OH-PPP: Obama 51%, Romney 46%

[Cliffy]

So Romney wins Indpendents by 5 but is losing by 5???  I don't think so.  

[Cliffy]

PPP is a push poll. I've been reading their polls for the last couple of months and they always have liberal biased questions in there,  and a lot of their samples are way out there, this is a better one for them.  Overall result you can pretty much count on them being off 3-4 points in Obama's favor.

I visited here last election and have been reading this fall, haven't wanted to post til recently, useless arguing with most of you on here.  Amusing how you discount sample arguments because it would upset your view of the race.  If the samples in a poll show a turnout that is greater than 08 or unlikely race breakdowns, you guys just think oh well that's swell must be so.    

[Cliffy]

How is it that people are making these confident assertions without knowing how different party ID is now...

Due to some kind of simplistic belief that all states should have a party ID split of 33D/33I/33R and it has been and will always be the same.

Right.....

[Cliffy]

Biden didn't get a bump or it would have shown up in the national polls and Romney's became a trend.  Speaking of, we're expected to believe PPP that in Ohio Biden won the debate by 11, when SUSA had Biden winning by 7 in California???  CNN and others had him losing nationally, highly doubt he won in ohio by 11 if at all.


I don't buy for a second either that Dem enthusiasm is up, nothing points to that, certainly not the absentee and registrations this time around versus last time.

[Cliffy]

Like after the debate how PPP was asking about PBS and Big Bird questions? They consistently ask questions that are liberally biased, go back and read their polls.  They are a liberal ragster.

here's another where PPP goes on and on about his 47 remark explaining it in detail, they've also consistently pushed about his taxes.  They are a joke.


Q10 Mitt Romney recently said, “There are 47
percent of the people who will vote for the
president no matter what. All right? There are
47 percent who are with him, who are
dependent upon government, who believe that
they are victims, who believe the government
has a responsibility to care for them, who
believe that they are entitled to health care, to
food, to housing, to you-name-it, that that's an
entitlement. And the government should give it
to them. And they will vote for this president no
matter what.... These are people who pay no
income tax." Do you think Romney’s

[Cliffy]

No you got me wrong, this poll isn't nearly as egregious as some they've done this cycle, I'm not that worked up about just this one.  What I'm saying is PPP is a liberal partisan propaganda pushing pollster.  The fact that you guys laud polls like this over and over cracks me up.  All PPP is doing is trying to give deranged libs some meat so you don't get completely depressed and keep the RCP from going red quicker.

Biden didn't get a bump or it would have shown up in the national polls and Romney's became a trend.  Speaking of, we're expected to believe PPP that in Ohio Biden won the debate by 11, when SUSA had Biden winning by 7 in California???  CNN and others had him losing nationally, highly doubt he won in ohio by 11 if at all.

It wouldn't necessarily show up much yet in the multi day trackers yet, since those results released today would have only included post- Debate responses on Friday night. And the Reuters poll showed Biden had a 7 point edge nationally on who won the debate, so not completely unbelievable Ohio this year edges a bit more than D than rest of country. Regardless, we get your point. You think this poll is bunk. No need to beat a dead horse. There will be plenty more polls to get be happy or worked up about.

[Cliffy]

Rassmussen shows Obama up 1 in Ohio. PPP shows 5. Split the difference and you get Obama +3. I thnk that makes sense.

If it makes you feel better, whatever but it's not at O+3.  It's prob tied at best +1-2 for O and that's without enthusiasm taken into account.

PPP admits that all over the nation even they see a Romney surge but wait, wait OHIO is completely different and there's no movement.  Right.  Naive much?

And whoever said the early absentee numbers don't suggest dem enthusiam is down, youre not comparing them to last election.  My understanding is Dems are down in requests compared to same time over 2008. 

[Cliffy]

@JayCostTWS 1 hr
In last 3 elections, GOP partisans have been more loyal than their Dem counterparts in OH.

Mccain won the difference in Rs and Ds in 08 in Ohio.  This poll is a joke.


I really have a hard time believing that people in Ohio trust Obama on Libya more than Romney?  That's incredulous, you know an ambassador got murdered right, the middle east is on fire, there is a congressional investigation going on on the cover up and lack of security especially after requests.... and they trust O more.  lol  I swear some of this stuff is like twilight zone material....

