, even if Mandelblit finally makes a decision?

mmmm I really don't think there's a clear cut answer right now. I'm leaning towards no as Haim Katz is under the same situation and no indictment until immunity debate.

[Hnv1]

Likud admit they agreed that Gantz will be first in return for immunity to Bibi. what a piss pot of a party

[Hnv1]

So while I was asleep have we actually gone of the metaphorical cliff guaranteeing third elections? Or will there be room for more shenanigans like a non-Bibi, non-Gantz, MK getting the go ahead from the Pres to form a government? 

There are still 21 days until an election is triggered, so Bibi, Gantz or someone else can still present 61 recommendations to have another try (this time limited by 14 days).

this but with the current levels of distrust I can't see anyone signing for the other guy to get a mandate again.

B&W don't believe a word Bibi says, and the chiefs know him well enough so this is a wise call. Bibi doesn't really care, he stays pm as long as nothing change and he only cares about his trial

I think it's time for a little military coup, the B&W chiefs have the men in the IDF, make it a silent one where they inform bibi he has to go

[Hnv1]

Here is a question. Are interim ministerial positions voted on in plenum? I don't understand why Naftali Bennet gets to remain defense minister despite a Knesset that has more left wingers than right wingers. It seems awful and dumb that we are using a Knesset dissolved one year ago to determine the interim government a year and a half later.

yes. when the basic law was drafted no one really thought of successive elections. Tomorrow the Knesset's advocate (who's an excellent jurist is going to publish a paper on what happens next. but it's important to remember most of what's happening is filled with voids at the moment

[Hnv1]

So last 21 days. Each MK can vote for multiple candidates, individual votes not as factions.

[Hnv1]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

going to lose. but I think the entire point is to unhinge Bibi, if he sees it takes too much to win or creates too much collateral damage for the GE he might get the hint. Sa'ar is brave as he's going to take some much heat right now. But generally he's a HP.

[Hnv1]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/first-likud-mk-publicly-backs-saar-in-case-of-likud-primaries/

It’s pretty clear Likud are finally starting to see Netanyahu as a liability. Being a kiss ass is bad enough, but being a kiss ass to a man who’s lost 2 elections, is openly fraudulent/corrupt, and is being blamed for dragging the country into a situation that no one wants to be is MUCH worse.

Michal Shir was always of Saar’s camp. Bibi has unprecedented support within the parliamentary group

[Hnv1]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1197471840811266048

Maybe this time he is really ready.

Is there any chance Nir Barkat will jump in?

No, Saar is the undisputed Never Netanyahu candidate. And Barkat is a bit of a b-lister anyway. I thought he was a decent mayor, though.

One of the worst mayor in Israel and generally an opportunist buffoon