Australia 2007

[Democratic Hawk]

I've said this before, and I'll say it again, John Howard will win a 5th term in 2007 over Kevin Rudd's ALP. These Prefered Prime Minister polls mean nothing. Howard will win. Mark my words.

Yesterday, Fraser Nelson [some hack who has a column in the News of the World ] was just saying the same thing

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Isn't the very term Liberal Party something of a misnomer?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I gather from right-wing cheerleaders in the British media, that Howard  has been wonderful for the Australian economy and on cutting taxes, so where has it all gone wrong for him? Given that the polls do suggest he's on his way out. That's no guarantee he, is of course

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

To be honest, the electorate have been waiting a while to get rid of him. Yes, the economy has done well under him, but as a whole people think Howard has damaged other elements of Australia's society. Unfortunately for him, he's fallen into the trap of people who do their jobs too well, people believe things will carry on regardless of their presence - Polls suggest people this.

Also the government is well behind the people on climate change, Iraq (even though it's not a major issue), social values etc etc.

But the absolute killer for Howard was his industrial relations reforms - many people saw Howard after that as they hadn't before - ideological and fanatical. They don't him like that. The sizeable number in polls suggest that while they might not be worse off, they think the policy does affect too many people in a negative fashion. Plus 11 1/2 years is a long time.

Would they be bequeathing, in addition to a strong economy, neglected public services and a crumbling infrastructure all around to any incoming Labor government?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Even Kevin Rudd believes it will be down to the wire,

Tony Blair thought that in 1997.

Labour also had the humiliation of 1992 to remember.

That was something of a blessing, not a humiliation, in hindsight

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

To be honest, the electorate have been waiting a while to get rid of him. Yes, the economy has done well under him, but as a whole people think Howard has damaged other elements of Australia's society. Unfortunately for him, he's fallen into the trap of people who do their jobs too well, people believe things will carry on regardless of their presence - Polls suggest people this.

Also the government is well behind the people on climate change, Iraq (even though it's not a major issue), social values etc etc.

But the absolute killer for Howard was his industrial relations reforms - many people saw Howard after that as they hadn't before - ideological and fanatical. They don't him like that. The sizeable number in polls suggest that while they might not be worse off, they think the policy does affect too many people in a negative fashion. Plus 11 1/2 years is a long time.

Would they be bequeathing, in addition to a strong economy, neglected public services and a crumbling infrastructure all around to any incoming Labor government?

Dave

In a way - I don't think infrastructure is crumbling. Education and Health are the biggies. We have a slightly screwed up system when it comes to funding and responsibility. For example, the states manage the hospitals, but the federal government is responsible for medicare - therefore GPs. Education is another tricky one - theoretically the states are responsible for it - but there is a weird arrangement for Universities and also schools.

It was revealed last week that the proportion of federal funding for public health had slipped to well below that of the states. The main reasons why the Government can claim increased funding on health and education are. a) the private health insurance rebate of 30% which is meant to encourage those who can afford it to take up private health cover - not to mention lifetime loading penalties if you don't take it up by the age of 30 and if you earn over 50k p/a. Also the feds have been pumping money into private/independent schools. But in practice the funding for public education has dropped significantly - also University funding was gutted in the first 2/3 years of the Howard government - they have increased it lately, but also increased the amounts student have to pay... so they still, as a proportion put it back to where it was in 1996, they also leave student finishing Univeristy with sizeable debts.

Lucky Rudd. Shouldn't have to borrow to the hilt putting things right then , if the public services and infrastructure are in good nick.  But he's not there yet . This game ain't over until the fat lady sings

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

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Maybe. But in Blair's case at least he really did think that the election was going to be fairly close.

I know on the Friday, getting absolutely inebriated in the 'Big Jug', I kept asking my mates to pinch me to ascertain whether I was still in the land of the living. 1997 exceeded my wildest dreams

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

A change still, seemingly, very likely I gather

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Is North Sydney in the Manly orbit? I'm familiar with Manly, it was where Fiona Thompson had her original boarding house in Sons and Daughters

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

There was a Galaxy Poll released today and it had the ALP leading 52-48 and are on target to win 15 seats. 1 shy of forming outright Government. Only time will tell.

From The Australian:

But the result of the election remains uncertain, with another poll in the Fairfax suggesting the gap remains considerable, at 57 per cent for Labor against 43 per cent to the Coalition.

Yes, only time tell if Howard can pull-off a Harry S Truman

Dave