Would Gwen Graham have won Florida's 2018 gubernatorial election?

[Jesus save us]

De Santis beat Gillum by a mere 0.4%... however, the Democratic primary was exceedingly close, with Graham falling from her initially dominant position in the race to lose by a mere 3%.

Graham being nominated would possibly mean lower black turnout- but I wonder if she might have had more crossover appeal, enough to swing what was a very close election?

[Annatar]

She would have lost far worse, she wouldn’t have been able to energise dem turnout like Gillum did, she probably loses by 5%

[TML]

Ask Senator Patrick Murphy about this.

[Mr. Smith]

Maybe if Adam Putnam was her opponent instead of DeSantis.

If DeSantis could win against Gillum, he likely was already set to win anyway. But Putnam wouldn't have excited the base.

[😥]

She and Nelson would win

[Frenchrepublican]

She does a bit better among white voters but turnout among black voters would have been lower qo it's a wash

[Xing]

Considering Nelson lost, she probably would have also lost narrowly.

[Nyvin]

I think she would've won.

[Roll Roons]

I actually think she would have. Gillum wasn't some Obama-level god-tier candidate. He was flawed -he had an FBI investigation hanging over his head, and took a lot of positions that were just too far left for the state (abolish ICE, Medicare for All).

To those citing Murphy and Nelson, DeSantis was a much weaker opponent than Rubio or Scott. He wasn't an incumbent Senator or a two-term Governor with a huge personal fortune.

[Gracile]

I don't think she would have won. Graham would not get the same enthusiasm among black voters and younger voters that Gillum got (despite losing, there is evidence to suggest that he did increase turnout among these groups relative to 2016 and 2014). Also, given the way Nelson was rejected by white voters in places like the Panhandle, I have a hard time seeing Graham making sufficient inroads with "moderate" whites enough to offset lackluster turnout among young voters/black voters.

[Young Conservative]

Obviously yes, and the revisionist apologist history of progressive Gillum stans doesn’t change that fact.

[President Johnson]

Considering Nelson lost, she probably would have also lost narrowly.

Nelson ran a sleepy and lame campaign against a well organized opponent, who had high approvals as departing governor. I think Graham would have ran a better campaign and narrowly pulled it off.

[Orser67]

As with so many threads on this board, the answer to this question seems to depend largely on whether you believe Democrats need to focus more on liberal/minority turnout or on winning moderate/conservative swing voters.

[Donerail]

Anyone who says they know for sure is probably selling you something.

[smoltchanov]

She and Nelson would win

[Podgy the Bear]

Yes, she would have won.  Gillum was a horrible candidate.  And FBI investigations don't help--unless you're Trump.

[Mr. Smith]

At this point, the question ought be, "Would Adam Putnam have ensured Democrats the win the governorship of Florida?"

[Lechasseur]

At this point, the question ought be, "Would Adam Putnam have ensured Democrats the win the governorship of Florida?"

The answer there is probably yes, and I also think had Putnam been the GOP nominee Nelson would still be a senator.

[ElectionsGuy]

Impossible to tell since it was so close, but it wouldn't have been much different from Gillum's result.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, polls overstated Gillum's support.

[coolface1572]

Do you people actually think Adam Putnam would have lost? He would have crushed Gillum.

Also Graham probably would have barely won. She wouldn't have got as much black turnout, but also didn't have an FBI probe against her.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. She also would have run relatively evenly with Nelson and lost. Maybe the polls would have been more honest though and portrayed that in the lead-up possibly making her campaign less complacent. But then again, the Senate race polls were off too.

[Skill and Chance]

Lean no because Nelson couldn't win FL-SEN. 

[MT Treasurer]

Lean no because Nelson couldn't win FL-SEN. 

Ron DeSantis was a far weaker opponent to run against than Rick Scott.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida doesnt have an income tax; Graham was a fiscal hawk, and Gullium, was a tax and spend liberal. FL will vote more Dem friendly in Prez elections than midterms due to the tax issue