Is the Blue Wave dead?

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Given that Justice Kennedy is now retiring from SCOTUS, it's obvious that the dynamics of the midterms have changed, and turnout is going to be historic.

The question is, do you think turnout will favor the GOP candidates or the Dems more?  Or both equally?

You decide.  Vote in the poll!

This will mobilize religious conservatives; that's for sure.

From a strategic point of view, I suspect that the Democrats stonewalling the nomination MAY backfire.  Holding up the nomination will motivate many Republicans (especially the religious conservatives and 2nd Amendment enthusiasts) to show up in numbers.  If Kennedy's replacement is confirmed with little fanfare, there will be less desperation on the part of the GOP, and a possible tendency toward complacency.  At that point, the election stands a better chance at being something of a referendum on Trump, which is the best strategy for Democrats at this point.

The GOP will ram Kennedy's replacement through.  They have the numbers now.  There is some advantage for the Democrats to quietly let that happen, but they are righteously angry over bottling up Merrick Garland, so I understand why they may find punting here to be unacceptable.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I don't see how this motivates religious voters at all.

Assuming Republicans aren't stupid and they confirm a justice before the midterms we're back to the status-quo. They get another 'win' under their belt and another thing to sell to the base, but I doubt there's some great segment of voters out there who were thinking "Well, I wasn't sure with Gorsuch, but now with two Gorsuchs they've got my vote!"

If the Republicans don't vote before the midterms... well, why wouldn't they? To motivate turnout? The question becomes, and one Trump would definitely be asking, why aren't you just voting on it now when you know you have the votes. Why go through the extra drama when everyone knows you'll still have the votes in the lame-duck period, if you lose the midterms. This isn't February of 2016 where if Hillary Clinton wins you're for sure going have a Democrat to deal with for the next four years. Trump is still going to be President after November, there's no liberal justice coming down the pipeline.

If anything the likelier reaction would be complacency on the right since they've effectively won, and outrage (and motivation to vote) on the left because there's nothing really else to do, if it even matters at all.  

I am not a "religious conservative" down the line on every issue that such folks usually are, but those sort of folks are whom I fellowship with reqularly.  

They are not always the best informed on political issues.  They believe what they hear on FOX and from their closed circles.  And what they see on social media.  One of my closer friends, a guy who thinks highly of me, was telling me of Obama's plan to convert closed shopping malls and military bases into re-education camps of some sort.  He was serious.  (I know I've told him that I voted for Obama in 2012, but he thinks I'm a great guy, so he's in denial of that.  And he's a good friend, so I maintain my own denial of his belief in some things that are downright wacky.)

There are two (2) issues that these folks, to a person, are not confused about.  One is the fact that America is a GREAT nation and it is their job to see that it is a GODLY nation.  And the second fact is that the SCOTUS is the vehicle that has fostered the progressive un-Godliness of America.  It was the SCOTUS that kicked God out of the public schools by eliminating prayer and Bible reading.  It was the SCOTUS that ushered in the abomination of abortion, and the murder of unborn children.  It was the SCOTUS that established SSM, an abomination in the eyes of God.  These things are FACTS to these folks; they accept these things as axioms just as the LGBTQ folks accept the idea that one is "born LGBTQ" axiomatically.

The part that is absolutely true, and not up for debate, is that prohibitions on school prayer, abortion on demand, and SSM (to name three) are things that were ushered in by the SCOTUS.  They weren't legislated.  These folks may not be policy wonks but they understand what the SCOTUS did and the process by which it can be undone.  That's not rocket science.  They understand that Donald Trump will appoint a SCOTUS Justice that will reverse what they loathe, and that the GOP Senate will confirm this.  And they're about to actually GAIN GROUND; Kennedy was the enemy on THEIR issues.  They're already motivated.  It'll only increase.