BUsh up 13% in Kentucky says Survey USA

[The Vorlon]

Bush by 13 in Kentucky

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=21

Similar to a Bluegrass poll with BUsh up 12% 3 months ago, and the 2000 result, which had bush up by 15%

[elcorazon]

For some reason I can't quite explain, I think Kentucky is rapidly becoming one of the most Republican states in the south.  I predict Bush does better in KY than in SC or GA, maybe even MISS.  Of course Tenn, AR, FL and LA are givens.  NC & VA highly likely as well.

[opebo]

For some reason I can't quite explain, I think Kentucky is rapidly becoming one of the most Republican states in the south.  I predict Bush does better in KY than in SC or GA, maybe even MISS.  Of course Tenn, AR, FL and LA are givens.  NC & VA highly likely as well.

KY is whiter than those other states.  The black population in the South votes Democrat, the white votes Republican.

[elcorazon]

For some reason I can't quite explain, I think Kentucky is rapidly becoming one of the most Republican states in the south.  I predict Bush does better in KY than in SC or GA, maybe even MISS.  Of course Tenn, AR, FL and LA are givens.  NC & VA highly likely as well.

KY is whiter than those other states.  The black population in the South votes Democrat, the white votes Republican.

That could help to explain it, but don't forget KY went with Clinton twice, unlike most of those other states.  Has it gotten whiter in the last 8 years?

[Lunar]

It's been trending conservative actually.

80 Reagan won it with <1% over his natioanl average
84 Reagan won it with +1% over his national average
88 Bush won it with +2% over his national average.
92 Bush lost it with +4% over his national average
96 Dole lost it with +4% over his national average
00 Bush won it with +8% over his national average

[classical liberal]

KY went to Bubba because there were enough Bubbas there voting for one of their own.  Sans that effect, KY is just a bit less conservative than SC and a tad more so than NC was back in 2000.

[The Vorlon]

It's been trending conservative actually.

80 Reagan won it with <1% over his natioanl average
84 Reagan won it with +1% over his national average
88 Bush won it with +2% over his national average.
92 Bush lost it with +4% over his national average
96 Dole lost it with +4% over his national average
00 Bush won it with +8% over his national average

In 2000, Bush won by 15% in Kentucky vs a National average of -0.51% - How did you calculate it to be 8% over his national average. Are you taking half the gap for your calculation? (as in +8 for GOP then -8 for the Dems?)

[Lunar]

I was simply doing Bush total nationwide - Bush total Kentucky.  I explained it completely wrong.

Nevertheless, the trend is still there.

[elcorazon]

My guess, without looking at the numbers is he is looking purely at votes for Bush.  For example, Bush received 48% of the vote nationally but 56% in Ky, which would be +8%.  Hopefully that's correct.  Of course that makes 1996 and 1992 hard to deal with, given the presence of 3rd party candidates, but I guess it's a reasonable way to look at it.

[Beet]

Well the traditional "blue collar" Democrats have been gradually bleeding out of the party as the old economic structure disappears.

[classical liberal]

split perot evenly between the two major candidates for 92 and 96.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Well the traditional "blue collar" Democrats have been gradually bleeding out of the party as the old economic structure disappears.

You won't find too many blue-collar Republicans, so that can't be.

One of the reasons Kentucky has become the way it is in recent years is that we don't have an education system. I'd hate to say it, but it's true.

I know firsthand that the school system in Kentucky in recent years has relied mostly on gimmickry, with almost no concern for providing the resources for advancement in life. It wasn't always this bad, but public officials and the media acted like it was, just so they could justify imposing their agenda.

Another factor is election fraud and the intimidation of voters like we saw in the 2003 governor "election".

Yet another is the fact that economic strength has moved towards large metropolitan areas in other states, so people who want to do something with their lives aren't encouraged to stay in the state where they've lived their whole lives.

[Reds4]

Bandit,are you still predicting Kerry to win Kentucky, and South Dakota, and Oklahoma? I hope you don't say republicans intimidate people from the polls away so much that if Kerry loses by double digits in KY (which seems highly likely) the only reason he lost is because of voter intimidation. I understand you want to support your candidate in Kerry and be optimistic on your predictions, but you can't pick states that are strong Bush states to argue your case on. Kerry may well win the election but not KY, OK, or SD.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bandit,are you still predicting Kerry to win Kentucky, and South Dakota, and Oklahoma?

I think Kentucky is the most likely of those 3. I think he'll win it, but not the others.

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I firmly believe Gore would have won Kentucky (and many other states where he "officially" lost) if the votes were counted properly. I didn't know anyone in Kentucky who voted for Dumbya.

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Who said Kerry is my candidate? I'm inclined to support Nader.