[Cliffy]

Rassmussen shows Obama up 1 in Ohio. PPP shows 5. Split the difference and you get Obama +3. I thnk that makes sense.

If it makes you feel better, whatever but it's not at O+3.  It's prob tied at best +1-2 for O and that's without enthusiasm taken into account.

PPP admits that all over the nation even they see a Romney surge but wait, wait OHIO is completely different and there's no movement.  Right.  Naive much?

And whoever said the early absentee numbers don't suggest dem enthusiam is down, youre not comparing them to last election.  My understanding is Dems are down in requests compared to same time over 2008.  

Ohio has been the hardest nut to crack for Romney. This is due to the amount of spending there Team Obama did the past 3-5 months. PPP isn't the only one finding this trend, even Rasmussen showed no bounce for Mitt after the debate.

I understand it's the most difficult swing state, I study all of this crap too.   Well the RCP showed a bounce, it's at 1.7.  there's currently 8 polls and 3 are +4,5,6 and the 5 others are obama +1 or Romney +1.

Like I said before the data on the ground doesn't add up and romney's crowds are at least 2-3x as big this last week there. 

[Cliffy]

let me dissect this rotten fish some more:  Pretty sure there's more women than men in this poll in a weird way and the early voting numbers are way off.

On Biden winning debate, women say Biden 50-37 and close with men 42-37, that's the opposite of what you see in most polls.  Typically women have had a problem with the way Biden acted way more than men.  $ says most females in this poll were democrats which would explain the severe difference of opinion for women in this poll.  Convenient way to get the result that Biden won.  


Another note is I think 3% have voted in early voting compared to total voters in 08 (175k of 5.5 mil) yet their sample is 19%???  So as far as early voting their #s are off a lot and you can't read a whole lot into any advantage in this.    Marist had the same 20%, both are bad #s and polls.  To get that high of a number I think would throw off other metrics in this poll too.

[Cliffy]

Rassmussen shows Obama up 1 in Ohio. PPP shows 5. Split the difference and you get Obama +3. I thnk that makes sense.

If it makes you feel better, whatever but it's not at O+3.  It's prob tied at best +1-2 for O and that's without enthusiasm taken into account.

PPP admits that all over the nation even they see a Romney surge but wait, wait OHIO is completely different and there's no movement.  Right.  Naive much?

And whoever said the early absentee numbers don't suggest dem enthusiam is down, youre not comparing them to last election.  My understanding is Dems are down in requests compared to same time over 2008.  

Ohio has been the hardest nut to crack for Romney. This is due to the amount of spending there Team Obama did the past 3-5 months. PPP isn't the only one finding this trend, even Rasmussen showed no bounce for Mitt after the debate.

I understand it's the most difficult swing state, I study all of this crap too.   Well the RCP showed a bounce, it's at 1.7.  there's currently 8 polls and 3 are +4,5,6 and the 5 others are obama +1 or Romney +1.

Like I said before the data on the ground doesn't add up and romney's crowds are at least 2-3x as big this last week there. 

Did you look at the pollsters?

Gravis, WeAskAmerica, and especially ARG are pretty bad. Only Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are the  only two pollsters out of the group that have any credibility.

Bad??? If they were bad and Rasmussen and Survey USA are good then they would be way out of line with them like PPP and Marist are.....    They are not, they are way closer to Ras than your guys.  I would agree they probably have republican biase but not huge, Ras certainly doesn't or he'd use his party ID poll #s as his sample. PPP continues to be laughable.  It's funny you guys used PPP in your dataset but discount others.   

[Cliffy]

Of note as well PPP is saying Obama wins by 5 which is what he won by in 08.  Yet this poll shows him down 10% in the black vote and Romney losing 2% of Mccain's white vote, convenient balance as well as undecideds for Romney at 5.  Hard to believe...... yet this is a good pollster.  There stuff is like this everytime.

[Cliffy]

You're new here aren't you Cliffy?

Only in posting.  I've been reading for quite awhile this year and last election, just sick of the incredible biase in some of these lib polls.  Yes there are conservative polls and *Gasp* there are liberal polls.  You guys act like the liberal polls are less skewed or biased than the conservatives this time around and they most certainly are not.  I've read all your arguments and most of them don't hold water.  You guys poo poo anyone who questions samples or points out incredible biase and then if a poll comes out that contradicts these heavily enriched ones you say their not credible blah blah blah....

