Would Bayh win Indiana

[Democratic Hawk]

Yes, I think Bayh would win Indiana but it would be close. He'll get enough support from Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates to see him cross the finish line; however, I doubt he'd get the support of 35% of her Republicans and 37% of her conservatives

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

According to the CNN Indiana exit poll, Indiana comprises:

1. Party ID: 32% Democrat, 46% Republican and 22% Independent
2. Ideology: 14% Liberal, 43% Moderate and 42% Conservative

Bayh [Bush/Kerry in paranthesis] received the support of:

1) 92% [15% Bush/ 84% Kerry] of Democrats; 35% [95% Bush/5% Kerry] of Republicans; 73% [51% Bush/46% Kerry]] of Independents
2) 87% [21% Bush/79% Kerry] of Liberals; 77% [48% Bush/50% Kerry] of Moderates; 37% [85% Bush/14% Kerry] of Conservatives

Bayh’s base (c.62%) comprised as follows:

1) On a party ID level: Democrat 29.44 + Republican 16.1 + Independent 16.06 = 61.6%
2) On an ideological orientation level: Liberal 12.18 + Moderate 33.11 + Conservative 15.91 = 61.2%

I'm under no illusion that this would necessarily be repeated in a presidential race since his support may drop among Independents and moderates a little - and there's no way he'll secure 35% of the Republican and 37% of the conservative vote but he will poll better than Kerry among all these constituencies and I think he'll eek out a win in the region of 53:47

I doubt the vote against Condi Rice will harm him too much in Indiana, especially when he's stated that there was a better choice for Secretary of State: Indiana's own Richard Lugar

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

In sum, I think Bayh will carry Indiana narrowly unless his GOP opponent was Richard Lugar

Dave