[Reds4]

Kerry won't win KY unless he wins popular vote by at least 12%. I am really surprised you think the votes weren't counted right and that made about a 15% error or more. Democrats and Independents count votes too, its not just Republicans sitting around counting votes all the time. You make it sound like only 10% of the country actually supports President Bush. Sorry then about the your candidate, I just said your candidate Kerry because I saw how you liked him better than Bush.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kerry won't win KY unless he wins popular vote by at least 12%.

That might happen!

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Dumbya is lucky he had such a weak opponent last time, or else he probably wouldn't have gotten more than 10% of the vote. That man is a truly toxic influence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kentucky's "whiteness" has nothing to do with it... thing about KY is that the South Central part of the state has been ultra-GOP since the Civil War...
In 2000 Bush did unusually well in Western KY (due to Tobacco related issues) and while he won't do as well there this year, he'll still carry the state because of the South Central bit.

[opebo]

Kentucky's "whiteness" has nothing to do with it... thing about KY is that the South Central part of the state has been ultra-GOP since the Civil War...
In 2000 Bush did unusually well in Western KY (due to Tobacco related issues) and while he won't do as well there this year, he'll still carry the state because of the South Central bit.

I suppose there is some correlation between skin color and voting in the South.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kentucky's "whiteness" has nothing to do with it... thing about KY is that the South Central part of the state has been ultra-GOP since the Civil War...
In 2000 Bush did unusually well in Western KY (due to Tobacco related issues) and while he won't do as well there this year, he'll still carry the state because of the South Central bit.

I suppose there is some correlation between skin color and voting in the South.

Yeeeessssss but it's more importent in the Deep South (where it's Blacks+Dirt Poor whites=Democrat, Other=GOP)... the black population in KY is (IIRC) less than the national average.
If KY had the voting patterns of (say) Alabama, it would be a solidly Democrat state.
It doesn't, so it isn't.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I suppose there is some correlation between skin color and voting in the South.

Some rural counties in Kentucky that are almost all white were among Gore's best counties in the whole nation.

Knott County and Elliott County are good examples of this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've wondered about those myself. I'm guessing that they're union strongholds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've wondered about those myself. I'm guessing that they're union strongholds.

Elliott has been Democrat since the Dawn of Time

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kentucky's "whiteness" has nothing to do with it... thing about KY is that the South Central part of the state has been ultra-GOP since the Civil War...
In 2000 Bush did unusually well in Western KY (due to Tobacco related issues) and while he won't do as well there this year, he'll still carry the state because of the South Central bit.

I suppose there is some correlation between skin color and voting in the South.

Yeeeessssss but it's more importent in the Deep South (where it's Blacks+Dirt Poor whites=Democrat, Other=GOP)... the black population in KY is (IIRC) less than the national average.
If KY had the voting patterns of (say) Alabama, it would be a solidly Democrat state.
It doesn't, so it isn't.

I don't understand. There's no way the white vote in Alabama is more Democratic than in Kentucky. If you reverse them (Alabama has the same voting patterns as Kentucky it's a solidly Dem state) it'd probably be true. Without looking at numbers now I'd make a guess off the top of my head that Gore got about 1/3 of the white vote in Kentucky and about 1/4 in Alabama.

I think the lower black population is the explanation, after all if Mississippi didn't have it's 1/3 black population it'd probably give Republicans larger margins than Utah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kentucky's "whiteness" has nothing to do with it... thing about KY is that the South Central part of the state has been ultra-GOP since the Civil War...
In 2000 Bush did unusually well in Western KY (due to Tobacco related issues) and while he won't do as well there this year, he'll still carry the state because of the South Central bit.

I suppose there is some correlation between skin color and voting in the South.

Yeeeessssss but it's more importent in the Deep South (where it's Blacks+Dirt Poor whites=Democrat, Other=GOP)... the black population in KY is (IIRC) less than the national average.
If KY had the voting patterns of (say) Alabama, it would be a solidly Democrat state.
It doesn't, so it isn't.

I don't understand. There's no way the white vote in Alabama is more Democratic than in Kentucky. If you reverse them (Alabama has the same voting patterns as Kentucky it's a solidly Dem state) it'd probably be true. Without looking at numbers now I'd make a guess off the top of my head that Gore got about 1/3 of the white vote in Kentucky and about 1/4 in Alabama.

I think the lower black population is the explanation, after all if Mississippi didn't have it's 1/3 black population it'd probably give Republicans larger margins than Utah.

Dirt Poor whites in Alabama vote Democrat. There are a lot more Dirt Poor whites in Kentucky than Alabama. Probably a majority of the population.
Go figure.
---
Re: MS; yes... and no. If you cut the Blacks out of MS, the Dirt Poor whites would have no reason to vote GOP (MS is the worst state in the US for racial voting. If it had the same voting patterns as Alabama, Bubba would have won it in 1996. By a wide margin).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Without looking at numbers now I'd make a guess off the top of my head that Gore got about 1/3 of the white vote in Kentucky and about 1/4 in Alabama.

He got more than that in Kentucky. Kentucky is only 7% black.