My Prediction

[12th Doctor]

This is the first Prediction I have posted in a few months.  If the race stays as is, this is what I believe will happen in Nov.  Fact is, Bush should be ruined after the past two months, but he isn't and I think thats a good sign.

[12th Doctor]

How do you post your prediction maps on the forums. if you tell me how, I will be the first to replie with my prediction.

Just right click on the white boarder of the prediction.  Then click "Copy Image Location".

Then post it and put:    

on the sides of the Image location and you good to go.

[12th Doctor]

Thank you. I will have my prediction after I do so.

Wait, yu have to put:   img   /img  and enclose both img and /img in [].  Sorry, I forgot that it wouldn't show.

Like this [img]jdjdjdj@jfjfjfjfjf.com[/img$]

Except without the dollar sign.

[12th Doctor]

Where do you put -img]jdjdjdj@jfjfjfjfjf.com[/img]?

No, I'm sayng that you put the -img]   [/img] around the map location.

[12th Doctor]

Out of curiosity what makes you think bush will win WI.  Pratically every single poll Kerry is ahead of Bush, the only poll that Bush has been ahead in WI, is the Badger poll & they were WAY off in 2000, had Bush winning the state by double digits

Bush will not let himsself get beat by in the ground game this time, especially in WI.  It was a state that was in his electoral strategy in 2000, and he was expected to carry it by a few points.  However, Democratic shananigans and a good groud game cost him there.  He won't let it happen again.

[12th Doctor]

I just checked the polling section of this site, and there are five polls from PA.

Three are of registered, not likely voters, so toss those out.  One is a Zogby poll, so toss it out.

This leaves only a Quinipiac College Poll from April, and that shows Bush +6.

Hence, PA is listed for Bush.

Except that's a University poll, so toss it out too.

Quinipiac is Vorlon approved.  The others aren't.  On top of that, Handzus doesn't know what he is talking about when it comes to PA, he might know Philadelphia, but not PA.

[12th Doctor]

I just checked the polling section of this site, and there are five polls from PA.

Three are of registered, not likely voters, so toss those out.  One is a Zogby poll, so toss it out.

This leaves only a Quinipiac College Poll from April, and that shows Bush +6.

Hence, PA is listed for Bush.

Except that's a University poll, so toss it out too.

Quinipiac is Vorlon approved.  The others aren't.  On top of that, Handzus doesn't know what he is talking about when it comes to PA, he might know Philadelphia, but not PA.

Do you honestly think that Gore voters wil switch this time around?  Dude, the rest of the state can not overcome the southeast.  We are just too big in population.  Yes, there are a lot of R's right outside Philly, but a good number of them are voting Kerry.  

I've already made my arguement a million times for why PA is the most "in-play" state in this election cycle and stands a strong chance of going Bush, even if Ohio doesn't.  I will not waste my breath again.

[12th Doctor]

EXTREMELY over-optimistic.  No way Bush does that well.  I'm not saying a Bush win isn't possible, but it will be a lot closer than your map.

Extremely?  Huh?  His map only has Bush winning by a couple points.  Note how New Hampshire goes Kerry.

He has Bush getting over 60% in most southern states, just not possible due to the black population.

In most southern states?  Hardly.  I only have those margins in South Carolina (which went almost 58% for Bush last time), Alabama and Mississippi.  That's just three according ot my count.

[12th Doctor]

Bush hit his ceiling in those states in 2000. The only whites who didn't vote for him are the few poor liberals stuck in those nightmarish hellholes, and that won't change this year. He'd have to get around 90% of the white vote in Mississippi to get 60%. Plus all three of those states have gained black population since 2000, there's been a bit of a migration of blacks back to the south.

I disagree.  I see it that Kerry will imporve on Gore's percentages in California and New York, probably by as much as three percent in each.  This will give Kerry an additional 500,000 or so votes from these states.  Bush, however, will gain broadly in many smaller and some southern state, especially Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Georgia.  This will then grant Bush an additional 500,000 votes or so and thise numbers will even out.  Bush will barely win in Wisconsin.  Bush will take Iowa.  And win by slim margins (about 2%) in PA.  Thus the race will finish with a slim Bush PV victory and a slightly wider Bush EV victory.