Before the debate you guys thought the election was over, when in reality it was probably obama +1 at best  not counting for enthusiasm.  How on earth you libs can think 2010 turnout doesn't matter and 2008 turnout will be closer to 2012 turnout fries my brain.  It's like you guys are living in an alternate universe where the economy is great, the majority of american actually wants obamacare, the middle east isn't on fire and the president doesn't have multiple scandals going on (F&F, Benghazi)...... I mean you really can't see what's going on.  Amazing.     

[Cliffy]

Not even.  I cruised this board last election because it was easy to pick up poll links (I have a hobby message board mostly Arkansas sports, with a political forum on it) because you guys do a decent job of posting most of the polls.  2008 was pretty easy to see Obama was going to win, Mccain was a weak candidate, the banking collapse and Obama had Lightning in a bottle being first black president, republicans were depressed, etc, etc. I post on a couple of comment sections on blogs but for the most part stick to my own board, it's pretty busy and I don't have time for much else because I spend a lot of my little free time studying polls and reading.  

This time around the Razorbacks suck because petrino was banging a 20 something employee and we have a terrible interim coach now so I'm down on my hogs at the moment but more active on my political board and other blogs. This election has way more excitement than the last one and I've been predicting a romney landslide since January on my own site, i can see it as clearly as I saw Obama winning last time.

Last election I could see some biase in each sides polls but not that much, it was harder to see what was going on too because of the whole history in the making thing.  This time it's pretty clear.  It's not 2008, the question is will it be 2010 or 2004 or better?  Don't want to be mean but liberals can't see it right now but it'll be a wave election at a minimum similar to 08 but R wise.

So anyway I've been reading more this time around on your board for a few months now, really hard to bite my tongue but I haven't had time to engage so I haven't, I had for the most part quit posting PPP polls on my site unless I was bored and wanted to dissect the ridiculousness of them (which generally I didn't have time).  I figured it would be out of line but it's just so blatantly off if they had been +3, I wouldn't have believed it but heh not way out of wack.  Anyway its riled me up and alot of things that I've read on here have just ticked me off and the republicans on here seem to just roll over most of the time because theyre so outnumbered I guess.

[Cliffy]

Saturday, they said, was a strong day for Obama in their polling ...

Who?  

and it seems from history Obama typically polls better on weekends in ras and gallup...

[Cliffy]

not a push poller or agenda???

Jay Cost ?@JayCostTWS
My bottom line on PPP: In WI last week, it asked if Obama hates white people. I do not trust ANY pollster that would ask this question.

[Cliffy]

I guess I might as well make it a point to point out all of the irregularities I can forward, see it's crap like this that irritates me.  I'm an idiot?  Nice, can't discuss the metrics of the polls, or methodology, or any other points I brought up, so you let your insecurity get the best of you and act like youre a child?

Pathetic.  

[Cliffy]

As far as push poll, I get what you're saying.  I should have been more clear and misspoke, PPP is not pushing to get a poll result necessarily but they are pushing a liberal narrative on people almost trying to indoctrinate, it's like a mini democratic infommercial inside there.


You guys crack me up, it's pointed out how erroneous this poll is with the early voting piece and you accept it as gospel that woohoo we're safe in Ohio.

This has Obama increasing his lead, while losing blacks by 10%,  the party defections are way off, more Dems will turn out than in 08???  PPP found Ohio 10% more liberal than the rest of the nation or right on track with NY, right... Since the debate Romney has become less popular, Gop enthusiam has fallen (yeah...look at the rallies) and a higher % of Democrats are going to vote than republicans....

It took 3 skewed liberal polls to show a 1.7 RCP, wow what a success you guys are winning!!!!

This poll is so full of fail.  In 08 PPP was pretty decent, what's hapened since, how did he do in 2010 or Wisconsin??? Oh yeah in 08 they weren't a KOS kids poll, enjoy kids.  

 Lol, we'll see.

[Cliffy]

No I get it.  That's why I corrected myself, it pushes propaganda, wasn't saying it in the literal sense of pushing to drive a result in this poll, they are pushing their liberal agenda to drive a result in the election though. 

[Cliffy]

More info to discredit this poll, 4.4% early voting in reality according to GMU.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html