Considering Nelson lost, she probably would have also lost narrowly.
Nelson ran a sleepy and lame campaign against a well organized opponent, who had high approvals as departing governor. I think Graham would have ran a better campaign and narrowly pulled it off.
Agreed all around.
Gillum lost because he turned off just enough swing voters in Miami's Cuban community, who were turned off by Gillum's Bernie-esque campaign, which reminded some of Cuban socialism. Accurate? Not really. Perception? Gillum identified himself with a man who described himself as a Democratic Socialist. His percentage of the vote in Miami-Dade County was less than Hillary's, which offset gains he did make.
I voted for Gillum, but Gwen Graham would have won.