The only way Florida Republicans lose the Governorship is if they nominate someone like Rep. Matt Gaetz.
Lt. Governor Nunez
AG Moody
and CFO Jimmy Patronis would all be heavy and I mean heavy Favourites in 2026.
Florida's politics are affected by constant changes in demography and who's moving into the state. The Republican boost right now is due to (A) more conservative Northerners and retirees moving to a state that promises fewer taxes and regulations and (B) a Republican surge amongst Hispanic voters who are not supportive of the "Woke" agenda and who respond to the emphasis the GOP places on that. This, of course, could change. Miami's Cuban Republicans have always been somewhat more moderate than, say, Republicans in The Villages, and there could be an influx of new migrants that are more Democratic and liberal (e. g. young college grads seeking new jobs that are created as a result of population growth). This is a state that was 61-39 for Bush over Dukakis in 1988 and 48-43 for Clinton in 1996.
